Royal Ascot Day 1

1:15

It’s not often I’m bowled over by a big price but I was very surprised that Flaming Spear was as big as 25/1 here. His first run last year was as good as he ever was in a top class group 2 race. He simply wasn’t the same after that. He also has a record of throwing in very poor runs and turning it around again after. He has some very good runs at Ascot along with a good record fresh. I’m hopeful he will be ready to go here. That run last year is at least 10 lbs. better than his current rating of 100, and with 6 places available in a few places, he is a max EW bet.

3 Points EW 25/1 6 places Paddy/betfair/sky

4:40 

Ashutor stood our for me here at a big price. He has some eyepopping form on the flat in french staying races, and off this mark he can get involved if he improves on his hurdles form.

1 Point EW 40/1 5 pl hills/vc 4pl 365

4:50

This race has been one of the more straightforward over the years.  Runners that have run well before are more than likely going to go well again. TheInval fits the bill here at a big price. He has been placed of this mark twice and has only had a few runs with issues over the last year or 2. He is Nicky Hendersons only runner in this race and is sure to have been prepared with this in mind. Were easily getting the price to find out.

2 Points EW 33/1 5 places generally

3:30

TobeFair is not that far behind these on ratings and is overlooked here. He will be running up the hill here when many have cried enough. Paddy Power 4 places in the w/o market looks superb value. But there 80/1 in standard EW is also value. I’d be more interested in the w/o market.

2 Points EW 33/1 w/o fav 4 places paddy power

2:10

I’m hoping I’ve hit on a nice piece of value here. Dingo Dollar has been running well in the best handicap chase of the year for the last 2 years. I think he will be better off here over a slightly shorter trip. He has also warmed up in hurdle races every year, and I’ve had a look at those he does not jump like a chaser at all and is in fact a very decent jumper of hurdles. If that means he can run to the same standard over hurdles he would be well in here. We’ll know our fate early as he’ll will be better if he can get to the front.

1 Point EW 50/1 7 places paddy 6places elsewhere

4:10

Kauto Relko finished 8 in this last year after being miles behind 2 out. He will need to jump better but has put in some very good performances this year in top class races. IF he is in the picture at all turning for home were in with a shout. He’s about twice the price I expected him to be.

1 Point EW 66/1 6 places sky 5 place generally

5:30

Le Breuil looks well in here but he is well found in the market. It looks a poor enough race to me and Coup De Pinceau look an unexposed horse with potential to improve here. The fact that Paul Nichols has given him a break and runs him here after a wind surgery points to it being a bit of a target and were getting a decent price for our gamble.

1 Point EW 50/1 5 places Generally

4:10

I had changed my mind here from Vision Des Flow, so I’ll go for win bet just in case. I feel he may be better suited to the strong pace here as he has been too free in his races He is a classy individual and I wouldn’t be surprised if he ran well here.

1 Point win 28/1 various

2:50 Coral Cup

I’m going with 2 Willie Mullins outsiders here. Sayo is a horse I’ve expected to run a big race at some stage for a while. I thought there was positives in his last 2 runs, and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he improved here. He also was 3^rd in a good triumph on soft/heavy ground. In addition Mr Blue Sky was a nice novice last year who also didn’t get the run of the race at Leopardstown.

2 Points EW 80/1 7 places Paddy Sayo

1 Point EW 50/1 6 places Ladbrokes/Coral

4:50

Saint DOroux seems to be overlooked here. He was a good 4^th behind a couple of grade 1 performers and a very easy winner of an admittedly poor race at Gowran. He really seems to love the heavy ground there and I’m not sure why he is a big price.

1 Point EW 20/1 ¼ place 365

Sent on twitter earlier on today

Supreme 1:30

Elixir Dainay, travels like a horse that will enjoy the fast pace here. He didn’t stay last time over 2:6 as he pulled too hard and that is why he is a huge price is. He was beaten by Envoi Allen by 3 lengths and again pulled to hard at times. The pace of this race should suit him and he should get a lead here. If Envoi Allen really is the second coming, this one won’t be too far away here. It’s also possible that Abracadabras should be fav on form and is also possible value.

2 Points EW 25/1 4 places lads/vc/uni/coral/betway

Ultima 2:50

We already have Discorama here at a huge price, but I like Activial here at a big price. He ran well here last year of a higher mark, really caught the eye travelling well behind Native River on his only run this year and is 6 pounds lower than last year. Previous race form is key in this and 28/1 is value.

