Grande Steeplechase De Paris

Auteuil 3:15

I’ve had a look at the last 2 running’s of this and the winner of both of these So French won them pretty easily, and beat most of these running today. He has had a significant injury and is back here under a cloud. 3m6furlongs on Good-Soft ground in my mind is exactly what Djakadam wants. He stays forever but probably doesn’t really have a finishing kick over any trip. The way these races are run i don’t think he will need it, as his cruising speed may well be too much for most of these. I went through every horse with a chance to find some collateral form and eventually found in the the name of Alary. French chasers have always been behind the British and Irish  ones in my opinion.  There is some odd fences but nothing to silly, and Djakadam is a superb jumper in the main. Heart ruling head but so be it.

2 Points win 8/1 paddy/betfair/lads and others

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Long Shot Saturay

3:40 Newbury.

War Decree although at times looking like a bit of a stayer, in my mind will be far more suited to this fast 1 mile of fast ground that anything he has raced on since he was a 2yo. He has some reasonable form but is relatively unexposed over this trip and I think 66/1 is decent value. The market seems all wrong to me and I’d love to see Lancaster Bomber win but I’d have been hoping for a bigger price.

1 Point EW 66/1 4 Places paddy VC

York LongShot

2:55

Danzeno is fit from running in Meyden and showed up well last time out when running to a mark better than his 102 here. Anytime he has come down to around this mark he has been competitive in handicaps and i cant see anything that changes that now. To me he looks to have a class advantage here. He actually seems like the most likely winner and is value at 12/1 .

2 Points win 12/1 Generally

5:35

Ghayyar looks a decent middle distance prospect when he won his maiden in Newmarket at 2. He has been a disappointment since really, but has changed stables to a trainer who goes well here, and did catch the eye a bit first time out this year on unsuitable soft ground. This ground and trip could well bring a bit of improvement and claw back some untapped potential. He’s easily worth the risk at 66/1

1 Point EW 66/1 Generally

Long Shot Saturday

Ascot 4:00

Masham Star looks a good start in trying to find value here. He is on a very good mark and if we ignore his last run he is well capable of getting involved here at a big price. He has plenty of very good handicap form of marks in or around 100 to make his mark of 88 today very interesting. 33/1 is value. In order to go for one on each side in having a stab at Mr Scaramanga at a huge price drawn 1. He has been in good form this year on the all-weather easily running to his mark here. I wouldn’t be too surprised if he reproduced some decent course form here.

2 Points EW 33/1 6 places Masham Star Paddy/sky/lads/coral

1 Point EW 50/1 6 places Mr Scaramanga  Paddy/lads/coral

 

Haydock 2:00

Viconte Du Noyer just can’t be ignored here of a very low hurdles mark. Especially since he came back to form a bit last time at punchestown. He is totally unexposed over hurdles at this trip and he certainly stays this far over fences. 22/1 is easily worth the risk here.

2 Points  win 22/1 365/sky/betway/vc

Long Shot Saturday

Ascot 4:00

Masham Star looks a good start in trying to find value here. He is on a very good mark and if we ignore his last run he is well capable of getting involved here at a big price. He has plenty of very good handicap form of marks in or around 100 to make his mark of 88 today very interesting. 33/1 is value. In order to go for one on each side in having a stab at Mr Scaramanga at a huge price drawn 1. He has been in good form this year on the all-weather easily running to his mark here. I wouldn’t be too surprised if he reproduced some decent course form here.

2 Points EW 33/1 6 places Masham Star Paddy/sky/lads/coral

1 Point EW 50/1 6 places Mr Scaramanga  Paddy/lads/coral

Chester Vase Longshot

Chester Vase 3:35

Everything has its price and even though he is drawn wide and had a poor run first time out this season, Vent De Force has plenty of form over the last few years which will give him a shout here of a mark of 100 and a price of 66/1. The Positives outweigh the negatives at that price. There wouldn’t be a lot between him and the likes of Fun Mac who is only 12/1.

