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LongshotValue

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LongshotValue

Author Archives: longshotvalue

15:20 Catterick

02 Saturday Jun 2012

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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Mr David has some very in and out form since his very good looking 4th in the Bunbury Cup last year of a 7lbs higher mark. I’m going to take a small risk that he’ll improve again this year after his poor first run. He is a nice price here at 20/1 with Bet365 .

1 Point win 20/1 Bet365

14:55 Musselburgh Scottish Sprint Cup

02 Saturday Jun 2012

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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Burning Thread has some of the strangest looking form lines your likely to see. He has basically only either won of finished last in almost all his races. His last 2 wins came on the back of a series of poor runs, including last year when he won this race of a mark 3lbs higher than he is in here today. This has surly been the plan and it is somewhat surprising that he is available at 32 on Betfair at the moment.

1 Point win 32 Betfair

15:15 Epsom Downs DASH

01 Friday Jun 2012

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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An Early one for tomorrow at a good price at the moment is Fitz Flyer with Fallon up for Dandy Nichols. I think he ran an eye-catching race on his seasonal debut with a somewhat weak ride there. He hasn’t been as good since but his second over 5f last year behind Tiddlywinks in a conditions event reads well considering his mark tomorrow. 33/1 looks great value

 

1 pt EW 33/1 Coral or Betfair

19:05 Beverley Addictive Dream

29 Tuesday May 2012

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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Addictive Dream is a fair bit ahead of these on ratings and in my view there is a bit of an overreaction to his last run at Chester. He got left at the start and ran into trouble a number of times after. He was behind Shoshoni Wind in that race but here with the better ground to the selections advantage there is now way they should be as close in price as they are at the moment. Addictive Dream is 2/1 and Shoshoni is 3/1. There is 15lbs between then on ratings and Addictive Dream doesn’t need to be at his best to win this. He is an odds on shot in my view.

3 Points win 2/1 Bet365

Weekend Report

28 Monday May 2012

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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It was a good weekend in general with 2 winners Power and Markab both at 5/1 (both 2 point Selections). We had some close calls as well, Bathwick Bear today got no room at all in the final furlong and flew at the finish for second. Corporal Maddox was a good 3rd at a decent price Friday and Able Master just failed to get placed at a big price on Saturday as well. The total was +10 Points for the weekend and id have to be happy with that. I will update the Pricewise Challange later

19:40 Windsor Markab

28 Monday May 2012

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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This race looks very close but really there is nothing between Markab and Genki and it looks to me that the conditions here will suit Markab more, given that Genki looks better on Softer Ground. 5/1 about Markab here looks great value here and i cant have him as the outsider of the 4 principles here.

2 Points win 5/1 Betfred & Totesport

19:10 Windsor Bathwick Bear

27 Sunday May 2012

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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Bathwick Bear looks well overpriced on betfair at 14.5 for this competitive sprint. He was an excellent 3rd in a better race at York on Saturday and if he can cope with the quick turnaround he is of a mark he can win of. He looks best on Good/Firm ground over 6 furlongs judging by a good second in a conditions event last year at Yarmouth last year, and looks to be drawn ok in 3. He is as low as 6/1 with the bookies. His hadn’t got to run on ground with a bit of firm in it since that 6 Furlong event behind Royal Rock, and judging by his run at the weekend that is what he needs.

 

1 Point win 14.5 betfair

 

15:30 Haydock

26 Saturday May 2012

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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Barney McGrew is one of my favourite sprinters, and im going to have a saver bet on him here in addition to the bet on Able Master. He is down to a workable mark and should come on for his season debut where although he was down the field he looked to me to be travelling well and simply didn’t get any room at all. Any coming back to form at all will give him a great chance here at a big looking 10/1

1pt win 10/1 Betfred & Betfair

16:40 Haydock Al Muheer

25 Friday May 2012

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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Al Muheer bolted up for us last weekend, and had the look of a horse well on his way back to form. In this race of a mark of 90 he still has plenty of scope given his old marks. He looks a better price than I expected with an unexposed horse in the field being favourite. 6/1 looks very good value and I’ll have to have a bet.

 

2 Points win 6/1 Various

15:15 Curragh Irish 2,000 Guineas

25 Friday May 2012

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

≈ Leave a comment

I really fancy Power to come back to form after his poor run in the English 2000. The softer ground there and the fact that it was his first run on the year with the stable having a very strong first string, might indicate that this race was more of a realistic target and hell be ready to go. I think hell be supported tomorrow and the current 9/2 could look value by off time tomorrow. I will be having a saver bet on his stable mate Daddy Long Legs because apart from his 2 runs in America he looks a very good horse who can grind out a result in a decent race this year. He has already shown a very decent level of form winning in Mayden and a similar run here will put him right in the picture.

 

2 Points win Power 9/2 Boyles Coral and others

1 Point win Daddy Long Legs 16/1 Betfred Skybet

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