Long Shot Saturday

3:35 Lincoln

I’m going with a couple of real big priced horses here that are fully fit. Chatez won the spring cup a while ago and should be ready for a big run here with some decent form this year. Ventura Knight will have his ideal ground and trip here and could well get involved at a big price as well.

1 Point EW Chatez & Ventura 40/1 6 places Paddy

2:05 Meydan

Van Beethoven’s form last year seemed to tail of after a good start, but I was happy enough with his last run behind Too Darn Hot. I think he will be suited by this step up in trip and the surface should be no issue.  My guess is the stable have this race picked out as his most likely win this year and he will be firing on all cylinders. He has had a prep run which we can ignore.

1 Point win 14/1

4:00 Mayden

Hunting Horn wouldn’t have much to find with a lot of these in what looks a weak enough renewal. He has had a couple of prep runs and the fact that he has been kept in training leads me to think they can do something with him this year.

1 Point EW 50/1 365/lads/coral

1:30 Meyden

Lost Treasure is worth a small bet here. He is one of the most frustrating horses in training. That said I want to be there the one day he puts it all together at a huge price. His Abbay run shows what’s possible.

1 Point EW 50/1 4 places hills, 3 places elsewhere

Grand National 100/1 Shot

Grand National

I’ve had Valseur Lido in mind for this race all year, since re watching last year’s race and realizing how well he ran. He travelled as well as anything to the 2nd last but didn’t stay on the heavy ground with a big weight. He hasn’t looked great this year but to my eye has been gradually improving each time. His best run was in the national trial behind Rathvinden. He then went to Cheltenham for the Brown Advisory, which is never going to be far enough. He travelled well without ever being in the race and was actually beginning to stay on when a big mistake 3 out finished any small chance he had.

He has dropped a huge 12lbs since his run in the national last year and I just can’t get it out of my head that on seeing that run last year he will surely be ready for a big run. The more I watch it the more I think you’d have to try and get him here of a good mark for a shot, given he isn’t really going to win anymore grade 1s.

Anyway he is 100/1 with 6 places with paddy power and 100/1 5 places ¼ place with bet365, and I’d be knocking them over at those prices. In my view if he avoids carnage on the first circuit we’ll be right in the firing line 3 out and that’s all you can ask of a 100/1 Shot.

3 Points EW NRNB 100/1 6 places paddy Power or 5 places Bet365 ¼ place.

Gold Cup Day

Gold Cup

Might Byte will be suited by the ground and last years run is the best form in this race, if we consider he should be a lot better on decent ground.  He has to come back to firm but no better trainer for that.

1 point win 14/1

2:50

First Approach appeals here at a huge price. He was staying on at the end in the Dublin Racing Festival and has loads of experience , which is required in this race.

1 Point ew 4 places 40/1

5:30

Acapella Bourgeois actually has the best hurdles form in this race from a couple of years ago. Im assuming he will go from the front and hopefully never see another horse which should suit this race. Im also going for an unexposed novice in Discordantly. That he is here at all from this stable as a maiden is a tip in it self and he looks value to improve here.

1 Point EW 5 places Acapella 25/1

1 Point EW 5 places Discordantly 33/1

2:10

Due Reward is interesting here at a huge price. He should be suited by the step up on trip and rang well in the big handicap at the Dublin racing festival. This looks a weaker race than usual and he could be the ideal unexposed type for it.

1 Point EW 6 places lads 40/1

4:50

Forest Bihan has top weight here but has won a 2mile chase of a higher mark and has run well here before. He strikes me as having potential to improve and this type of race should suit him. 40/1 seems big.

1 Point EW 40/1 5 places gen

Day 3

1:30 JLT

Mengli Khan looks the value here. He has soft ground festival form in last years Supreme, and only his last run is a big negative on basically firm ground. He really should improve for soft and in a tight race 16/1 looks decent

1 Point win 16/1

2:10

Wait for me owes me a decent run, and I think he was eye-catching last time out. He has been kept since then and is certainly of a workable mark. We’ll take a punt at 40/1

1 Point EW 40/1 6 places paddy/betfair

3:30

Sam Spinner just needs a better ride to get involved in the finish here. I think he still has plenty of class and stays well at the end of his races.40/1 with 4 places is certainly value.

1 Point EW 40/1 4 places vc/corla/betway/tote

4:50

I’m always going for a Mullins Outsider here and his comments re Allez Dance are just too interesting for a 66/1 shot. The man can train mares.

1 Point EW 66/1 4 place vc

5:30

ArkWrisht is one I’ve been following all year. He hasn’t gone well so far but this test today will be right up his street. Have a look at the Irish Grand National last year in Heavy Ground, he was right beside Bellshill jumping the last and got taken out. Waiting for the morning price hasn’t worked out as we’ve missed the 40/1

2 Points EW 5 place 33/1 GEN

4:10

Kings Odyssey looks a short price to get involved in the finished here. He was 3rd last year in 3 of these races on soft over course and distance. He is of a lower mark here and the rain is a huge help

2 Points EW 5places 25/1 vc/fred/tote

Antepost running to day

Ryanair Chase

The top of the market for this race is mad at the moment with most of them not showing up here for this race. Monalee and Politologue look the most likely favs on the day. I’ve had Coney Island in mind for this since his very good run at Leopardstown over Christmas and I just can’t get over his price at the moment. He is a very lightly raced horse with bags of potential and in my view this is his trip. He really ran well in the Savills chase when a poor jump at the last and perhaps a lack of staying power cost him what looked a likely place. He has had a lovely prep with only 2 runs this year both with promise and considering his novice form I think he is the forgotten horse in this market. He hasn’t been entered in the Gold Cup, so hopefully this is his target. The trainer’s horses always run well at the festival and I’m sure he will get there in top shape. If he does he will go of about 10/1 or lower. 33/1 NRNB is great price with no risk.
2 Points EW 33/1 NRNB 365 ¼ place 1/5th place SKY

Cheltenham Day 2

Previously Advised running today

Champion Bumper

Now is as good a time as any to back a 20/1 shot that will go of about 8/1 . Meticulous is gradually improving and was on the way to running down the fav for this race last time out. I think he will love the hill here and there is just no chance he goes off at anything like this price. If he does we can just keep backing it.