1 Point EW 66/1 5 places VC/Paddy

1000 Guineas

3:35 Newmarket
IF we ignore Madeline’s run in the Breeders Cup where she met all kinds of trouble in running, I think she could be in with a small squeak here. Her 3rd behind Clemmie, and Different League could be some of the best form on offer here, and in that I think she may be better over this trip. 80/1 with 4 places Is huge.
2 Points EW 80/1 4 places Paddy/lads/fred/tote

2:55 Newmarket
It looks a bit early to write off Tis Marvellous. He ran well first time out in Mayden and if we forgive him his second run there he stands a chance here of 100. 33/1 is too big for a horse with plenty of potential still.
1 Point EW 33/1 Generally

First big Flat Saturday

3:35 Newmarket
This looks a poor enough 2000, and I think the 2 main AOB hopes have to many negatives for the price. I do like Murrillo as a horse. He looked green last year but still has some very good form. The better ground here will certainly give him a better chance and I wouldn’t be surprised if he could get involved here. We are of course betting on that he isn’t a pure pacemaker but were getting enough of a price to factor that in.
1 Point EW 50/1 4 places paddy/betfair/lads
2:20 Newmarket
This looks a very poor renewal and on form alone Mirza has as good a chance as any of these. He is 11 but was near top form last year. He has also performed well in most of his first time out races. 25/1 is too big in a race where most of them are about the same standard. We’ll have a bet w/o the fav here as well just in case he runs to his mark.
1 Point win 25/1 Generally
1 Point win 16/1 w/o Havana grey 365/hills
2:55 Newmarket
I don’t think Defoe has really beaten anything of note and it looks entirely possible that Count Octave is a better horse. His run in a top-class Ledger last year where he didn’t really stay in the softer ground really looks good in the context of this race and I can’t have the difference in price.
2 Points win 13/2 Various

3:55 Uttoxeter
Doesn’t American just win here. He has a huge amount in hand and I don’t think he would be going here without being in form. His rider has a great strike rate for the trainer, and I just think he is far too classy for a race like this. I’m also pretty sure the good/soft will suite him.
2 Points win 5/1 generally

1:50 Newmarket
Battle of Marathon has been in fine form on the All Weather will have a bit in hand on a few of these fitness wise and is capable of a mark of 100 if everything goes right for him. 66/1 is worth the risk
1 Point EW 66/1 various

2000 Guineas Ante Post

2000 Guineas Ante Post

I think U S Navy Flag was the best 2 year old last year. His win in the Dewhurst was outstanding and it’s an easy pick to go for him at 20/1 for the 2000. The ground will more than likely be good, we can easily forget his seasonal opener on heavy ground and even that will put him right for the big day. In fact I think he is a horse that needs to be ready early to take advantage of his experience over other less experienced colts. 20/1 is massive.

2 Points win 20/1 paddy/sky/betfair/boyles

Long Shot Saturday

Sandown 3:35

I can’t split the 2 Tizzard runners Theatre Guide and Royal Vacation here. They have both had light a season, with a fair amount of disappointment, but I’m guessing that today’s race may well be the target for both. The stable is in fine form and it looks reasonable to me that both will get involved here at huge prices.

1 Point EW 33/1 365 5 places ¼ Theatre Guide and Royal Vacation

Punchestown 5:35
Abbyssial wasn’t put into the race at all last time out and I just get the feeling he will run a lot better today. He has plenty of class and ran well after a very long break first time out this year. This is a pure gut feeling selection at 50/1
1 Point EW 50/1 6 places Paddy

Punchestown 3:50

Apples Jade looks a near certain winner here, so I’m going with one at a big price in the without market. Asthuria looks significantly underestimated here. She has run well here before and wasn’t far behind Benie Des Dieux when they met over fences. She has run already this week but that was a very good run behind Footpad and it seems to me that she is in very good form. If she can run to form again in a week she won’t be too far away here at 33/1 w/o the fav is a huge price.

2 Points EW 33/1 w/o FAV paddy 25/1 w/o fav generally.

3:10 Punchestown
Last year’s race looked much stronger than this renewal and Heron Heights was a very good 3rd of 2lbs higher. He has had just 1 run this year when midfield around Leopardstown and I wouldn’t be surprised if this was the plan and he will improve significantly. 25/1 is certainly value
1 Point EW 25/1 4 places Paddy