Ascot 3:30

I like the Actival here as I was impressed with him last year up to this last disappointing run and I think there could be a lot more in the tank, but he is hard to justify as joinf Fav with so little experience in this race.

Of the others I think the value lies with Pine Creek, he has been super consistent in big handicaps , and will be very difficult to kick out of the 5 here at a decent looking 16/1 with Bet365 and 5 places. He is on better terms with Clondaw Warrior here for his season reappearance when a good 5^th in the Greatwood, and won’t need a lot of improvement to get involved here, where he has a very good record.

1 Point EW 16/1 Bet365 5 places

1 Nice winner and 2 fallers seems a bit less than i expected yesterday with a  confident few selections, but still a bit of profit none the less and hopefully the start of a long overdue upswing

Hong Kong Sprint

Sole Power just isn’t an 8/1 shot here. This isn’t the best of these races, and I don’t go along with the worry about the trip over 6 furlongs as much as most. If he gets a gap a fast ground 6 furlongs wont be any issue. He was 2^nd last year and looks to me to be a minimum of 2-3 points too big.

2 Points win 8/1 Generally

1:25 Cheltenham

Astracad may well have found his level here. He is infuriating lately as he really should be winning soon with some of his placed performances in the last 2 years. He is down to a career low mark with a good 5lbs claimer on here and will carry bottom weight. 13/2 looks value.

2 Points in 13/2 VC & Coral

3:45 Cheltenham

I’m not one to look a total gift horse in the mouth but Rock on Ruby is fairly long odds on in this race on these terms on decent ground. He didn’t run up to expectations last time out but has been poor enough before first time out before and doesn’t need to be at his best here. Form and orderly queue.

3 Points win 13/8

In addition I think The New One should also be shorter so the double at best prices of 8/15 new one and 13/8 rock on ruby with VCbet and a few others looks huge at over 3/1

2 Point’s double 13/8 & 8/15 VCbet

2:00 Cheltenham

I’ve looked at this race countless times over the last day or so and I just can’t find anything of value here other than the Favourite Caid Du Berlais. His finish last time in a vastly superior race in the Paddy Power was eye popping on further viewing, particularly his last 2 jumps.  He should be even better on the sounder surface . I’m coming to the opinion that 5lbs is nowhere near enough to stop him here given the depth and strength of the paddy power. 4/1 looks value as much as I hate backing favourites in these races.

2 Points win 4/1 Generally

Cheltenham 2:40

I love these races and I think Duke of Lucca is significantly well in here compared to most of the other contenders. He ran really well at the festival last year over c&d and is a proven performer of this mark in standard chases. He will love the good ground and this race isn’t as strong as it could have been. He is favourite to win in my book and a solid 3 point win bet at the best available odds of 13/2

3 Points win 13/2

Cheltenham 2:10

Standing Ovation sticks out here as decent bit of value at 8/1 in this race. He was pulled up after his chance had gone last time but a reproduction of his 2nd in a stronger race here in October could well be enough. The very unexposed The Ould Lad could be anything but it’s hard to have him at favourite here. 8/1 about my selection looks about 3 points too big as there are a few ahead of him in the betting I don’t fancy at all.

2 Points Win 8/1 Various

Cheltenham 1:40

Starluck has been running well enough this year and this drop in class along with a nice drop in mark, should see him competitive. He has got one of the better claimers on board as well and could well have decent finish in him down at this level. 7/1 looks value and I think we’re sure to get a good run for our money.

2 Points win 7/1 various

1:30 Aintree

Pretty Difficult Race as expected but I’m going to go with Across the bay for starters here. He is back down to a workable mark and has shown a nice bit of form over these fences, without ever really getting it all together here. On his day he is a tough animal and ran particularly well last year in the national until taken out of it by a loose horse. 33/1 ew with 5 places looks a decent bit of value. I’m also going with small win bets on 2 more of the outsiders in Burton Port which is just too big a price for a classy horse and a gut feeling selection in Shakalakaboomboom, who I wouldn’t be surprised to see come back to a bit of form here.

1 Point EW Across the bay 33/1 5 places Generally

1 Point win Burton Port 34 betfair

1 Point win Shakalakaboomboom 36 Betfair

3:15 Aintree

I’ve been wondering when a race would come along to suit Champion Court , and I get the feeling he will be suited by a decent mark here and a nice light weight. This race has a weak enough look to it for such a high profile chase, he is the type to get into a rhythm around here and of this mark may not be caught as easily as before. The extra 5lbs claim as well here makes him look the best treated in the field and the 11/1 here in a few places loos a nice be it of value.

