2:40 Wincanton

This looks a half decent renewal here and I’m going to go with a couple of horses that are on the way down the handicap in the hopes of a return to form here at big prices. Aiteen Thirtythree is down here to a more workable mark of 144 after getting crucified after his novice campaign by the handicapper. The stable does have a great record in this, but that said do have a more fancied runner here. He has looked a bit of a plodder in some of his races but this race may suit him and I’m hopeful that he is ready for his first race in a long time. I’m interested at the 17.5 currently on Betfair  or 16/1 with BetVictor.

I can’t leave Alfie Spinner go off at 33/1 just in case he can get back to form of what looks a very competitive mark. On his best form which isn’t that long ago he is thrown in here.

1 Point win Aiteen Thirtythree 16/1 BetVictor

½ Point win Alfie Spinner 33/1 Generally

2:40 Sandown

The minute I looked at this race is couldn’t get past Hectors Choice at 14/1 of a very good mark. He does have some decent form from last year, and has some good form first time out. He looks to have been dropped a few pounds too much and if he is fit he should have a great chance.

1 Point win 14/1 Generally

1:50 Doncaster

Conry came good at the end of last year and he showed last time out that he may be about to come good again shortly. He is a couple of pounds out of the handicap here but will love the conditions and should really be finishing his race well in what could be a stretch for a few of these. He has been relatively lightly race this season in comparison to most of this field as well which will be an advantage.

1 Point win Betfair 30

2:25 Doncaster

Hoof it is 6lbs better off with Jack Dexter for a 3 lenght beating last time out and has been running well this year, if a little bit short of finishing pace a few times. I though his last run looked as good as anything in a while and with the conditions of this race he shouldn’t be 14/1. He has been costing me points this year a few times but in general have been running well and overpriced.

2 Points win 14/1 Various

3:35 Doncaster

Communicator looks to have been running this year with this race in mind. He was second last year of a higher mark and has in the past some very decent form in soft ground. I would have expected him to be a bit shorter and have the feeling that the 18 now available on Betfair could look a decent price later on today.

2 Points win Communicator 18 Betfair 16/1 generally

I do love watching this race, and haven’t any real fancies this year but at teh moment there is a couple of what look standout prices for me.

Seville has had this in mind now for a long time and may just have the bit of class needed to forge ahead down the straight. He is 20/1 with ladbrokes and that looks a few points too big.

Simenon, is a proven Group 1 Stayer and is most certainly in here on the wrong weight, he still obviously has a lot to do in this field with the amount on luck required, but its possible this race could suit him perfectly and i didn’t think he’d be 14/1 on the day of the race. He is sure to be flying at the finish and let hope this time he gets there on time. He quite possibly has the right Jockey on him for his style of racing..

I have to trow in a huge price one in this race and of the big priced horses the one most likely to have a shot looks to be Ethiopia. He is a former winner of the Australian Derby and although he has been somewhat disappointing since, he looks to have improved in his last run and hopefully has had this race in mind. He looks worth a small bet a 66/1

1 Point win Seville 20/1 Ladbrokes

1 Point win Simenon 14/1 Bet365

1/2 Point win Ethiopia 66/1 Generally

Curragh 3:45

I fancy this horse might strike at some stage soon enough after a few eye-catching runs in these big field Curragh 7 furlong races this year. This is a step down in class so he has a lot of weight today, and id probably prefer to see and decent claimer on but at 28/1 ill have abet in case today is the day.

1 Point EW Norville 28/1 EW Bet Victor

Betfred Cesarewitch Newmarket 3:50

I like the look of Recession Proof in this. He improved massively as a hurdler and although he has been off the track for a long time up to his last run which he was bound to need, he is of a very decent looking mark here with an exceptional claimer on. He is only carrying 7:11  which in todays race will really be an advantage. 22/1 looks a decent price with 5 places and well worth a bet.

1 Point EW 22/1 5 Places Various

York 3:30

Secret Witness has clearly not being trying all the time lately, and I’m hopeful that today he will be having a go as its one of the last chances of the season for him to get a decent result. His 3rd in the Portland was eye-catching to say the least and if hes on his game today that will put him right in the mix here. 33/1 is big enough to take a chance.

1 Point EW 33/1 Bet365/Lads

York 5:20

Ask Dad has some decent form in Ireland and although he was poor enough on his first run for this stable any return to form at all will make his current price of 33/1 look a bit of value here. He is  on a great career low mark here and I’m  tempted to have small EW bet.

