Long Shot Saturday

Sandown 1:45

I’m a big fan on Sceau Royal and I think he is well overpriced here. He was better than any of these over hurdles and has taken really well to fences. He just failed to give North Hill Harvey 5lbs at Cheltenham and I think this stronger race will suit his racing style. 8/1 is double his real price here

2 Points win 8/1 Generally       

 

Aintree 1:30

The Young Master is worth a small bet here. He is well capable of running well of this mark and actually has form in the past on heavy ground.  He is a massive price because of his 2 falls around here but I’m not going to watch SWC win again around here at 40/1 and not have a tiny bet on.

In addition Lord Windermere has a good record fresh and ran a great race in last year’s national of this mark. There is a big negative in that they are surly going to have him ready for the big dance but 40/1 makes it a risk worth taking.

1 Point win 40/1 The Young Master 365/hills/betway/vc

1 Point win 40/1 Lord Windermere 365/hills

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Sunday Long Shot

2:35 Fairyhouse

Townshend is an outrageous price here on the back of a not so good run around a silly track like Galway last time out. He got a bit behind after the last 2 and couldn’t make it up. The form of his Novice Chase win around Roscommon could not have worked out any better and he won that well against a very high class field. He is about 5 times the price he should be here and that means it time to bet. I think he is about a 12/1 shot here so the wallet can be opened at the 50/1 available.  We’ll certainly get a run for our money as he is very likely to be in there with a shot coming down to the last 2 here as he is a strong traveller and a good jumper most of the time.

2 Points win 50/1 365/hills/betfair/paddy/boyles

2:05 Fairyhouse

I fancy 2 young horses here with some improvement in them . West Coast Time was a big talking horse a while ago and has been disappointing on the face of it, but it would hardly be a surprise if he suddenly improved of what seems a nice mark here.

In addition Houses of Parliament already has the form in the book to be competitive  here of this mark . 33/1 is too big for him .

1 point win West Coast Time 22/1 generally

1 point ew Houses of Parliament 33/1 5 places lads/paddy/Betfair/Boyles

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Longshot Saturday

3:00 Newbury

This looks a particularly weak Hennessy and I’m going to go with the hope that Coneygree wouldn’t be here if he wasn’t well and if he is he could give these a routing. The ground should be fine and his style will be suited to this race. Hopefully he never sees another horse. 18/1 looks far too big to me.

I’m also going to have a tiny saver on Regal Encore at a huge price. He is fairly shorts odds/on to pull up but on the days he doesn’t he is a very decent horse and 100/1 makes it a chance worth taking.

2 Points win 18/1 Coneygree 365/betfair/paddy and others

½ Point EW 100/1 Regal Encore 6 places  betfair 5 places paddy/365

1:50 Newbury

I’ve convinced myself that Old Guard is going to be too good for these in what looks ideal conditions. The step up in trip and decent ground are all in his favour and of the same mark as his very good 3rd in the Greatwood he won’t be far away here. 7/1 is 3 points too big.

2 Points win 7/1 365/hills/vc

1:20 Newbury

Junction Fourteen is on a mark he can certainly win of here if he decided to put in a decent shift. He has plenty of class but often throws the toys out and doesn’t compete. I think there is enough chance of him getting involved here to make his price of 18/1 look decent in this race. We got the winner of this last year with a similar horse.

1 Point EW 18/1 Generally

Troytown Longshot

Navan 2:35

This is a pretty straightforward pick . Rogue Angel got fairly close to placing last time out for us at a big price and he is a few pounds lower here today . He is proven in these races and we’ll get a better run for our money than his price of 50/1 should indicate .  If he improves at all from his last run he’ll be in the firing line here .

1 pt ew 50/1 5 places paddy/Betfair

Long Shot Saturday

Not much in the way of racing to suit my type of selections today but looking forward to seeing the Betfair Chase
Haydock 2:25

Surprise Surprise, I’m going with outsider of the whole field here. Fingerontheswitch appeared to me to like the soft ground last time out the way he traveled and for a horse who had almost no form on soft that augurs well for him here with only 9:9 to carry. This will be a slog of the highest order and its going to be difficult to carry weight around here. This horse was a better hurdler than he has been a chaser the last year or 2 and looks on a reasonable mark even though he is 3lbs out of the handicap. The very good 5lbs claimer on will put him in with a chance at a huge price.

1 Point EW 6 places 50/1 Betfair/sky 5 places paddy

Tuesday Value

6:40 Kemton

So Beloved has a fair bit in his favour here. He was excellent 2 runs ago in France and just unlucky last time out in Ireland. He is well capable of winning this and 12/1 is value. As tempting as the 4 places with paddy is, for an almost certain placer the price simply isn’t big enough for me to go EW.

1 Point win 12/1 generally

Long Shot Sunday

3:00

Old Guard has been on my mind for this for a while now. I think he needs a fast 2 miles like this and has won on soft ground around here before. He has been close for us a few times over a longer trip last year. He really looked good last time out and I find it difficult to knock him out of the places here at a good price.  25/1 with 5 places looks great value with paddy and betfair

2 Points EW 25/1 5 places paddy/betfair 20/1 6 places sky

 

2:15

Lets face it Faugheen wins this without a doubt if he is anywhere near fit, but I think Campeador is making a decent price for Jezki . The ground may well not be in his favour and he is getting on but I still think he is a fair way clear of Campeador and if Faugheen isn’t right he should win. 7/1 13/2 is silliness.

1 Point win 13/2 Generally

Long Shot Saturday

2:25

Splash of Ginge is a horse that always looks capable of a big run around here . He has a few very good runs in these races of much higher marks and although he was poor enough first time out this season , I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he improved dramatically here . 50/1 makes the risk worthwhile .

1 point ew 5 places 50/1 generally .

3:30

Bottom weight Perfect Summer has form on soft is fit from some very decent runs on the flat and has been a consistent hurdler. He might be difficult to knock out of the 5 places on offer here with paddy and others. 33/1 seems big

1 Point EW 5 places Paddy/sky/betfair/fred

Cheltenham Friday

12:40

As De Pique has been given a decent shot here by the handicapper. He has bettter form than most of these last year in very good Irish handicaps and has  a top class rider on board which is vital in these races. Although he is 12 he is relatively lightly raced and 20/1 is very big.

1 Point win 20/1 Generally

3:00

Vicomte Du Seuil has been running well is small races in France this year. He has some very decent form in the past and looks to have been given a decent shot here of a very light weight.The trainer knows how to win these and 20./1 looks too big.

1 Point win 20/1 365/hill/betf/paddy

 

Melbourne Cup

Melbourne Cup 4:00 am

I couldn’t have a more confident pick here. Hartnell looks a huge price at 28/1. He was a very good 3rd in this last year when well clear of the rest of the field. He is 3k better off with the winner for a 4 length beating and the runner up isn’t here. He has had a lower key season this year than last and today is surly the day for him to be at his peak. There are negatives for him, being top weight but he is always carrying this weight anyway. This year’s race is not as strong as last years as far as I can see. Of the Irish challengers I fancy Max Dynamite bit he is too short for this race. Wicklow brave will run a lot better than least here but the huge price with 6 places is gone so I’m not sure what value he is now.  The 6 places on offer is a big concession for a consistent horse and I actually make Hartnell near evens to be in the 6. That makes the 5/1 on offer just far too big to ignore. His win chance isn’t as much value id have him more of a 16/1 or 18/1 shot but that is still plenty of margin. Time for an actual bet with the 25/1 and 6 places with paddy/betfair/sky

3 Points EW 25/1 6 places paddy/betfair/sky