1 Point win 11/1 Various

Sandown 3:00

Somersby looks overpriced in this poor renewal. I’m not at all sure that any of last year’s novices are up to this standard and if not Somersby’s 8/1 price is much too big. Oscar Whisky is a bit of a fly in the ointment back in trip but I’m not sure what his jumping will be like at this speed.

1 Point win 8/1 Generally

Chepstow 3:10

Amigo ran well enough in the Welsh national last year here of a much higher mark and seems to have been dropped to far here. He will need to win this to get back into that race and is still relatively unexposed having had only a few races over fences. He was in the process of running well on his first run of the year until slipping up  and  id be happy with the 7/1 on offer here.

1 Point win 7/1 Generally

3:10 Fairyhouse

Folsom Blue looks the wrong price here. He is a sure stayer and has performed well of this mark in the past, including 5th in the Irish national last year. He isn’t the pick of B Cooper here but that could be more to do with the fact that the 5lbs will be handy here of top weight. He looks great value at 20/1 with VC BET

2 Points EW 20/1 VCBET

2:05 Newcastle

This looks a very poor renewal and with various question marks over most of the field it looks a simple task to pick out the value here at the current prices. Sea Lord is anything but proven on the ground but I can’t have the favourite at the prices and the stable in in great form. I’ve missed the 14/1 but 12/1 will suffice as he’s not that in this race. He’ll go of at 8/1 or less.

1 Point win 12/1

2:40 Newcastle

If there is one possible underrated horse in this field it has to be Indian Castle . He will need to improve on his season al reappearance but he should do that and this looks a poorish renewal of this race. He has form on soft ground and to me is less exposed than the favourite here.  6/1 looks a fair price and seems the best value here to me.

1 Point win 6/1 Generally

1:20 Newbury

Midnight Appeal takes a decent drop in class here after a very good run last week off 1lb higher. This trip will be more up his street and it looks significant to get him back out that quick, and on form could win this with a bit in hand. I expect him to be backed later on and the current 6/1 looks a nice bit of value.

1 Point win 6/1 Generally

I’m going to get a bet in here early for my main fancy for this as the price is only going to get lower.

I think this race will really suit Unioniste, he is a dour stayer and looks to love soft ground. He ended last season poorly but will surly be ready for this race. The stable are on fire at the moment.  20/1 looks a cracking EW bet

2 Points EW Unioniste Various

The outsider of the field Shamiran impressed me with his jumping in a few of his novice chases and he has been running well enough while possibly not getting the softer ground he needs. He should be staying on at the finish here with only 10 stone on his back. 80 is very big on betfair and ill got with 1 Point win 80 and 1 point place 12

Betfair Chase 3:00 Haydock

Cue Card ran poorly first time out last year the same as he has done last year and given that its almost the exact same race in the same conditions he really should be winning this if he is in form. There is a slight doubt given his injury last year but at 4/1 he looks worth the risk.

2 Points win 4/1 Generally

Amlin Chase Ascot 2:05

Somersby is the most consistent animal here and looks to have found a nice winning opportunity around a course he has run well on before. Wishful Thinking looked really good last time but his record is such that he couldn’t be trusted to do it again. I would have Somersby at around 4/1 here so the 15/2 on offer is very decent value.

2 Points win 15/2 VC/Stan/hills

Haydock 2:25

This looks a very tight race and I’m drawn to a horse who gave me my best day ever a while ago in Araldur at a huge price. He is of a decent mark and has a very decent record fresh along with a nice course performance in a good 3mile handicap here at the end of last year. I just get the feeling this has been his plan and 40/1 looks huge.

1 Point EW 40/1 Generally

Haydock 12:45

Lazyness has resulted in me missing the price of 12/1 that was available about Wellforth last night, but he will love this ground ran a great race for me at a gigantic price here last year when 2^nd in identical conditions in a tougher race of a higher mark, and I still recon the 9/1 available now is decent value.

1 Point win 9/1

Cheltenham 1:50

Safran de Cotte sticks out for me here as one who will get the trip in this ground and looks to be on a winnable mark. He also has a very decent record fresh and should be ready for this. 14/1 is overpriced. I’m also going again with Golden Chieftain as he is sure to win at some stage as his mark comes down and has a decent record on soft ground.

1 Point win Safran de Cotte 14/1

1 point win Golden Chieftain 12/1

Cheltenham 2:30

Cantlow ran poorly for me on his seasonal reappearance, but he has a decent record on soft ground and hasn’t really seen it since a few very good novice performance’s a while ago. He also ran a very good second in one of these c&d races last year of a higher mark against a very good yardstick. 25/1 is a very decent price with vcbet and well worth a shot.

1 Point win 25/1 VCBet