1 Point EW 33/1 Generally  

Arc

There are a fair few horses that I just can’t fancy in this ground today. The Favorite looks by far the most likely winner, in what looks a sub-standard Arc despite what the general opinion seems to be. The likes of Treve (draw), Intello (trip), Kizuna(quality) all look too short to me. Looking down the list Leading Light is sure to stay, but should really be vulnerable to a fast finisher. Meandre is one I’ve picked for this before and I think the current 50/1 EW with 4 places on Bet365 stands out a mile. One of the big priced horses is sure to get into the placed here and he looks the most likely even though he hasn’t been in great form this year. In Addition I like the chances of Very Nice Name of getting placed, he has a good draw and is a consistent animal who may be below top class but might just get involved on a  day like today.

1 Point EW 50/1 Meandre Bet365 4 Places

1 Point Place Very Nice Name 28/1 Bet365

3:15 Ascot

Difficult looking race where i sort of don’t fancy anything, but that said Hoof It looks a bit of value here at 10/1. He has some form on softer ground and has looked good on his last few runs this year. He wouldn’t need to be near his best to take this race, and anything near his 3^rd in the Sprint Cup would suffice here.

2 Points win 10/1 Paddy / 365

2:08 Longchamp

Yellow Rosebud will love the soft ground here and looks overpriced at 30 on Betfair. She will need to improve to take a hand in this but Dermot Weld wouldn’t be sending her over without some kind of chance. Her last run on soft ground was her best yet and shes worth a min bet

½ Point win 30 betfair

Ascot 3:50

Pastoral Player has a very decent Ascot Handicap Record particularly on softer ground and despite this being his first handicap run in a while I think he has a very decent chance here of this park. He will need a bit of luck in running as hell be played late but that could well work today in these conditions.

1 Point win 17 Betfair

Redcar 2:50

Dandy Boy, has a bit in hand on this on his best form and I liked the look of his last run which might just signal a return to form shortly. He will like the conditions and in this weaker race 9/1 looks Value, I make him more a 5.1 shot here.

2 Point win 9/1 Ladbrokes / Victor

Market Rasen 2:40

This looks a decent Chase and there are 2 that I think are well overpriced at the moment. Finger on the Pulse has been running well lately, is of a decent mark on old form as despite being 12 he may well be very hard to know out of the places here with such a low weight. The 25/1 with Stan James looks great value particularly if the 16 runners stay in. Well Regarded as some very decent hurdles form and has started well enough over fences. His mark here of 130 could well be within his grasp and he has a good record fresh.

1 Point EW Finger on the Pulse 25/1 Stan James

1 Point win Well Regarded 14/1 Betfred/Betfair

Chester 4:50

I’m giving Monsieur Chevalier one last chance here in what is a weak race in comparison to what he has been running in over his best trip of 7 furlongs with a great draw in 1 around Chester. The 12/1 from Stan James is too big for any drawn 1 horse around here and he certainly would be capable of this mark if on a going day.

1 Point win 12/1 StanJames

Haydock 3:30

Nothing has gone right for Elusivity so far this year but this race could well be a decent opportunity of a mark he can certainly perform off. It looks a very close race and the 16/1 about my selection looks some of the better value here. He has a couple of runs this year which if he can repeat here he won’t be far away, a good 4^th at york of 5lbs higher and a very good 7^th at Ascot on the wrong side of 6lbs higher.

1 Point win 16/1 Paddypower/BetVictor

Newmarket 3:50

Tha’ir sticks out here as a horse with some potential that has been very consistent this year. He is getting the 5lbs 3yo allowance which in all fairness he would need in this race. 25/1 looks a very decent price. I’ve been looking at this race for a while now and I’ve just noticed Fury at a huge price. He is down to a decent mark has had only 2 runs this year, although his last run this year was a disappointment after market support. He was 8^th last year in this of 9lbs higher and can surly perform of this mark, despite being a disappointing horse on a number of occasions. 40/1 with 5 places is certainly too big. I’ll go with another Haggis runner here in Arsaadi is proven of this mark after a very good 3rd in the Hunt Cup and has a few other runs this year which would make her price of 66/1 looks very decent..

½ Point win Thair 25/1 Various

1 Point EW Fury 40/1 Various 5 places

½ Point EW Arsaadi 66/1 BetVictor/StanJames

4:00 Leicester

Pandar is a formally decent Italian horse who hasn’t really shown that much since coming to the UK with Robert Cowell. But I’ve seen a bit of hope in his last few runs and I think the softer ground here will help, given that his best run was on softer ground earlier this year. He is probably better over 6 and I would expect to see him shortly in a 6f handicap but he may be worth a small bet at a big price today as improvement looks to be on the way of a decent mark.

½ Point EW 28/1 Stan James 25/1 elsewhere