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LongshotValue

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Author Archives: longshotvalue

Tuesday longshot

23 Tuesday May 2017

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

≈ 2 Comments

3:00 nott

Barizan looks overpriced to place here at 33/1

1 point ew 33/1 generally

York Day 2

18 Thursday May 2017

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

≈ 1 Comment

York 4:05

Glory Awaits, gave a field of good horses a beating and weight on heavy ground in the past and if he can improve today 8:07 is a nice weight for such a classy horse in soft ground. I think 40/1 is easily worth a bet  .

1 Point EW 40/1 hills/VC 33/1 Generally

York Day 1

16 Tuesday May 2017

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

≈ Leave a comment

2:55 York

Toofi has all the things I like in a sprinter here. He has a load of zero’s by his name, is a big price but showed an inkling that he is about to turn a corner. He caught the eye last time out when probably needing the run and being on the wrong side of the track. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he were to improve here and if he wants to run at Royal Ascot he will need to win this to get in. 33/1 looks well worth the risk

1 Point EW 33/1 Ladbrokes 28/1 pp/betfair

York 2:20

I’ve been drawn into a small EW bet on Oasis Fantasy at a huge price here because he does have course form and is well capable of this mark. He started of poor in mayden but did improve in his second run. Once that hasn’t affected him too much he could well outrun his odds here.

1 Point EW 40/1 5 Places Coral 33/1 6 places Sky 33/1 5 places Ladbrokes

 

York 3:30

Baccarat isn’t as far of the pace here as his price indicates. He was poor on his last run in mayden but is right up there on his other form this year. He looks more of a 20/1 shot so he is worth a small bet at 33/1. He is a pretty solid 111 horse and if things go his way here he can get involved.

1 Point EW 4 places 33/1 sky 33/1 3 places generally

6:15 Punchestown
Mr Fiftyone strikes me as the most likely winner of this race and as such 8/1 looks a big price to me. He showed a lot of improvement last time out and came good this time last year with 2 good wins around here. The second one was of a higher mark than today. I can see him going of half the price he is now.
2 Points win 8/1 365 7/1 generally

Monday Longshot

15 Monday May 2017

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

≈ Leave a comment

Killarney 7:40

Air Command has some novice form that reads very well for a horse with a mark of 114. He will need to improve on his recent runs but that said he did show up well last time until a mistake 3 out put paid to any chance he had. This a big step up in trip but that should help.  This race is fairly poor for a decent pot and with a light weight on his back I think he might outrun his odds here. I’m going to have a small saver on an old favorite on mine Dare To Endeavor, who would get close if he returned to form.

1 Point win Air Command 20/1 VC 18/1 Betbright

½ Point win Dare To Endeavour 25/1 Generally

Victoria Cup both selections placed at big prices

13 Saturday May 2017

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

≈ 1 Comment

 

 

1.5 Points EW 50/1 6 places Paddy Power.

My second pick in this is another 50/1 shot Shady McCoy. He really got going last year after a good win at Goodwood. He was a very good second to Salateen which has won 3 more times since, at Newmarket in what looks a very good race. He also ran well in a big handicap at Goodwood when not getting luck in running. If he can get back to that form here he could well be closing on these at the finish and looks value to get involved.

1 Point ew 50/1 6 places Paddy Power

Ive decided to go with something on the other side here just in case, especially when im left with 1 selection in this race. Zhui Feng looks very interesting of his mark here combined with a step back in trip. I think he looks like a 7 furlong horse and the fact he stays further will help here in this strongly run race. He has 2 good runs already this year and could be an improving 4yo. He showed plenty of speed as a 2yo .

1 Point EW 25/1 6 places sky & paddy 25/1 5 places generally

Friday Night Longshot

12 Friday May 2017

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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Ascot 7:50

Watchable looks to have a decent shot at this race. A lot of these aren’t on form of have gone up a lot in handicap mark. In additional the favorite is having his first run this year. Watchable  actually has a very good record at Ascot with 3 3rds in top class races here. 10/1 seems a few points too big .

1 Point win 10/1 365/VC/Bright

Long Shot Saturday

12 Friday May 2017

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

≈ Leave a comment

3:10 Haydock

I was very temped to write a 2 word explanation here but I won’t do that. Peace and Co should be far too good for these and I just can’t see anything that will give him any trouble at all if he is back to any kind of form. He was a big eye-catcher last time out when nothing went right, and he wasn’t given a hard race when his chance was gone. He did settle really well which was always his trouble in the past. 15/2 looks a very good price for him and he could easily outclass these and go of about 7/2. I take it as significant that he is still in training this year for this race, as I have him as a big fancy of mine for the County until he didn’t run.

3 Points win 15/2 VC/Lad/Coral/black 7/1 generally

Ascot 2:50

Fire Fighting’s last win came over a fast 12 furlongs last year in Newmarket of a mark of 108. A repeat of that run here would give him a superb chance. There is nothing between a lot of these on current mark so 14/1 is certainly value

1 Point win 14/1 365/vc/stan/lads

 

Ascot 4:00

Professor takes a leap of faith to give him a hope here but he really has been given a chance by the handicapper. He has been improving a bit over his last few runs and arrives here fit and ready to run. He if recovers even the form of his 6th last year in the Challenge Cup over this course and distance he will be right in the firing line here as he has 15lbs less to carry now. 50/1 and 6 places with paddy power looks madness to me.

NON-RUNNER

1.5 Points EW 50/1 6 places Paddy Power.

My second pick in this is another 50/1 shot Shady McCoy. He really got going last year after a good win at Goodwood. He was a very good second to Salateen which has won 3 more times since, at Newmarket in what looks a very good race. He also ran well in a big handicap at Goodwood when not getting luck in running. If he can get back to that form here he could well be closing on these at the finish and looks value to get involved.

1 Point ew 50/1 6 places Paddy Power

Ive decided to go with something on the other side here just in case, especially when im left with 1 selection in this race. Zhui Feng looks very interesting of his mark here combined with a step back in trip. I think he looks like a 7 furlong horse and the fact he stays further will help here in this strongly run race. He has 2 good runs already this year and could be an improving 4yo. He showed plenty of speed as a 2yo .

1 Point EW 25/1 6 places sky & paddy 25/1 5 places generally

Chester Cup Longshot

10 Wednesday May 2017

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

≈ Leave a comment

3:35 Chester

Suegioo hasn’t run in that many handicaps in the last year or 2 but he has been very consistent in group races and i think he is better than his mark of 102 here. He has of course been drawn outside which isn’t as huge a problem for him as he will be coming home late. I think his place chances here are a fair bit better than the 7/1 we will get as part of his current price of 33/1 and that makes him value.

1 Point EW 33/1 hills/vc/paddy/betfair

Monday Longshot

09 Tuesday May 2017

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

≈ Leave a comment

Ayr 4:30

Redvers showed a bit more in his last run last year and he has a decent record fresh. G Lee also has a very good strike rate for this trainer with 3 wins from 5 rides. He is a much better horse than this mark and if he is ready today these horses cant give him weight

2 Points win 10/1 Generally

Sunday Long Shot

07 Sunday May 2017

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

≈ Leave a comment

1000 Guineas

Queen Kindly seems to have been written of a bit too quickly . Fillies can be inconsistent but she has plenty of form in the book that would give her a chance here . She did catch the eye on debut this year in the Fred Daring , when absolutely everything went wrong and I’m convinced she hasnt much to find on the winner of that race who is far shorter .33/1 with 4 places is certainly value .

1 point ew 33/1 4 places paddy/sky

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