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LongshotValue

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Author Archives: longshotvalue

Group 1 Sunday

08 Sunday Sep 2019

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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Longchamp 2:50
 
As much as I think Circus just wins and is probably value at 9/2 Olmedo is even more overpriced here at 20 on Betfair. There is very little between him and the top of the market here on form.
 
1 Point win 20 Betfair Exch

Long Shot Lucky 15

07 Saturday Sep 2019

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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Gone for a big price EW Lucky15 Today
 
2:45 Ascot Kimifive 20/1
3:35 Haydock Clever Cookie 33/1
4:10 Haydock So Perfect 25/1
2:20 Navan Mi Esperanza 40/1
 
5 Places cant be got on all but So Perfect.
 
Total Advised Spend 6 Points

Long Shot Saturday

31 Saturday Aug 2019

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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Down Royal 5:45

Utah is a horse I noticed running better here 2 runs ago than his finish indicated. He is of a nice mark with a step up in trip and Colin Keane booked. 40/1 with 4 places is well worth a bet

1 Point EW 40/1 4 places lads/hills

Sandown 1:50

Gracious John, returned to form last time considering he was way too far back half way through he race. He is on a great mark with a good 7lbs claimer on. There is a decent chance he’ll bounce back for Ian Williams.

2 Points win 14/1 365/betfair/paddy

Ebor Longshots

24 Saturday Aug 2019

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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Ebor longshots 

Prince of Arran looks sure to be suited by this race and he looks overpriced .

1 point we 40/1 7 places paddy

Barsanti looks to have this in mind all year .

1 point ew 20/1 7 places paddy

York Friday

23 Friday Aug 2019

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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3:35

I’m hoping battash wins here but Ornate should outrun his odds here . This fast 5 will suit him. Anyone with 365 could go 50/1 with 5 places which looks a great bet . I’m going 100/1 with 3.

1 pt ew 100/1 gen

York Day 1

21 Wednesday Aug 2019

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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3:00 York

Norway hasn’t often been ridden with winning in mind, but still has bags of potential. There isn’t a lot between any of these and he has the best form in the book. 14/1 in a 5 horse race is madness

2 Points win 14/1 Generally.

3:35 York

Circus Maximus comes out 2nd best of these on ratings and he is a tough as it gets. I think he can out battle everything else maybe bar the fav here and 6/1 w/o the fav  is possibly twice he’s real price here, and in fact he may well go off at  that price to win.

3 Points win 6/1 w/o fav 365 and others.

1:55 York
Foolad has some very good course form and is back to a workable mark here.
 
1Point EW 6 place 33/1 paddy 40/1 5 places elsewhere
 
4:15
Clever Cookie, has some decent form first time out, and altough he isnt getting any younger he has been given a change by the handicapper if he is on a going day
.
1 Point EW 5 polace 66/1 Paddy/betfair/unibet

Long shot Saturday

17 Saturday Aug 2019

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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3:15 Ripon
Lancelot Du Loc, showed a bit last week and I got a nice surprise when I had a look at his form on soft ground. He is certainly a lot better. His draw should be fine .
2 Points EW 6 places Paddy/hills

 

 

3:35 Newbury

Librisa Breeze , is actually the best of these on his best form and has a good record fresh and likes soft ground. Not much more reason needed to have a go at a huge price.

1 Point win 22/1 generally

2:05 Ripon

Orions Bow is a cliff horse for many, but thankfully I haven’t wasted too many bets on him before this. If he puts in in he may have a shout here, and when I go through the field a I can’t see any of them winning.

1 Point ew 33/1 5 places.

Silver Saddle Bet

10 Saturday Aug 2019

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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Only 1 bet today. #bandwagon #ShergarCup
 
I like most of Mosse’s rides today and looking at it he should be near FAV. 9/1 looks big
 
2 Points win 9/1 Silver Saddle lads/coral/888

Long Shot Saturday

03 Saturday Aug 2019

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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1:50 Goodwood

If you look at the races Dark Shot gets cover and the ones he doesn’t, there is a huge difference. He got none here during the week again and ran poorly. He’ll certainly get it here and look sure to get involved in the finish.

2 Points EW 7 places 20/1 sky 6places paddy/betfair

2:25 Goodwood

What a Welcome, seemed to do too much early last time out and can be forgiven. If he can get back to the form of his run here earlier this year, he’ll be involve in the finish here. He’s on a workable mark compared to the fav.

1 Point EW 4 places 25/1 Gen

3:40 Goodwood

George Bowen has been the only horse on my mind or this for a while, and I was hoping for a big price. He has been good this year, but has excuses for his last few poor runs, which have him now on the right mark.

2 Points EW 33/1 7 places Sky 6places paddy Lads

2:30 Galway

Mitchouka, showed a return to form on his second last run and I wonder will he be suited by this step up in trip given his good 4yo form on soft ground. He’s on a nice mark with a 7lbs claimer on, in a relatively poor race for the money.

1 Point EW 33/1 5 places paddy/vc/sky

3:40 Goodwood

I’ve been looking for a low drawn horse, and I’m going to go with Hyperfocus. He is an all or nothing performer but has won of this mark is drawn 2. He has been gradually improving lately, and 100/1 is the price I was looking for

1 Point EW 100/1 7 places sky, 6 places else

Long shot Friday

02 Friday Aug 2019

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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Good wood 3:00

Well Drawn, course form . Big price . Has to be backed here . Chance if he can get over standard meydan headache . 

1 pt ew Original Choice 50/1 5 places

 

3:35

There isn’t a lot between any of these after the fav and Ornate will be suited by the fast track here . 

1 pt ew 50/1 gen

 

Galway 5:10

Can’t resist Orgilgo Bay . Back from a very long break with some flat runs . On a good mark in a race he has form  .

1 pt ew 50/1 5 places (extra place special) 365 4 places elsewhere

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  • For a bet in the hurdle , I had a point on Zanahir at 12/1 without first 2 . https://t.co/2HmY05fNPt 8 hours ago
  • Some day for racing . Place is heaving https://t.co/WAi3ibHIf9 8 hours ago
  • 4:10 leop I’d hoped for a few points bigger on Ballyadam but I still think he is value. The fav could be differe… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… 9 hours ago
  • 1:10 leop I’ve had Braganza in mind for a race like this for a while. This trip on reasonable ground should suit… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… 1 day ago
  • Not a tip as it’s an awkward bet. But I had a point on Franco de port at 9/1 without the top 2 in betting in hills… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… 1 day ago
  • @Scottdutch84 Fell . Not up to the level of that I’d imagine. 1st was unreal . Banbridge fished like the jlt or wh… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… 1 day ago
  • This is the best novice chase I’ve ever seen. 1 day ago
  • 4:20 leop Battleoverdoyen is well capable of running well here. He ran well last time is a very good race , and I… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… 1 day ago
  • 3:40 leop The longshot gut feeling dart has landed on The Very Man . He has some nice form and a good run on the… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… 1 day ago
  • 2:30 leop Obviously I’m on the Saint Roi train early for march. I don’t quite fancy him as much here as then but h… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… 1 day ago
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