• 100/1 Real Longshots
  • 2015 Bets +320 Points +198 BSP
  • 2014 Bets + 1 pts
  • 2013 Bets + 170 Points ADV + 122 BSP
  • Betting History Overall Total 840 Point Profit
  • 2015 Winners
  • Cheltenham Festival Huge Priced winner’s since 2010
  • 2016 Bets +40.5 Advised
  • Antepost Selections
  • 2023 Results 707.5 Points Profit 121 % ROI
  • 2022 Results 284 Point Profit 45.6% ROI
  • 2021 Results 250 Point Profit 30.8 % ROI
  • 2020 Results 193 Points Profit 37.9% ROI
  • 2019 50 Point loss ROI 13% loss
  • 2018 Results 18.5Points Profit 3.44% Roi
  • 2024 So Far 153.4 Profit on 628.75 invested ROI 26%
  • Cheltenham last 6 years Results

LongshotValue

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Author Archives: longshotvalue

Last Chance Saloon Champions Weekend

14 Saturday Sep 2019

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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1:50 Doncaster

Konchek has looked like he will be suited by a step back in trip and he improved last time. 3y’o have been winning everything and he is the only on in the field. I’ve actually gone for 30/1 5 places with 365, in the extra place specials market.

1 Point EW 30/1 5 places 365.

3:00 Doncaster

Royal Dornoch is 3lbs better off with Threat for his run at Goodwood, when he was on the wrong side but really caught the eye. If he improves on that he’ll get close to treat.

1 Point win 25/1 generally

I’m going to add an additional 1 point win at 14/1 w/o fav here in a few places.

 

3:35 Doncaster

Western Australia, is a horse I expected to get value with this year at some stage, and this looks to be that time. We’ll our fate early if he goes too fast in front but if not he can get involved in the finish here at a huge price. His 2 yo form is very good.

2 Points EW 66/1 Gen

3:40 Leopardstown

Norway is the best horse in this race, we’ve missed the 10/1 but 8/1 is still value. He surly won’t go haring off in front here.

2 Points win 8/1 365

4:15 Leopardstown

Anthony Van Dyke is clearly the 2nd best horse in this race if we can ignore his last poor run. He has a turn of foot at the end of his races and I think this race will suit him. We’ll go with a win and a w/o bet here.

1 Point win 12/1 Gen 2 Points w/o Magical 15/2 365/lads

1:50 Donc
 
After getting all my bets on I’ve just realized that Muthmir has huge change here. Eye catching run at Ascot a while ago.
 
1 Point win 16/1
5:25 Leop
 
This race could setup perfectly for Just Wonderful. It should be a mad pace up front and if she gets back to form she will be closing fast.
 
1 Point win 25/1

Kerry National

10 Tuesday Sep 2019

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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Listowel 4:15
 
I was going to give this race a long look, but I’ve landed straight on the value here in Barra at a big price. She was backed in Galway but everything went wrong from the start. I think she is better on soft.
 
2 Points EW 33/1 365

Group 1 Sunday

08 Sunday Sep 2019

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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Longchamp 2:50
 
As much as I think Circus just wins and is probably value at 9/2 Olmedo is even more overpriced here at 20 on Betfair. There is very little between him and the top of the market here on form.
 
1 Point win 20 Betfair Exch

Long Shot Lucky 15

07 Saturday Sep 2019

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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Gone for a big price EW Lucky15 Today
 
2:45 Ascot Kimifive 20/1
3:35 Haydock Clever Cookie 33/1
4:10 Haydock So Perfect 25/1
2:20 Navan Mi Esperanza 40/1
 
5 Places cant be got on all but So Perfect.
 
Total Advised Spend 6 Points

Long Shot Saturday

31 Saturday Aug 2019

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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Down Royal 5:45

Utah is a horse I noticed running better here 2 runs ago than his finish indicated. He is of a nice mark with a step up in trip and Colin Keane booked. 40/1 with 4 places is well worth a bet

1 Point EW 40/1 4 places lads/hills

Sandown 1:50

Gracious John, returned to form last time considering he was way too far back half way through he race. He is on a great mark with a good 7lbs claimer on. There is a decent chance he’ll bounce back for Ian Williams.

2 Points win 14/1 365/betfair/paddy

Ebor Longshots

24 Saturday Aug 2019

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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Ebor longshots 

Prince of Arran looks sure to be suited by this race and he looks overpriced .

1 point we 40/1 7 places paddy

Barsanti looks to have this in mind all year .

1 point ew 20/1 7 places paddy

York Friday

23 Friday Aug 2019

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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3:35

I’m hoping battash wins here but Ornate should outrun his odds here . This fast 5 will suit him. Anyone with 365 could go 50/1 with 5 places which looks a great bet . I’m going 100/1 with 3.

1 pt ew 100/1 gen

York Day 1

21 Wednesday Aug 2019

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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3:00 York

Norway hasn’t often been ridden with winning in mind, but still has bags of potential. There isn’t a lot between any of these and he has the best form in the book. 14/1 in a 5 horse race is madness

2 Points win 14/1 Generally.

3:35 York

Circus Maximus comes out 2nd best of these on ratings and he is a tough as it gets. I think he can out battle everything else maybe bar the fav here and 6/1 w/o the fav  is possibly twice he’s real price here, and in fact he may well go off at  that price to win.

3 Points win 6/1 w/o fav 365 and others.

1:55 York
Foolad has some very good course form and is back to a workable mark here.
 
1Point EW 6 place 33/1 paddy 40/1 5 places elsewhere
 
4:15
Clever Cookie, has some decent form first time out, and altough he isnt getting any younger he has been given a change by the handicapper if he is on a going day
.
1 Point EW 5 polace 66/1 Paddy/betfair/unibet

Long shot Saturday

17 Saturday Aug 2019

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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3:15 Ripon
Lancelot Du Loc, showed a bit last week and I got a nice surprise when I had a look at his form on soft ground. He is certainly a lot better. His draw should be fine .
2 Points EW 6 places Paddy/hills

 

 

3:35 Newbury

Librisa Breeze , is actually the best of these on his best form and has a good record fresh and likes soft ground. Not much more reason needed to have a go at a huge price.

1 Point win 22/1 generally

2:05 Ripon

Orions Bow is a cliff horse for many, but thankfully I haven’t wasted too many bets on him before this. If he puts in in he may have a shout here, and when I go through the field a I can’t see any of them winning.

1 Point ew 33/1 5 places.

Silver Saddle Bet

10 Saturday Aug 2019

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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Only 1 bet today. #bandwagon #ShergarCup
 
I like most of Mosse’s rides today and looking at it he should be near FAV. 9/1 looks big
 
2 Points win 9/1 Silver Saddle lads/coral/888
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