Prohibit has generally taken a couple of runs to get back to his best and does look a good ground horse in general. He was poor enough last time in the Kings Stand but didn’t appear to get a great run and the ground may have been too soft. Back here in what is admittedly a good listed race with a couple of runs under his belt he could easily get back to form and the 14.5 on Betfair looks great value.

2 Points win 14.5 Betfair

Majestic Dream does not look out of this by any means at a big price. He ran ok last time out on soft ground here, but the extra furlong here and better gorund could easily see an improvement. he is a big looking 44 win and 7 place on betfair and looks worth a small bet

1/2 point win/place betfair 44/7

15:00 York, John Smith’s Cup

This is an unbelievably tough race, and as far as I can see there is a fair amount of questions to be answered by some of the fancied horses. I’m going to go with an outsider with a small chance in King’s Warrior . He was a very decent handicapper in France on softer ground and although York has survived much of the rain it is still good-soft ground and this should get him back to his first 2 runs over here this year when he was a good 2^nd on both starts. A couple of poorer runs on ground too firm followed but he is in here of what looks a half decent mark with a low weight and possibly still a bit of improvement in his judging by the way he has finished both those runs earlier this year. He hasn’t the best of draws here but looks worth a small min risk for value at a huge price on Betfair

½ Point win Betfair 55 ½ point place 7.4

14:25 York, John Smith’s Silver Cup

Tepmokea looks an interesting candidate judging by his very good run last week in the Old Newton Cup at Haydock. He was perfectly positioned all the way and rallied gamely in the end again to keep 3^rd. Even though he is effectively 4lbs worse of today he looks to be back to form and in general he has been better on Good ground so could easily improve today for the step up in trip. Im surprised he is one of the outsider’s here and given that he has a few times in the past ran well after a quick turnaround he looks worth a small bet at a decent looking 30 on Betfair. The place price of 6.4 looks very enticing as well given that Betfair has 4 places on this.

1 Point win 1Point place Betfair 30/6.4

15:20 Newmarket, Darley July Cup

This has all the hallmarks of a surprise result with the state of the ground, and Im again going with Genki. He ran an eye-catching race last time out at Ascot when he possibly made his move too early and tired in the finish, but if he can time his run better here in a vastly inferior race he’ll stand a decent chance. Society Rock possibly looks value even as favourite at 3/1 as he really should win this given his run in that same race and his liking for soft ground. Genki’s odds of placing here are considerably better that the 9.4 on Betfair and that’s worth a bet.

½ Point win 42 Betfair 1 Point place 9.4

14:40 Newmarket, 32Red Bunbury Cup

King Of Jazz is an interesting runner here, and although he was poor enough when well supported for his last 2 runs over 6 Furlongs it’s his 3^rd at Ascot on Soft Ground over 7 that gets the eye here. He travelled well and finished superbly for his best run in a long time and is 1lb lower today. Im hoping that today is his target after that run and looks well worth a bet at 24 on Betfair at the moment. He has a similar profile this year as the Favourite Bonnie Brea who was 2^nd in that race and he is now 5lbs better off with him and 4 times the price.

1Point win 1 Point Place Betfair 24/5

Last minute tip.
Clockmaker looks overpriced at 11/1 in the 2:20 at Haydock. He loves the soft and his 2nd last run was eyecatching on soft.

1pt win 11/1 various

I Finally updated my figures for the first time in a while, and i must admit i was fearing the worst, but its isn’t as bad as i expected as I’m down 17 points after a bad run for June, but it’s a gettable total and there were many near misses and heavily backed horses over that time.

• LongshotValue v Pricewise Current Score PW -53 LV -17..5

Sandown 2:05

Medicean Man is a relatively straight forward selection for this race based on his superb run in the king’s stand at Ascot this year. He beat the 1^st and 2^nd fav for this race when finishing 4^th and on a review of the race he beat them well finishing strongly after a somewhat troubled passage. His run a few days later in the Wokingham can be ignored as it probably came too soon. In not quite sure why he is available at 15 on Betfair while Night Carnation and Spirit Quarts are 5.5 and 6.2. He has been steadily improving this year and if he can continue that today that price is going to look very big.

