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  • 2020 Results 193 Points Profit 37.9% ROI
  • 2019 50 Point loss ROI 13% loss
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  • 2024 So Far 153.4 Profit on 628.75 invested ROI 26%
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LongshotValue

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15:30 Haydock, 7 Apr 2012 2m 4f Betfair. For Better Odds Levy Board Handicap Chase

06 Friday Apr 2012

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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Temple Lord: This selection looks overpriced principally because his last 2 runs have been poor, but possibly they were over to far. His last run over this trip looked to be going very well until he fell when about to challenge 3 out at Ascot in a very decent handicap chase with 1 lbs higher than his mark today. It wouldn’t be much of a surprise if he improved here back to the right trip and ground. 16/1 looks a bit of value and worthy of a small bet.

1 Point win 16/1 various

14:55 Haydock, 7 Apr 2012 2m 4f Betfair. Don’t Settle For Less Handicap Hurdle

06 Friday Apr 2012

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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I’m going to go for 2 selections here that might just have a bit left in the tank as regards handicap mark. Presenting Ace was heavily gambled on last time out but although he didn’t seem to be trying too hard, the addition of blinkers here will surly help here, in what was possibly his target. The trainer is well capable of getting one ready for a race like this and 14/1 looks at least 3-4 points too big. I’m also going to look towards the bottom of the handicap for an unexposed looking Wise Move. He won one of the qualifiers for this in decent fashion but ran poorly next time out on possibly unsuitable soft ground and in here with bottom weight on good ground he could well improve enough to take  hand here at a big enough looking  12/1.

 

1 Point win Presenting Ace 14/1 Bet365

1 Point win Wise Move 12/1 Ladbrokes

15:15 Kempton (A.W.), 7 Apr 2012 2m Betfred Bonus King Queen’s Prize Handicap

06 Friday Apr 2012

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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Enroller: I think he looks underestimated in this race. He isn’t really patch on his old self but he wouldn’t need to be to have a chance here at a huge price. He has run one decent flat race since his long layoff and has been improving over hurdles lately.  He was a decent 3rd at Foss Las in September when the first 2 got away and he ran on well to finish 3rd.  The 2 miles trip here should suit and off a mark of 88 which is 6 lbs lower than that run he might just be able to grind a result. He is currently 50 win and 9.6 place on betfair and that looks value to me and worthy of a small bet.

.5 point win .5 Point Place

15:20 Doncaster, 1 Apr 2012 6f New William Hill iPhone App Handicap

01 Sunday Apr 2012

Posted by longshotvalue in Sunday Selections

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Johannes: There is a fair bit of indications that today could be this selections best chance of justifying plenty of support by me in the past to no avail. He has ran well on numerous occasions in the last year or two without winning, but does have a very good record fresh and is of his lowest mark for a very long time, despite the fact that he finished last year with 2 very good runs. My gut feeling is that hell be supported today and the 16/1 EW available with Boyles & Ladbrokes should be taken.

1 pt EW 16/1 Boyles & Ladbrokes

I’m going to go with two other small selections in the same race at big prices on Betfair as in my view they are both in with a chance on best form. Damika is down to a very workable mark and at a big price would have a chance here if ready at what looks a big 38 on Betfair. In addition No Hubris has run well fresh every time and although he generally runs over 7f he is too big a price for one that could still have some untapped potential of this mark.

Damika .5 pt win Betfair 38

No Hubris .5pt win Betfair 65 1pt Place Betfair 11.5

Saturday Report

01 Sunday Apr 2012

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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Saturday started of bad enough with both my initial selections running poorly, and Brae Hill winning at a very good price (I selected him last year nearly every time he ran and made a nice profit). Ranoma Chase came in a good 3rd at a big price . Kasbah Bliss ran a great race in the unfortunately re arranged Gold Cup, defying his years to finish a very close 5th. Await the Dawn went out like a light after leading from the start and there was obviously a serious problem with the horse, and he looks unlikely to ever fill that potential. Thankfully Monteresso ended the night spectacularly with a scintillating win at what seemed a big price for one that was 3rd in the same race last year.

In the Pricewise Challenge, he had all losses yesterday but was defiantly very unlucky with Captain Bertie, who should have won with loads in had but for an unlucky passage.

Thanks to Monteresso the challenge has started well, with the score standing at +23.6 to -5

Twitter Tips

31 Saturday Mar 2012

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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For twitter followers Monterosso wins at 20/1 🙂

17:25 Meydan (Dubai), 31 Mar 2012 1m 1f Dubai Duty Free

31 Saturday Mar 2012

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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Await The Dawn: I think this horse still has a lot of improvement in him, although he was disappointing in his last 2 runs last year, the stable had made the point they were looking for good ground. This race although strong enough doesn’t look to be the most difficult $10m race ever run, and Coolmore should have him ready to run here. 10/1 looks about 3 points too big and worth a small bet. Hopefully he will kock on from this and finally fulfil his potential.

 

1 Point win 10/1 Various

15:30 Kempton (A.W.), 31 Mar 2012 1m 3f williamhill.com Rosebery Handicap

31 Saturday Mar 2012

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

≈ 2 Comments

Ramona Chase: In what is a very open race I’m going to go with last years 4th at a very big price. He had a similar break last year before his good run, and although he was a few pounds higher he has the advantage of a 5lbs claimer this time. He possibly even ran better than his final placing suggested last year and has been very consistent since then with a very good place percentage. He is 55 win 6.6 place on Betfair and that look to big to have a small bet.

 

1 point win 1 Point place Betfair

14:45 Meydan (Dubai), 31 Mar 2012 2m Dubai Gold Cup

31 Saturday Mar 2012

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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Kasbah Bliss: Having a look at this race the selection looks to most overpriced in the race, even tough he is a 10yo at this stage he has been very consistent the last few years, and I’m not convinced that anything outside the top 2 here are any better. He has better form in the book than the likes of Mikhail Glinka & Barbican, who although have age on their side need to step up a good bit to win this, and they are less than half the selections price. With his customary late bust which was still in effect at the end of last year winning a well deserved Group 1, he has every chance of getting placed and maybe even better depending on the way the race goes.

 

1 pt EW 20/1 Sky bet


Sat 31/3

31 Saturday Mar 2012

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

≈ 1 Comment

LongshotValue v Pricewise

Price Wise LongshotValue
Captain Bertie 1pt 12/1 Snow Bay 1pt EW 16/1
Shamdarley 1pt 10/1 Light from Mars 1pt EW 16/1
Waffle 1pt 10/1 Kasbah Bliss 1pt EW 20/1
Fury 1pt 8/1 Ramona Chase 1pt EW 55/6.6
Reflect 1pt 16/1 Await The Dawn 1pt 10
Monteresso 1pt EW 20/1
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