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LongshotValue

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LongshotValue

Author Archives: longshotvalue

Weekend Bets

26 Saturday May 2018

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

≈ 2 Comments

York 3:40

Goldream showed plenty of form last year to indicate that a mark of 103 is well within his grasp. I’m pretty sure he will get close here at a big price after a reasonable pipe opener this year. 20/1 is value

1 Point win 22/1 sky/coral/vc 30 betfair

Haydock 4:00

Washington DC is going to get his perfect race here. They will be breaking records here out of the gate and he looks very likely to pick up the pieces. I don’t think there is any point taking on the rocket ship Battaash so well go for a 10/1 win bet w/o the fav.

1 Point win w/o FAV 10/1 365/sky/coral

Curragh 1000 Guineas Sunday

Alpha Centuari’s form last year on good ground is exceptional and she looked one of the best fillies around. She did disappoint on 2 runs on soft ground since that but I think there is a decent chance she will get back to her best here on a fast surface. 33/1 is lot bigger than I expected

2 Points EW 33/1 Betfair/Paddy/VC/888

Haydock 3:25

Actress is one of my main horses to follow this year, I think she in underrated. Her 3rd splitting Sioux Nation, Us Navy Flag and Beckford is probably not much behind anything any other runner here has done. She will be suited by the decent ground and has improved on each of her runs this year. She is easily worth a shot at 40/1

2 Points EW 40/1 ¼ Place bet365 1/5th elsewhere.

Haydock 2:15
Vent De Force never got into the Chester Cup at all after a slow start, but to my eye he was travelling well all the way. This is a much weaker race over a better trip with a smaller field. I think he will show up a lot better today. 33/1 is value
1 Point EW 33/1 Generally

Weekend Bets

26 Saturday May 2018

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

≈ Leave a comment

York 3:40

Goldream showed plenty of form last year to indicate that a mark of 103 is well within his grasp. I’m pretty sure he will get close here at a big price after a reasonable pipe opener this year. 20/1 is value

1 Point win 22/1 sky/coral/vc 30 betfair

Haydock 4:00

Washington DC is going to get his perfect race here. They will be breaking records here out of the gate and he looks very likely to pick up the pieces. I don’t think there is any point taking on the rocket ship Battaash so well go for a 10/1 win bet w/o the fav.

1 Point win w/o FAV 10/1 365/sky/coral

Curragh 1000 Guineas Sunday

Alpha Centuari’s form last year on good ground is exceptional and she looked one of the best fillies around. She did disappoint on 2 runs on soft ground since that but I think there is a decent chance she will get back to her best here on a fast surface. 33/1 is lot bigger than I expected

2 Points EW 33/1 Betfair/Paddy/VC/888

Sandown Evening Meeting

24 Thursday May 2018

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

≈ Leave a comment

6:00

Golden Nectar was improving this year until he stepped up in trip and didn’t stay last time out. He is still an relatively unexposed horse and of a mark of 70 here is certainly of interest at 50/1 and 4 places.

1 Point EW 50/1 4 places lads/ betway/betfred

 

Grande Steeplechase De Paris

20 Sunday May 2018

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

≈ Leave a comment

Auteuil 3:15

I’ve had a look at the last 2 running’s of this and the winner of both of these So French won them pretty easily, and beat most of these running today. He has had a significant injury and is back here under a cloud. 3m6furlongs on Good-Soft ground in my mind is exactly what Djakadam wants. He stays forever but probably doesn’t really have a finishing kick over any trip. The way these races are run i don’t think he will need it, as his cruising speed may well be too much for most of these. I went through every horse with a chance to find some collateral form and eventually found in the the name of Alary. French chasers have always been behind the British and Irish  ones in my opinion.  There is some odd fences but nothing to silly, and Djakadam is a superb jumper in the main. Heart ruling head but so be it.

2 Points win 8/1 paddy/betfair/lads and others

Long Shot Saturay

19 Saturday May 2018

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

≈ Leave a comment

3:40 Newbury.

