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LongshotValue

~ Finding Value

LongshotValue

Author Archives: longshotvalue

Tuesday Longshot

07 Tuesday Oct 2014

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

≈ 2 Comments

4:10 Leicester

Loving Spirit looks to have been gradually improving lately, and with a decent run last time against higher rated horses this step down in class might be enough to get him involved. 14/1 looks value in this field.

1 Point win 14/1 Skybet 12/1 generally

Arc Sunday

04 Saturday Oct 2014

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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1:00 Longchamp

Sole Power is in a different league to there but there is always an amount of luck required to win this and id prefer to go with 2 other bigger price bullets instead.

I think it looks now as if both Hot Streak and Pearl Secret are better over 5 Furlongs, and I would rate them very close or better than the likes of Stepper Point and Take Cover who are half the price. I’d be happy to take a punt on both given luck in running at what looks too big a price on each.

1 Point win Hot Streak 16/1 Various

1 Point win Pearl Secret 22/1 Coral

3:30 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe

I already have Ruler of the World and Treve in this and I’d be happy with both prices at the moment, but I can’t help having a small bet on Al Kazeem at a huge price given his draw and the fact that he has had a light season. He ran really well in it last year having had a poor run through and if he can get back to the form he showed earlier last year he stands a very decent EW chance given that he is drawn well and shouldn’t have to go around the whole field. The 4 places on offer in a few place is attractive in this race.

1 Point EW 66/1 4 Places ToteSport/Betfred

4:50 Longhamp

Vorda caught the eye in no uncertain terms in her last run and I feel this trip will be right up her street. She is undoubtedly overpriced at 20/1 and with the nice 3 yo allowance she should be able to get involved here.

1 Point EW 20/1 ¼ odds EW Stan James

Long Shot Saturday

04 Saturday Oct 2014

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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3:30 Newmarket

I’m going to start with what looks an obvious one here in Miss France. I don’t know how the market is the way it is at the moment. She looks the stable choice has top notch course form and really should be favourite in my book. 5/1 is twice the price she should be so can’t be missed.

3 Points win 5/1 Various

2:05 Ascot

Gut feeling is pointing to Addictive Dream having a tiny squeak here at a huge price. He has been showing speed lately and if he can hold on better here having improved a bit, it wouldn’t be out of the question for him to place. 50/1 with ¼ odds place in a few places if worth a gamble.

1 Point EW 50/1 365/lads/stan

3:15 Ascot,

Caspar Netscher’s run in the Group 1 Sprint Cup must put him in with a bit of a shout here. He seems to be improving sprinting and at current odds of 22/1 he looks a bit of value to get involved here down in class.

1 Point EW 22/1 VCbet.

3:50 Ascot

Sirius Prospect ran a decent race in the Wokingham over too short a trip and back here of the same mark over 7 Furlongs after a break and a decent return lately he could be overpriced here at 25/1. This race doesn’t looks as deep as the usual Ascot handicap of its type and his bit of class couls tell here.

1 Point ew 25/1 365/WillHill/VC

PRIX DE L’ARC DE TRIOMPHE Ante Post

30 Tuesday Sep 2014

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

≈ 5 Comments

With No Runner No Bet its time to have a bet on 2 horses I’ve had in mind for this.

Ruler of the World ran really well in this last year and got badly caught turning for home and again in the straight a couple of times. He has had a very light campaign this year and in what looks a poorer race with a load of the original favorites out I think that 14/1 is a great price.(16/1 is available without nrnb). I was going to go with a bigger EW bet but ill stick with a win bet.

1 Point win 14/1 PP nrnb

Although Treve was poor enough last time out,I believe that the current 10/1 on offer is going to look really good on Sunday. Fillies can put in a stinker at any time and one thing that counts in this race is previous race form. I can only imagine how punters would be looking at each other in disgust if she was to win at such a huge price after basically 1 bad run. Rain looks to be on the way and if it does come up with any amount of Soft in the description, she may well be the most likely winner in my book, and as such big mistakes in price like that have to be taken advantage of.

3 Points win 10/1 Paddy Power nrnb.

Long Shot Saturday

27 Saturday Sep 2014

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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4:10 Haydock

Typical of sprint horses Racy is very hard to predict, but a times he will be value given his profile. He looks a 5 furlong horse so his previous 2 runs can be ignored over 6 furlongs, even though he showed up well in the Ayr Gold Cup he faded in the finish. This trip will be far more suitable and he can be competitive of a mark of 98. He showed what he is capable of this year at Ascot winning very good race and is probably worth a shot at going in again at 25/1.

1 Point win 25/1 Generally

Newmarket 3:50

Not surprisingly I’m going for a couple of big outsiders in this lottery charge. God Willing has a fair amount of evidence in his short racing career that he may well be able to give a good showing of his current mark. Some of his races are littered with much higher rated horses and decent performances, and hopefully he has had this as his target. He is in here at the bottom of the weights with a nice 3yo allowance and with the assistance of the jockey of the moment. 40/1 looks a nice gamble. Quick Wit has a few decent end of season performances in his career and looks to have been given a decent change by the handicapper here after his poor last run. He is a sold 100+ performer and looks to be underestimated here also at 40/1.

