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LongshotValue

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Long Shot Saturday

29 Saturday Sep 2018

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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1:50 Newmarket
Mohawk looks to have a decent change here. He has run well last twice on softer ground and the step up in trip and fast ground will surely be to his liking. The most likely winner here is certainly Arthur Kitt as the fav is all wrong in my view.
1 Point win 12/1 hills 10/1 generally
2:25 Newmarket
Gossamer Wings hasn’t and things go her way the last few runs and I think she will be suited by this trip and ground. She is a strong traveler and I fancy her to be there at the business end. 40/1 is massive
1 Point EW 40/1 betfair/paddy/hills
3:40 Newmarket
Sands Chorus just can’t be left run here at 100/1 after his superb run last year. He’ll surly run his best race this year here. Bravery is on a great mark after a light season and should be ready to run a big race. Raising Sand runs well is these big field races and won’t be far away is high numbers are favored.
1 Points EW 7 places Sands Chorus 100/1 pp/hills
1 Point EW 7 places Bravery 66/1 pp/hills
1 Point EW 7 Places Raising Sand 40/1 pp/hills

3:15 Haydock
Just Glamorous came to life around this time last year after some very poor runs and is probably worth a shot here at a huge price.
1 Point EW 5 places paddy/betfair

Long Shot Saturday

22 Saturday Sep 2018

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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2:20 Newbury
This looks a poor enough race with loads of horses that can’t be trusted. I’m always of the opinion that decent stayers, can run well at shorter trips and I think Desert Skyline could cause a surprise here. He has a couple of top quality runs this year and in this field I don’t think he is a 20/1 shot.
1 Point win 20/1 365/paddy/betfair
2:55 Newbury
The Irish Rover will be suited by this trip and the small field and the fact that he’s probably the best horse in this field. 6/1 is just too big.
2 Points win 6/1 365/lads
2:40 Ayr
Hayadh looked to love the Heavy ground when leading in the Lincoln before running out of steam and has since been dropping in mark. I think he will love this soft 6 furlongs and wouldn’t be at all surprised if he gets to the front and stays there (given he stays further). 25/1 looks value
1 Point win 25/1
3:50 Ayr
I’ve this narrowed down to 2 that I like. Growl handles these conditions better than most and he just can’t be far away. G-Force will love the ground and looks to have been setup for a big run here.
1 Point win 9/1 Growl
1 Point win 25/1 G-Force

3:55 Newmarket
I’ve been on the Clever Cookie bandwagon a couple of times this year, and in fairness he has run up to his mark of 105-6 a few times. Of 98 here I think he will be involved in the finish here. 20/1 is at least 6 points too big.

1 Point win 20/1 Generally

Longshot Sunday

16 Sunday Sep 2018

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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2:00 Curragh

Maarek looked to need the run last time when fading near the finish after getting no run. I’m sure he’ll be a lot better today, and is a of a nice mark. His run behind Blairmaine when trying to give him over a stone , reads well. You’d have to think today has been the plan for a while and 50/1 with 6 places looks value on ground with a  bit of cut today.

2 Points EW 6 places 50/1 Paddy/Sky 

2:35 Curragh

Broadway looks to me to be fairly short to at least finished 2nd here. She improved last time out and given a better run would have given Beautiful Morning a close call. I think she will shorten a fair bit and we could be on at the starting price if we go for the w/o market now.

2 Points win w/o fav 11/2 365/lads/coral

Longshot Saturday

15 Saturday Sep 2018

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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1:50 Doncaster

Duke of Firense has done me a favor or 2 in the past and I think he is down to a workable mark here. Things didn’t go his way in the last 2 runs but he showed a bit of the old spark the previous time and ran well here last year of a much higher mark. 33/1 with 6 places looks decent value.

1 Point EW 6 places sky 33/1 paddy 28/1 

3:35 Doncaster

I wont be swapping our bet on The Pentagon but ill have another small stab here at Zabriski at a huge price. He showed a bit of form in the dante and has been poor since but has been given a break before the Great Voltigeur and may well come on for that run. In addition Frankels are looking to be better stayers and I just cant let him go off at 200/1.