War Decree although at times looking like a bit of a stayer, in my mind will be far more suited to this fast 1 mile of fast ground that anything he has raced on since he was a 2yo. He has some reasonable form but is relatively unexposed over this trip and I think 66/1 is decent value. The market seems all wrong to me and I’d love to see Lancaster Bomber win but I’d have been hoping for a bigger price.

1 Point EW 66/1 4 Places paddy VC

York LongShot

16 Wednesday May 2018

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

≈ Leave a comment

2:55

Danzeno is fit from running in Meyden and showed up well last time out when running to a mark better than his 102 here. Anytime he has come down to around this mark he has been competitive in handicaps and i cant see anything that changes that now. To me he looks to have a class advantage here. He actually seems like the most likely winner and is value at 12/1 .

2 Points win 12/1 Generally

5:35

Ghayyar looks a decent middle distance prospect when he won his maiden in Newmarket at 2. He has been a disappointment since really, but has changed stables to a trainer who goes well here, and did catch the eye a bit first time out this year on unsuitable soft ground. This ground and trip could well bring a bit of improvement and claw back some untapped potential. He’s easily worth the risk at 66/1

1 Point EW 66/1 Generally

Long Shot Saturday

12 Saturday May 2018

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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Ascot 4:00

Masham Star looks a good start in trying to find value here. He is on a very good mark and if we ignore his last run he is well capable of getting involved here at a big price. He has plenty of very good handicap form of marks in or around 100 to make his mark of 88 today very interesting. 33/1 is value. In order to go for one on each side in having a stab at Mr Scaramanga at a huge price drawn 1. He has been in good form this year on the all-weather easily running to his mark here. I wouldn’t be too surprised if he reproduced some decent course form here.

2 Points EW 33/1 6 places Masham Star Paddy/sky/lads/coral

1 Point EW 50/1 6 places Mr Scaramanga  Paddy/lads/coral

 

Haydock 2:00

Viconte Du Noyer just can’t be ignored here of a very low hurdles mark. Especially since he came back to form a bit last time at punchestown. He is totally unexposed over hurdles at this trip and he certainly stays this far over fences. 22/1 is easily worth the risk here.

2 Points  win 22/1 365/sky/betway/vc

Long Shot Saturday

12 Saturday May 2018

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

≈ Leave a comment

Ascot 4:00

Masham Star looks a good start in trying to find value here. He is on a very good mark and if we ignore his last run he is well capable of getting involved here at a big price. He has plenty of very good handicap form of marks in or around 100 to make his mark of 88 today very interesting. 33/1 is value. In order to go for one on each side in having a stab at Mr Scaramanga at a huge price drawn 1. He has been in good form this year on the all-weather easily running to his mark here. I wouldn’t be too surprised if he reproduced some decent course form here.

2 Points EW 33/1 6 places Masham Star Paddy/sky/lads/coral

1 Point EW 50/1 6 places Mr Scaramanga  Paddy/lads/coral

Chester Vase Longshot

11 Friday May 2018

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

≈ Leave a comment

Chester Vase 3:35

Everything has its price and even though he is drawn wide and had a poor run first time out this season, Vent De Force has plenty of form over the last few years which will give him a shout here of a mark of 100 and a price of 66/1. The Positives outweigh the negatives at that price. There wouldn’t be a lot between him and the likes of Fun Mac who is only 12/1.

1 Point EW 66/1 5 places VC/Paddy

1000 Guineas

06 Sunday May 2018

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

≈ Leave a comment

3:35 Newmarket
IF we ignore Madeline’s run in the Breeders Cup where she met all kinds of trouble in running, I think she could be in with a small squeak here. Her 3rd behind Clemmie, and Different League could be some of the best form on offer here, and in that I think she may be better over this trip. 80/1 with 4 places Is huge.
2 Points EW 80/1 4 places Paddy/lads/fred/tote

2:55 Newmarket
It looks a bit early to write off Tis Marvellous. He ran well first time out in Mayden and if we forgive him his second run there he stands a chance here of 100. 33/1 is too big for a horse with plenty of potential still.
1 Point EW 33/1 Generally

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