• 100/1 Real Longshots
  • 2015 Bets +320 Points +198 BSP
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  • 2013 Bets + 170 Points ADV + 122 BSP
  • Betting History Overall Total 840 Point Profit
  • 2015 Winners
  • Cheltenham Festival Huge Priced winner’s since 2010
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  • 2023 Results 707.5 Points Profit 121 % ROI
  • 2022 Results 284 Point Profit 45.6% ROI
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  • 2020 Results 193 Points Profit 37.9% ROI
  • 2019 50 Point loss ROI 13% loss
  • 2018 Results 18.5Points Profit 3.44% Roi
  • 2024 So Far 153.4 Profit on 628.75 invested ROI 26%
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LongshotValue

~ Finding Value

LongshotValue

Author Archives: longshotvalue

15:30 Haydock Able Master

25 Friday May 2012

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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Able Master is a horse I’ve been following for awhile to no avail, but I get the feeling that he is about to repay faith within the next few runs. He has been punted on each run this year without success, but he did catch the eye first time out and missed the break last time. 6 Furlongs on Good-Firm ground should be right up his alley and if he can break ok tomorrow he is in with a great chance of this mark. He has won of 16lbs higher and is still only a 6yo. 16/1 with Bet365 is well worth taking and with 17 runners we’ll go each way for a change.

 

2pts EW 16/1 Bet365

15:10 Goodwood Corporal Maddox

25 Friday May 2012

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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15:10 Goodwood

Corporal Maddox looks to have as good a chance as anything in this race of his mark of 82. He had a good first run this year and although he was poor next time on soft ground he could  easily bounce back here at a big looking 12/1. It is a while since he has done anything but be on the downgrade, but the slide will stop at some stage and considering he looked better already this year hes worth a bet.

1pt win 12/1 Betvictor Stanjames

15:05 Navan Calm Bay

20 Sunday May 2012

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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Calm Bay is one I’ve selected a few times in the past and although he has been poor enough in his 2 runs this year he looks down to a very reasonable mark here. He has the aid of an additional 5 lbs claimer here and a good draw. His current mark here of 80 is the lowest he has been for a long time and is possibly about where he needs to be to get involved. 20/1 with Coral is a standout price and worth a small EW bet

½ Point EW 20/1 Corals

15:20 Stratford You’re The Top

20 Sunday May 2012

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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You’re The Top is back from a very long break here, after a fall at Cheltenham 18 months ago. He was a very decent novice who looks to have been given a half decent change here by the handicapper with a mark of 133. Although the stable has another better fancied runner in Owen Glendower there is nothing to stop this one getting involved if he is fit to go on his first run for such a long time. 25/1 EW with Paddy Power with the 4 places on offer here looks a decent bit of value just in case he is ready.

½ Point EW 25/1 Paddy Power

15:40 Ripon Vainglory

20 Sunday May 2012

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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Vainglory is a consistent horse who simply isn’t the 25/1 shot that he is currently on Betfair for this race. He had a very decent seasonal debut in a much better race than this and if his reasonably inexperienced jockey can get the best out of him hell have a small chance here at a huge price. The jockey has a good record for the trainer with 2 wins and 2 places from 8 rides and the 7lbs will be valuable.

 ½  Point win 26 Betfair ½ Point place 5.8

Saturday Report

20 Sunday May 2012

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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Al Muheer came good again for us at 11/2 and save the day. He really won with loads in hand and most probably isnt finished yet. Both Able Master and Barney McGrew were most certainly unlucky in running, and im almost certain that thell both repay faith shortly. Doc Hay ran a good race for 3rd. A profit of only 1 point today but happy enough because there was a big points outlay today.

 

Here is a link to my existing tread on Letsbet.ie of folowing Al Muheer for the last year

http://www.letsbet.ie/forum/showthread.php?11323-Following-Al-Muheer

 

 

20:20 Doncaster Able Master

19 Saturday May 2012

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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Able Master is one again I have tipped on a few occasions, and it’s been clear that he could have done with a respite from the handicapper. He has that now and looked to be getting back to form first time out this season at Redcar when catching the eye finishing well. He was poor the next time on softer ground but didn’t get the run of the race. He has plenty of good runs of much higher marks and off only 79 today he can get involved here today at a big looking 14/1 in a few places.

1 Point win 14/1 Boyles Paddy Power

14:30 Newbury The Confessor

19 Saturday May 2012

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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The Confessor has been backed to win almost every race he has run over the last 18 months. I’ve had a look at the field for this and I struggling to come up with an answer to his consistency. He has run well twice already this year but looks to be still improving. I think the step back to 6 Furlongs will only help his front running style and he could be difficult to peg back here. 6/1 looks a bit of value and he is almost sure to go off shorter

2 Points win 6/1 Bet365 & others

15:30 Al Muheer

19 Saturday May 2012

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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Al Muheer has been followed by me for a while now and it finally came to fruition at a big price 2 weeks ago. He ran well again from a poor draw at Chester and is still very well handicapped on his best form. He looked to have a nice bit in hand in his win and although this is a decent race in comparison I feel he is well capable of winning this. His run style does need a bit of luck but 11/2 looks worth a bet to continue his progression back to hopefully a big handicap win later this year.

 

2 Points win 11/2 Bet365

16:05 Thirsk Doc Hay

18 Friday May 2012

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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Doc Hay looks the type that can get involved in some serious races this year. He steadily improved last year to end the year 3rd in a high class Listed race behind Sirius Prospect & Mayson . He should improve this year at 5 and given that he has a great run behind Magical Macey this year already of this mark, 14/1 looks an attractive price 3lbs better off with that horse.

 

1pt win 14/1 Paddy Power

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