1 Point EW 200/1 Generally 

3:00 Doncaster

Van Beethoven really has run only 1 bad race this season, and looked to me to be very unlucky last time out when he got no run. I’m not entirly  sure there is much between him and Dark Vision. 9/1 in the w/o fav market looks value here

1 Point win 9/1 w/o fav Coral/365

Doncaster Ledger

14 Friday Sep 2018

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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‪Long term project bet.‬

‪Ledger Saturday‬

‪I’ve had The Pentagon on my mind for this for ages . 33/1 and generally 25/1 is just massive . He looks sure to get involved and might be the classiest horse here . ‬

‪2 points ew 33/1 lads 25/1 generally ‬

Thursday Longshot

13 Thursday Sep 2018

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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Doncaster 2:25

I thought Fleeting looked a better prospect last time out than Peach Tree and 14/1 looks value .

1 point win 14/1 generally

Long Shot Saturday

08 Saturday Sep 2018

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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4:15 Haydock

If Harry Angel doesn’t show up here almost anything can win. I think we have been too quick to write off Eqtidaar. Considering how well 3yo sprinters have gone this year, it seems a bit silly for the commonwealth cup winner to be available at 25/1 here. He has some nice form on soft in his first run this year and I think got going far to early last time out when left with too much to do. Ill go with win bets in the main and w/o market as the EW terms are poor here.

1 Point win 25/1 Generally 1 Point win w/o Harry 14/1

 

2:45 Ascot

Tupi is simply too big at 40/1 here. He has a few runs this year that would give him a squeak of this mark. If today is a going day he could well get involved at that huge price.

1 Point EW 40/1 5 places Various  

 

3:35 Haydock

Clever Cookie is too big here at 11/1 with all the non-runners. He has top class form on soft and this is a weaker race than he has been competing in . Of this mark he should be a fair bit shorter here.

2 Points win 11//1 Generally

Long Shot Saturday

01 Saturday Sep 2018

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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Sandown 1:50
Sprinters are often in and out depending on luck and other factors. Pettochside was in great form earlier this year including a superb 2nd in the Epson Dash. He has been poor enough since but we are easily getting the price for a gamble on him returning to form here with a good draw.
1 Point win 25/1 Generally
Sandown 2:25
Easy Nap of the day pick here in Master Carpenter. He was good here on his second last run and with some amount of give in the ground here today I think he is a short enough price for an improved run here today. On his day he wins this with a bit in hand. 12/1 is value. In addition I like a bet on Restorer at a big price as well. He won well on debut for this year and ran better than his placing suggests on his last run. 16/1 looks a nice bit of value
2 Points win Master Carpenter 12/1, 1 Point win Restorer 16/1
Chester 5:35
Gabriel’s King is simply far too big a price here at 14/1. Of this mark with a good 5lbs claimer on he has almost as good a chance as anything else.
1 Point win 14/1 365/betway/vc
Curragh 1:40
I think there is a very decent chance that Fleeting can bounce back here over this trip. She won 1st time out against a decent filly and I think we can rule out her next run over too short when she was possible feeling the effects of the yards problems at that stage. I think she might get involved ehre at a huge price
1 Point EW 25/1 Generally
Curragh 2:15
Vocal Queen, sticks out here as an unexposed sort that might just be on a nice mark here for her first run in a handicap. The trip should suit and the main reason for the interest is her first run has worked out well . If the blinkers do anything at all for her 40/1 might seem big.
1 Point EW 40/1 5 places 365/sky/paddy/betfair
Curragh 4:00
I’d didn’t seem likely that Kenya would be available at 33/1 of a mark of 98 this time last year, but I think there is value there for him to come back to form and that to look a big price later on today.
1 Point win 33/1 Hills 25/1 generally

Sunday Trixie

26 Sunday Aug 2018

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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Sunday Trixie

2:45 Deauville: Signs of blessing to get back to form 11/2
2:35 Curragh : Viadera’s form is s step ahead of these 9/2
3:40 Curragh : Verbal Dexterity Other horses in this field just dont win enough 7/4

1 Point win Trixie Costing 4 Points

York 3 figure price

24 Friday Aug 2018

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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Everything has its price .

3:30 York Declaration of War might be able to pick up some pieces here at a huge price .

1 point ew 150/1 4 places vc/sky

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