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LongshotValue

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Author Archives: longshotvalue

14:30 Aintree Gottany O’s

11 Wednesday Apr 2012

Posted by longshotvalue in Festival Selections

≈ Leave a comment

Gottany O’s is the sort of horse that seems to do well at the Aintree Festival. He looked very good on his second last run soundly beating Lyvius. He was poor next time out, but it did seem too poor to be true and Im hoping that the Tongue Tie might just do the trick to see him finish out the race better. He was much the same standard on the flat as most of the favs and 25/1 warrants a small bet. Not having run at Cheltenham can be a big advantage.

.5pt Win 25/1 Various

17:25 Aintree Star of Angels

11 Wednesday Apr 2012

Posted by longshotvalue in Festival Selections

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Star Of Angels looks to have the right kind of profile for this race. He’s had less racing than most of the field this year, and didn’t have a hard race at Cheltenham as he was brought down at the 3rd. He has plenty of decent form in the past including a good 4th in the Coral Cup a few years ago. There is a good possibility he was readied for a good end of season campaign by pipe. Once there are no ill effects from his fall at Cheltenham the current 22/1 with Coral is a standout price, given that he is generally 16/1 which looks more likely to be around the correct odds.

1pt win 22/1 Coral

16:50 Aintree Menorah

11 Wednesday Apr 2012

Posted by longshotvalue in Festival Selections, Saturday Selections

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Menorah has in my view about the same level of form as Al Ferof, and his price of 11/2 with Stan James looks exceptional value compared to the 11/10 or evens about the Fav. He did finish ahead in the Arkle when both made mistakes, but I think he is still capable of a big run and the step up in trip should suit along with the easier track.

2 Points win 11/2 Stan James

15:05 Aintree, Betfred Bowl Chase What A Friend

11 Wednesday Apr 2012

Posted by longshotvalue in Festival Selections

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What A Friend ran a very good race at Newbury behind Long Run when like Burton Port he was closing at the end. He fell at the 2nd in the Gold Cup and with that race probably having taken a huge amount out of his principle adversaries here he looks a good prospect at a decent price. He has won this race before and in my view should be 3rd Fav here behind Riverside Theatre and Burton Port. The fact that they both had exceptionally hard races at Cheltenham should bring him closer to them. I got a bit of 11/1 this afternoon but the 9/1 available in a few places still looks a bit of value. Ive just noticed a bit of 10/1 available in Ladbrokes

1pt Win 9/1 Tote/Betfred/Coral 10/1 Ladbrokes

Irish Grand National Report

11 Wednesday Apr 2012

Posted by longshotvalue in Festival Selections

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Deal Done ran a great race to just get run out of the 5 places at 40/1, the other 2 selections never figured at all really. Pricewise’s selection just failed and traded at 1/7 going down to the last so he was very unlucky there. Daldini ran a good race to be 3rd at Huntington and might be one to watch soon enough of this mark. Overall a loss of 8 points on the day which is poor and brings the pricewise race closer at Pricewise -6 LongshotValue +13.6 both Advised. Overall stats https://longshotvalue.com/longshotvalue-v-pricewise/

16:15 Aintree, Oiseau de Nuit

11 Wednesday Apr 2012

Posted by longshotvalue in Festival Selections

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Oiseau de Nuit  has been very consistent really over the last 2-3 years. He was travelling really well last time out in the Grand Annual when he was brought down 3 out and it looked to me he was defiantly getting involved there. He has a few extra pounds in hard over the likes on Thanks for That who was 2nd and considering he was 2nd in this race last year off 2 lbs higher I really think he is in with a big chance here. The 12/1 available with Paddy Power and Bet365 looks exceptional value and worth a EW bet.

1 pt EW 12/1  PP/B365

Irish Grand National Some Target

09 Monday Apr 2012

Posted by longshotvalue in Festival Selections

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Some Target has been very consistent over the last year or two and did run a very good race in the Grand National Trial at Haydock, travelling well throughout but weakening near the end. I’m sure this would be his target and he is in here of a very workable weight with Paul Townend in the saddle. The rain yesterday and today will only help his chances He is a stayer really and looks to be almost nailed on to place in the first 5. 22/1 with 5 places on Bet365 looks worth taking.

1pt EW 22/1 Bet365 12345

16:40 Huntingdon Daldini

09 Monday Apr 2012

Posted by longshotvalue in Stardard

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Daldini, has been getting worse it seems lately, but really apart from his last run his new mark of only 99 would give him a small shout here. There is a 7lbs claimer on today and if carrying nothing (only 9-7) can help his jumping he might just stand a decent chance at a nice price. 16/1 in a few places looks worth a small bet.

1pt win 16/1 Boyles/PPower

Irish Grand National

09 Monday Apr 2012

Posted by longshotvalue in Festival Selections

≈ Leave a comment

Two previously advised tips running today

Shakervilz is 50/1 EW with Boyles 12345

Deal Done is 33/1 EW with PP 12345

15:10 Fairyhouse Bat Masterson

09 Monday Apr 2012

Posted by longshotvalue in Festival Selections

≈ Leave a comment

Bat Masterson has been running consistently well this year, and has plenty of experience for a 4yo. He ran on eye-catchingly in the Fred Winter at Cheltenham and looks to be helped by the step up in trip here. He has the benefit of a not inconsiderable 4yo allowance here, and given his experience he should be able to take advantage of it here. The 14/1 available in a few places looks to be about 3 points too big and well worth a bet.

1 Point win 14/1 Ladbrokes

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