1 Point EW 28/1 6 places paddy/betfair

4:50

Jarvery’s Plate has been on my mind for this for a while. He has some good form and is a bit inconsistent. Beating Reserve Tank first run this year is top class. He also ran better than the result in the Grade 1 at Kempton (he got badly hampered by a faller turning for home). We’re hoping for a going day here but he’s a big price.

1 Point EW 33/1 5 Places Generally

2:10 Arkle

I’ve liked Rouge Vif for this since seeing him trounce Nube Negra. I’m not sure about the Irish form and  the fact that they are all top of the market make some of the English horses value.

1 Point win 12/1 Gen

3:30 Champion

I’m torn between Sharjah for the win and Petit Mouchoir ew, but although it seems Sharjah needs good ground I’m not 100% about that. I just think he has on and off days. He won the Galway Hurdle easily on soft ground. He has easily the best form in this race and Patrick Mullins was happy with him travelling in similar ground last year here before a fall. 14/1 is the value here.

1 Point win 14/1 generally

Ive been posting these on twitter, here is the list of tips so far.

Chel. NRNB

Stayers

Paisley Park looks nailed on, but my gut tells me Penhill is working up to a big performance. He is 11 at the festival and has been steadily improving.I think he is the 2nd best horse in the race, he’ll go of this price to win

2 pts w/o fav 15/2 sky 7/1 pad

Cheltenham County Hurdle.

I’ve been waiting for nrnb here for a while . Aramon ran well last time in the grade 1 and if he gets the mark that looks likely he should go very close here . Better ground will be a big bonus . Any mark near 150 is fine

2 points ew 20/1 NRNB 365

Chelt Martin Pipe.

In a midweek race last week I spotted McFabulous dancing in , in what looked a decent race . Very good Jumper!. I looked in to see what price he was for the supreme , and noticed he was give a mark of 132 . I mean I don’t know how!

 2 pt win 20/1 nrnb 365

Cheltenham Grand Annual

This year has been a disappointment for Us and Them, but not everything went his way. Better ground and course form would have him close here, off what will more than likely be a workable mark . If he’s here he’ll be ready to go

1 point ew 33/1 nrnb paddy

Cheltenham Ultima

Discorama seems a forgotten horse.His course record is superb with 2 festival 2nds. His first run this year worked out and the trainer has said he will he kept for festival run . His mark should be about 148 . Won’t go if not ready!

2 points ew 33/1 365 nrnb

2:25 Curragh

Invincible Army, traveled as well as anything on his last run and I think he got found out by the soft ground. This trip could be right up his street.

2 Points win 12/1 Various

3:35 Curragh

Iberia’s Maiden win has worked out really well. He may not have been suited by softer ground on his last run and was the subject of a gamble. My gut is he may not be too far away from his stable companions here.

1 Point ew 40/1 Gen

4:10 Curragh

Capri was trained for the Gold cup and he didn’t stay. His last run was a nice enough trial after a break and I think he has a huge chance here, given normal improvement. This is a Max bet for me

3 Points EW 16/1 VC/365

1:20 Curragh

Well go for 1 from each side here. Tresorier won his side in this last year and has had very few runs since, this surely has been the plan. Ardhoomey has plenty of runs this year that make a mark of 97 well within his grasp

1 Point EW 33/1 6 places Tresorier

1 Point EW 20/1 5 places Ardhoomey

1:50 Doncaster

Konchek has looked like he will be suited by a step back in trip and he improved last time. 3y’o have been winning everything and he is the only on in the field. I’ve actually gone for 30/1 5 places with 365, in the extra place specials market.

1 Point EW 30/1 5 places 365.

3:00 Doncaster

Royal Dornoch is 3lbs better off with Threat for his run at Goodwood, when he was on the wrong side but really caught the eye. If he improves on that he’ll get close to treat.

1 Point win 25/1 generally

3:35 Doncaster

Western Australia, is a horse I expected to get value with this year at some stage, and this looks to be that time. We’ll our fate early if he goes too fast in front but if not he can get involved in the finish here at a huge price. His 2 yo form is very good.

2 Points EW 66/1 Gen

3:40 Leopardstown

Norway is the best horse in this race, we’ve missed the 10/1 but 8/1 is still value. He surly won’t go haring off in front here.

2 Points win 8/1 365

4:15 Leopardstown

Anthony Van Dyke is clearly the 2^nd best horse in this race if we can ignore his last poor run. He has a turn of foot at the end of his races and I think this race will suit him. We’ll go with a win and a w/o bet here.

1 Point win 12/1 Gen 2 Points w/o Magical 15/2 365/lads