2 Points win NRBD20/1 paddy/vc

1:30 Ballymore

Going through the whole field there is very little that have any soft ground form. Castlebawn West looks like Mullins second choice here but I don’t think that is apparent anymore. He looks a strong stayer that will be suited by soft ground. His bumper win was on heavy. 40/1 is certainly value here

1 Point EW 40/1 ¼ 365

2:10 RSA

The Worlds End was impressive here earlier this year with some superb jumping. He has some very decent soft ground form and if we can forgive him his last run he could get involved here. I’m hoping he goes of in front and gets into a rhythm.

1 Point win 25/1 Generally

2:50 Coral Cup

Tully East had a funny looking season for a horse that needs at least 2 ½ miles. He has loads of soft ground form and to my eye looks like this race has been the plan off a workable mark. He caught the eye for me last time out in a good race on fast ground and he just has to improve for this trip and ground.

2 Points EW 20/1 7 places Paddy 22/1 6 place lads/betfair

I’m also going for a win bet on my original choice here Scarpeta. He could be the class horse in the race but has a lot of weight to carry. 22/1 is still value

1 Point win 20/1

4:10

Cross Country

Kingswell Theatre looks a bit of value here with a few good runs over a year ago. He has a decent record fresh, and has run well on soft ground. 50/1 looks very big.

1 Point EW 50/1 4place betvictor 3 places elsewhere

4:50

King Dargent has some interesting looking soft ground flat maiden form. His 4yo hurdle form looks fine but I think he could seriously improve for a sterner test here. He is of bottom weight for a top-class operation.  

2 Points EW 28/1 5 places sky/365/fred

Cheltenham Day 1

Previously advised running tomorrow

Arkle

Hardline is one I had in mind for JLT but it appears this is his most likely race, and considering his form with Us and Them (who I also really rate here); he could well have some of the best 2 mile form ,when slamming him by 10 lengths. His run last time can be ignored as he was being minded on the ground and when the Jockey realized he had loads of horse left he made a huge amount of ground to be 3rd. 25/1 is looking massive on collateral form.

2 Points win 25/1 nrnb 365/sky

Mares Hurdle

We’re going to take advantage of this market before everything changes shortly. I think Benie Des Dieux is over-rated on last year’s win, given Apples Jade wasn’t in form and my 66/1 selection nearly beat her. She looks to me to need a softer surface and may well get outpaced on good ground. My feeling is Limini’s form the year before is much stronger and she has been running well this year. She wasn’t far behind Supasunday in the Hattons Grace and then ran well behind Percy last time out . She also has a number of good runs on the flat this year. If Laurina doesn’t go here I think she could well be in a 2 horses race, and the other one hasn’t seen the racecourse yet. Well play it safe and have a saver on Laurina just in case.

It’s not out of the question that Limini goes of Fav here at something like 7/4 (as its possible none of the ones above her in the betting are here at all) but she really can’t go off much bigger than 8/1 no matter who turns up.

2 Points win 8/1 365 NRNB Limini

½ Point win 4/1 Laurina hills/betfair Ante-post

Supreme
It’s not often I pick in these novice races at the festival but Itchy Feet’s form really does stand out for a 25/1 Shot. He just failed to give Elixir De Nuts 5lbs over this course and distance and was unbeaten prior to that. He has had a nice break and the trainer is certainly in form. That form is actually as good as anything in the race. He just can’t go off 25/1.
1 Point win 25/1 Generally

 

NEW TIPS

4:10 Mares
As per Podcast Slowmotion interests me here at a huge price. Her hurdles form is actually very consistent and I thought she looked decent behind Laurina last time out. In the main there isn’t much between all the rest behind the front 2 for me and 66/1 is value. Is softer ground she will be staying on at the end.
1 Point EW 66/1 ¼ 365 1/5th Generally

4:40 Close Brothers

Movewiththetimes has been on my mind for this since I saw the entries and he has only got bigger in price . He fell in 3rd at the last in the Paddy Power, and his best run ever was a second in the betfair hurdle on soft ground. Obviously, he will need to improve his jumping but he is in no better place to do just that. 16/1 is bigger than I expected.

2 Points win 16/1 lads/betfair/888

1:30 Supreme

I have to add another bet here. Aramon is just too big a price here. He has Grade 1 form in Ireland that could well be the best on office and there is far to much in price between him and Klassical Dream and Vision DHonour.  

1 Point win 14/1 Generally

2:50 Ultima

Catamaran De Seuil has taken me all morning to find in this. I’ve managed to rule out most of the field in what looks a below average renewal. He likes soft ground looks like a stayer and has a fair bit of pace as well judging by a good win earlier this year that has worked out. He has a decent 5lbs claimer on and the trainer just doesn’t send no hopers. 80/1 has to be a bit of value.

1 Point EW 80/1 ¼ 5 places 365 .

Supreme
It’s not often I pick in these novice races at the festival but Itchy Feet’s form really does stand out for a 25/1 Shot. He just failed to give Elixir De Nuts 5lbs over this course and distance and was unbeaten prior to that. He has had a nice break and the trainer is certainly in form. That form is actually as good as anything in the race. He just can’t go off 25/1.
1 Point win 25/1 Generally