2:35 Sandown

Chti Balco has plenty of decent form this year and will be suited by the ground. He should also stay on here of what seems a lenient mark. His 3rd behind Ballymoy earlier this year has worked out and we only have to forgive his last run to put him right in the picture here. The 5 places in particular here is a huge given there is only 14 runners.

2 Points ew 33/1 5 places sky/paddy/vc

Arkle Value Play

We’re is a good position in this race with our Hardline pick from a couple of weeks ago at 25/1, but I see an potential value NRNB play as well that I just can’t ignore. It seems clear to me that Mengli Kahn is a soft ground 2 miler. His run at Christmas wasn’t that bad considering it was on unsuitable good ground and I can safely ignore the Dublin Racing Festival run on basically firm. He will improve for cut and although it’s more likely we’ll be getting our money back when they run in in the JLT instead, we just can’t be leaving this value lying around. He’s a 16/1 shot here if its soft and he turns up so 33/1 has to be taken. The soft ground festival form cannot be ignored either and there is literally no chance he will run in this race if the ground is good-soft.

2 Points EW 33/1 NRNB Coral/Fred/Tote/Sporting

JLT

It appears from comments that its likely Paloma Blue will go for the JLT. One thing we can be sure of if he goes he can’t go of at more than 10/1 in what will probably be a small enough field. He was probably the one to take out of last year supreme and if he can get jumping better he won’t be far away in this race.

2 Points win 16/1 NRNB Various  

Doncaster 1:50

Brillare Momento looks underestimated here at 11/1 is this field. She had run well and won of higher arks, and with this claimer one. Poor Chase start latest is resulting in big price and she is worth a small bet

1 Point win 11/1 365/hills/VC  

Newbury 2:40

Shanahans Turn has no form at all over 2 miles so his poor run last week can be forgiven. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he put in a much better round here of a very low mark with a 7lbs claimer on. It’s worth a shot at 33/1 with 5 places..

1 Point EW 33/1 ¼ place 365 1/5th elsewhere

JLT

I just have to have a bet here on Hardline as well. I would have originally thought he would go here and this looks a weak race. We’ll get our money back if he doesn’t run in the Arkle and I just can’t see him going of bigger than 8/1 if he lies up here. In addition he looks the most likely winner of this race if he does go for it. 16/1 nrnb is well worth a bet now.

2 Points win 16/1 nrnb 365

3:40 Chepstow

TobeFair hasn’t really been great over fences but his race should be right up his street. He has won of a higher mark over hurdles before and with a few firms going 4 places here even with the non-runners he has to be a bet.

1 Point EW 28/1 4 places vc 25/1 4 places paddy/sky

3:35 Kempton

My Handicap Pick for the festival goes here and I can’t not have a bet. He needs to go up a pound or two to get in anyway but I think he is well handicapped anyway and defiantly value at 20/1 here.

1 Point EW 20/1 Romain De Senam

Champion Bumper

Now is as good a time as any to back a 20/1 shot that will go of about 8/1 . Meticulous is gradually improving and was on the way to running down the fav for this race last time out. I think he will love the hill here and there is just no chance he goes off at anything like this price. If he does we can just keep backing it. You’d have to be sure the Joseph has learned from the master and this one looks to be boiling nicely for the big day.

2 Points win NRBD paddy/vc

Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate

I’ve had Romain De Senam in mind for one of these races all year, and nothing has gone right for him. He has some smart form around here and also at the festival. On any kind of half decent ground he’ll be sure to get competitive here of his current mark. He’s s decent jumper, and this is his trip. I’m convinced he’ll have this race in his mind all this year and 33/1 is huge.

2 Points EW NRNB Paddy/hills 33/1 5 place’s

Arkle

Hardline is one I had in mind for JLT but it appears this is his most likely race, and considering his form with Us and Them (who I also really rate here); he could well have some of the best 2 mile form ,when slamming him by 10 lengths. His run last time can be ignored as he was being minded on the ground and when the Jockey realized he had loads of horse left he made a huge amount of ground to be 3^rd.  25/1 is looking massive on collateral form.

2 Points win 25/1 nrnb 365/sky

Mares Hurdle

We’re going to take advantage of this market before everything changes shortly. I think Benie Des Dieux is over-rated on last year’s win, given Apples Jade wasn’t in form and my 66/1 selection nearly beat her. She looks to me to need a softer surface and may well get outpaced on good ground. My feeling is Limini’s form the year before is much stronger and she has been running well this year.  She wasn’t far behind Supasunday in the Hattons Grace and then ran well behind Percy last time out . She also has a number of good runs on the flat this year. If Laurina doesn’t go here I think she could well be in a 2 horses race, and the other one hasn’t seen the racecourse yet. Well play it safe and have a saver on Laurina just in case.

It’s not out of the question that Limini goes of Fav here at something like 7/4 (as its possible none of the ones above her in the betting are here at all) but she really can’t go off much bigger than 8/1 no matter who turns up.

2 Points win 8/1 365 NRNB Limini

½ Point win 4/1 Laurina hills/betfair Ante-post

Haydock 2:55

Soligoster is certainly in form judging by his very good 4^th at Ascot in a top class handicap chase. He fell next time out but if he can reach a similar level of form over hurdles here he looks to have a decent shot. 25/1 with many paying 4 places looks great value for a sure stayer.

1 Point EW 25/1 4 places vc/paddy/uni/fred

Haydock 3:35

I’m struggling to see why Ballyarthur is such a huge price here. He is in top form and his last 2 runs are very good. He did finish poorly both times but I’m not sure it’s as bad as it looked at the time and I’m pretty sure he will be in here pitching at the end as well. 33/1 is just too big to ignore.

1 Point EW 33/1 5 places betvc/Black

Ascot 3:20

I’ve a sneaking suspicion that Disingo may have a bit more to give than he has shown lately. He seems to travel well and is still a bit green from what I can see. He’s big enough price to take a shot at it here in a well-run race.

1 Point EW 66/1 5 places paddy/betfair

Punchestown 1:45

This tip has been brewing for a while. Bay of Freedom really enjoyed the 2 runs over banks at Cheltenham and just didn’t stay. He travelled really well in those races and they were far stronger than this one. We should have something to shout for turning for home here. This race can’t be as quick as the Cheltenham ones, which turned into a sprint. 40/1 looks massive for a 16/1 chance

2 Points EW 40/1 365 ¼ place 40/1 1/5^th hills/vc

4:20

Going for Orion Daubrelle in this . He shaped well last time and should improve . 33/1 is value .

1 point ew 33/1 5 places lads/vc