2 Points win 15 Betfair

Sandown 2:40

Kyllachy Star is one of the more consistent handicappers in the field and has a bit in his favour here today. He has been running well this year particularly on his seasonal debut when 2^nd at Doncaster of this mark. He has 2 decent runs after that at chester on soft ground but the good – soft ground here should be ideal for him. He almost always runs his race and 22/1 with 4 places looks a very good bet considering this. He is also down to his lowest mark for a while and really should be able to get into the places here.

1Point EW 22/1 VCBet

Sandown 3:45

Monterosso is another relatively straight forward selection for value here. There really shouldn’t be much between him and the Fav Farhh here on all known form. Granted that Farhh does have a much more progressive profile, but Monterosso has been improving steadily since he went to Godolphin culminating is a superb with in the Dubai World Cup this year.  Given the open looking nature of the race he looks the value here at 15 on Betfair.

2 Points win 15 Betfair

3:25 Haydock

This is going to be  a tough race on the ground, and im tempted to go with a couple of decent priced horses who have run well on soft before. Hillview Boy as had very little racing over the last few years, but did look like he could get back to form soon judging by his last run on soft ground at York. He has won of higher marks before and look worth a small bet. In addition Kiama Bay is also interesting here as he has some very decent soft ground form and didn’t look to stay the distance in the Chester Cup. Back to 1m 4f here should be ideal and looks a bit of value.

1 Point win 12/1 Hillview Boy Stan James

1 Point win 14/1 Kiama Bay Stan James

Oil Strike to be honest deserves to be the outsider of this field on his form this year, but he did look a bit better last time out and all his good runs last year were on soft ground. It’s a gut feeling selection that he might be about to strike at a good price. He is down to a very workable mark and with a 7lbs claimer on tonight hes worth a small bet at a huge price.

1 Point win Betfair 30

Remember Alexander did me a favour last year at a very decent price and looks to be well underestimated here. Ignoring her last run which was over to far having moved up from 8 to 12 furlongs, and finished behind a few of these, she is well capable of getting involved here at a huge looking 22 on Betfair. In the race before she had Soon behind and Duntle just ahead in a Group 3. This Listed race over 10 Furlongs should be right in her wheelhouse and is a step down in class from her previous runs. She will like the soft ground having won a Group3 beating Parish Hall last year on soft at Leopardstown. Any reproduction of her best form over this hopefully ideal trip give her a great chance of winning here despite having to give a few pounds away here having a penalty for the aforementioned group race success.

2 Points win 2 Points Place Betfair 22 / 5.2

Pleasant Day hits a couple of alarm bells for me today in this decent midweek race. He is down to his lowest mark ever after a very reasonable season opening performance at Newmarket. He has been very poor since then, but has blinkers re applied today along with Lee Topliss to take of 3lbs. He does seem to be best on a softer surface and has one particularly good performance on the only time he has raced on Soft as a 2yo at Newbury over 7 Furlong’s when 2^nd in a Group 3.  His mark today is certainly exploitable and he looks worth a bet in case today is the day.

1 Point win Betfair 16.0

16:25 Salisbury

Vainglory, is almost back down to his last winning mark and has looked in his last 2 runs as if he’s not far away from another big run. He handles the ground perfectly and was 2^nd in this last year of 1lb higher for this rider. Shavansky was 3^rd last year of 3lbs higher and has again shown recently that he is about to have a decent run with a good 2^nd on the all weather. Although the winner from last year Leviathan is also in the race of a lower mark , he has been very poor this year and as sure as I am that he’ll be better today also at a decent price I can’t go for 3 so I’ll leave him out and be suitably annoyed if he wins.

1 Point win Vainglory 14/1 Bet365

1 Point win Shavansky 16/1 Bet365