Im also going to add my initial gut feeling selection for this in Yeager, simply because the remote will end up in the middle of the tv if he won and i had changed my mind. He looks to be one that could have been aimed at this and even though the 40/1 is gone id still be happy with 33/1

1 Point win each  Quick Wit & God Willing at 40/1 Generally

1 Point win Yeager 33/1 Generally

Newmarket 5:35

In for a penny in for a pound, no explanation needed as we stand on the edge of the cliff with Pastoral Player. The races get poorer the mark get lower and eventually he is bound to win, more than likely the time after I stop putting him up. Anyway 16/1 looks a bit of value.

1 Point win 16/1 Ladbrokes

Longshot Saturday

20 Saturday Sep 2014

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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Ayr Gold Cup

 

Short writeups as on the mobile, but im going for experience and both sides of the track here, along with a cliff horse that might come good.

Hawkeyethenew may well have been readied for this and has been steadily improving to a very decent run last time . 22\1 with 5 places looks great value.

York glory is bound to run his race soon enough and is worth the risk at 33\1.

Jack Dexter is another that could get involved at a huge price. He is drawn low but its better to be safe than sorry.

2 pts ew 5 places Hawkeye 22\1
1 pt win York Glory 33\1
1 pt win Jack Dexter 33\1

Long Shot Friday

11 Thursday Sep 2014

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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Doncaster 2:10

Lahaag got a silly ride last time and finished full of running at York, when he was a pretty confident bet from me. This step up in trip should really suit and he could well be much better than this mark.

2 Points win 12/1 Generally

Doncaster 2:40

Repeater has been 3rd and 4th in this the last 2 years and his last run left me with the impression he will be back up there again this time.  There isn’t really much reason for him to be twice the price of Biographer here and 25/1 looks great value.

1 Point EW 25/1 Generally

1 Point EW Double 12/1 & 25/1 Generally 

Long Shot Saturday

05 Friday Sep 2014

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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3:50 Haydock

Sole Power and Gordon Lord Byron should really be well clear of these on all known form, but when I looked at the race earlier this week I set a bar of 20/1 on the price of Pearl Secret and now that he is available at 25/1 I’ll be going with that for value. The ground here should be more suitable than the good-firm he won on last week and he is still a relatively unexposed sprinter after only 11 runs. He has never raced over 6 but the way he finished here over 5 in the Temple Stakes makes it a risk worth taking at the price.

1 Point win 36 Betfair 1 Point Place 10 Betfair

I always like to go with something at a huge price in these races and this time I think Maarek might be able to get involved at a huge 50/1 on Betfair. The ground probably isn’t really soft enough for his best form but he has some decent form on decent ground and is just the type to suddenly kick into form at the end of the season, like he has done every year. Over 50/1 is value, even in these conditions.

1 Point Place 13, ½ Point win 55 Betfair

Ascot 1:55

Don’t Call Me was one of my better bets of the flat season over this C&D and he got duly placed at 33/1. He didn’t really get the best of runs there and I think he can run well again here at 14/1 which looks about 4 points too big. He is still well in on his old form of this mark

1 Point win 14/1 BetVictor

Ascot 5:15

Zero Money is a horse I’ve been waiting for to get back to form. He has almost perfect 0000 for this year and was much the same towards the end of last year until this week when he won fairly easily at Lingfield of a higher mark than today. He has been breaking well and not staying but I’m pretty sure that one of these days he will not get caught and I’ll be there at big odds until that day comes.

1 Point win 25/1 Generally vc/stan/coral

Long Shot Sunday

31 Sunday Aug 2014

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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We were dam close yesterday to pulling of a decent win with Mezzotint at 25/1 but he got caught near the finish. This year has been a frustrating one for huge priced horses coming 2nd.. 

 

Brighton 2:00

Jiroft is one of those sprinters that will win at some stage he has dropped so far in mark. He showed a bit more last time out that he had done for while and if the 7lbs claimer on today can get a tune out of him at all he might make the current 12/1 on offer look very decent value.

1 Point win 12/1 Sporting/Will Hill

Curragh 3:35

I’m not sure there is a lot between Palace and the Favorite here on form and the current huge difference in price isn’t justified. There was only 1/2 length between then at Naas a while ago and I’m not sure the winner then is a lot better than that now. 8/1 looks decent value on good ground over this trip.

1 Point win 8/1 Coral/Boyle

Long Shot Saturday

30 Saturday Aug 2014

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

≈ 1 Comment

Good racing looks thin on the ground , as does any real value outsiders.

2:05 Sandown

Even Stevens looked like a horse ready to improve again after his last run after a break at Doncaster. He broke smartly and just wilted in the final furlong, hopefully in need on the run after a short break. A mark of 85 is well withing his grasp and he may not be as easy to catch today. 36 on betfair looks a nice bit of value.

1 Point win 36 Betfair

2:20 Chester

I’m going to take small risk on Magical Macey , he hasn’t been in great form this year but showed a little more last time out and is back to his last winning mark here. He hasn’t the greatest draw in the world but his price justifies the risk at 33/1

1 Point win 33/1 Generally

2:55 Chester

Mezzotint is one I’ve been keeping an eye on lately and his second last run was eye-catching in that he didn’t get any kind of run at all and finished with loads left to give. He is bottom of the weights here and down to a very nice mark on his best form. Any kind of recapture here will put him right in with a shout. 20/1 looks good value.

1 Point win 20/1 Generally

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