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LongshotValue

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Author Archives: longshotvalue

18:20 Killarney Laurels Bar (c & G) Maiden Hurdle

14 Monday May 2012

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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Going to go with 2 from the same stable who both have bags of potential here. Handsupfordetroit was an eye-catching 4th last time out after getting more or less left at the start. The form has worked out well with the 2nd winning since and the 5th 3rd here yesterday. From the same stable Tepalo has solid form in French bumpers and Ruby Walsh booked. This looks a weak enough maiden without any real probable stars and both of these look overpriced at 22 & 20 on Betfair .

½ Point Win Handsupfordetroit 22 Betfair

½ Point win Tepalo 20 Betfair

19:50 Killarney Mcsweeney Arms Hotel Handicap Chase

14 Monday May 2012

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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Sebadee is one I’ve followed a few times. He gets into this handicap chase with a  very low weight along with everything else in the race because of Tranquil Sea’s participation. He generally loves good ground and in my view is well capable of this mark judging by his last 2 runs over fences in beating Hamsphire Express and 2nd to Loosen my Load. His price on Betfair of 26 win and 6 place is simply too big, and although he was very poor in his comeback hurdle race last time out after a break, if that has got him right he can have a shot here, with the notable booking of Paul Townend.

½ Point win ½ Point Place Betfair 26/6

Saturday Report

13 Sunday May 2012

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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Some very decent runs yesterday, my main bet Tony Star Left it too late but grabbed second after being well supported into 8/1 from 16/1. Both runners at huge price in the Victoria Cup ran well, and Bottman fell at the last when still in contention but looking unlikely to win it has to be said. Well get one of these huge prices in at some stage..

French 2000 Longchamp 3:10

13 Sunday May 2012

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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BEAUVOIR looks to be the value as far as I can see in this classic today. He was a talking horse last year and was expect to win on debut this year but despite getting beat he still gave the impression that there was more to come. There seems to be only a few real contenders here and his price of 14/1 with Ladbrokes at the moment looks great value. I’m not totally convinced that the Favourite has really beaten anything of substance last year and looks poor value.

1 pt win 14/1 Ladbrokes

15:25 Killarney Ladbrokes.com Handicap Hurdle

13 Sunday May 2012

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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Deutschland has in recent times generally being running on the flat. He was poor enough in the Galway Hurdle, which has led to a decent drop in weights and although he hadn’t been running to form on the flat lately he is back here after a break which will have hopefully revitalised him. His record fresh is very good having never been outside the first 3, and the last time he ran in a hurdle race after a break was in a Grade 2 Hurdle at Fairyhouse where he well outran his mark of 133. He is in here today with a mark of 128 and has Ruby in the saddle. The current price on Betfair of 18.5 couldnt possibly be available closer to the race and should be taken now.

1pt win 18.5 Betfair

14:00 Haydock Pertemps Network Long Distance Handicap Hurdle

11 Friday May 2012

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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Im going to go with a couple of longshots in this race, that will undoubtedly turn out to be a total slog. Bottman was a promising novice hurdler and looked to be going the right way over over fences as well this year. He was poor on his last run at Cheltenham, but previous to that had been looking like a decent prospect. He has a good Novice Hurdle win on Soft ground and staying shouldn’t be a problem , he looks worth  a min bet at the current odds on Betfair of 50. Qulinton is a bit of a shot in the dark here, he is generally better t this time of the year on better ground, but his one good run this season was his only other start over hurdles in a similar race at Cheltenham. If he can act on the ground at all he is in here with a light weight and might be worth a bet at 48 on Betfair.

 

½ Point win Bottman 50 Betfair

½ Point win Qulinton 48 Betfair

15:40 Haydock, Swinton Hurdle

11 Friday May 2012

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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Tony Star looks an ideal type for this race, he has been knocking on the door in decent races this season without winning. He had a break mid season and came back to a decent performance last time in a good race at Haydock where he finished 5th. This Swinton doesn’t really look to have a lot of strength & depth and Im hopeful the selection will use his stamina on this ground, when most of these are faltering. He looks an unexposed type that can improve here and good value at 16/1

 

1 Point win 16/1 Various

15:25 Ascot, Victoria Cup Handicap (Min Bets Huge Prices)

11 Friday May 2012

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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Imperial Guest  is a bit of a course specialist, has ran well here on a number of occasions and has won first time out over c&d last year. He is back down a few pounds in the handicap and has 3lbs claimer on that he has a good record with. He is unsure on this ground but most flat horses are and I think the current 48 on Betfair is well worth a min bet for value.

½ Point win 48 Betfair

 

Pravda Street is another that has very good course form, in that he was 4th in the International last year over c&d of only 2lbs higher. He has some patches of form on soft ground and didnt get the best of runs on his seasonal reappearance this year. He could easily get involved at a huge 70 on Betfair and that looks worth a min bet also.

½ Point win 70 Betfair

13:35 Chester, Fat Gary Sports Earl Grosvenor Handicap

10 Thursday May 2012

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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Light From Mars has been a relatively frustrating horse to follow for the last while, but I’m going to give him a small chance here at a decent price. He ran a decent race on his seasonal reappearance when short of room, but ran no sort of race at all when fancied for the Lincoln. He doesn’t have much form on soft but hasn’t really run on it much and of his lowest mark for a long time, a return to form mightn’t be out of the question. I got the feeling when the owner was interviewed before the Lincoln that he was working well and expected to perform there, but hopefully he can here instead. He’s worth a min bet for value at 21 on Betfair

 

½ point win Betfair 21

13:35 Chester, M&s Money Handicap

10 Thursday May 2012

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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Oceanway looks a bit big at 14/1 in this race. She has on a few occasions come back from a poor run or two to bounce back to form. Her last race at Epson can be ignored as the ground was very heavy, and although it is soft again today it shouldn’t be as bad as that run. She does have some form on soft ground and in fact won a race over the course last year on soft ground. She had a decent first outing in Dundalk this year and a reproduction of that here would give her a squeak.

 

1pt win 14/1 Various

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