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LongshotValue

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Long shot Sunday

03 Sunday Feb 2019

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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4:10

Any second now actually looks value for once in this race . He is always over bet but he is in form this year and won’t be far away here . He looks the best horse in this race and goes off about 9/2

2 points win 8/1

12:40

Allertrix has much better form over hurdles than a mark of 130 indicates . She was multiple graded race place efforts last year and if she acts on the ground here (she wouldn’t be here if not) , she looks to have a great chance

2 points ew 16/1 5 places vc/coral/u

 

1:15

If Joseph can sort out this 4 yo’s head as well as he has others that came from France he may well look great value at 40/1 . I’m not sure it’s ever clear with these young horses which is best . Eye catching run last time

1 point ew 40/1 1/4 place 365 Filon Dourdairies

1:50

If Elixir Dainay makes even average improvement from his very good debut behind the fav here, he could well get involved here . He’s not here for no reason , and is too big a price .

1 point ew 33/1 365 1/4 place

‪2:25‬

‪Oscar Knight was 2nd in that last year in a tougher race . With paddy and vc still going 5 places with only 12 runners 16/1 is a great price .‬

‪1 point ew 5 places 16/1 paddy and vc ‬

3:00

The Fav will be hard to beat but I think Hardline is underestimated here at 6/1 . His beating of Us and Them and Getabird is top class form and he looks a 3/1 shot to me . 6/1 or 11/2 is certainly too big

2 points win 6/1 betfair

4:10

I just can’t resist a bet on Valseur Lido here at 40/1. He’s good around here and travelled well last time out until he got tired . This trip and ground might get him close if his jumping is as good .

1 pt ew 40/1 5 places hill/paddy/sky

Long Shot Saturday

01 Friday Feb 2019

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

≈ 1 Comment

12:50 Leopardstown

I’m not sure I fancy anything near the top of the market here and it really doesn’t look like any of these will be playing a part in March. That said Rhinestone could well have enough improvement in him to play a part here. I thought he was a certainty for the bumper last year until the rains came, and this ground here should suit. He was definitely unlucky last time out and I just think he will be steadily improving this year. 14/1 looks a bit of value

1 Point win 14/1 VC/Coral 12/1 generally

1:25 Leopardstown

Petit Mouchoir is one of my horses to follow this year and simply put he is probably as good as anything else in this field if Apples Jade doesn’t perform. 16/1 is certainly too big and worth a small bet just in case.

1 Point win 16/1 generally

2:00 Leop

I’m afraid heart before head here but I still think Jezki has loads to offer even on some of his form this year. Of this mark on good ground he can win. The fav is a silly price. I’m finding it hard to see him in the first 6 here.

1 Point EW 33/1 Paddy 6 places

2:35 Leop

Meticulous didn’t seem to want to battle last time after a few bumps on the way and I think he could well be underrated here at a huge price. I’m not sure there is much between the rest of the field after the FAV and 33/1 looks great value.

1 Point EW 33/1 Paddy/Betfair

3:45

I think Us and Them is being underrated here. He is a superb jumper and if this race is a big burnout which it may well be, he stays well and should be suited by it. He looks to be in the top 3 here to me and 20/1 is bigger than I expected.

1 Point EW 20/1 paddy/betfair/vc

3:10 Leop

Going for Ordinary World at 12/1 w/o Min with Ladbrokes and Coral. He is very solid in these races and will be ridden to pick up the pieces.

1 Point win w/o Min 12/1 lads/coral

Meydan Last minute

31 Thursday Jan 2019

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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Fun Bet be quick

Meydan 6:00

Above N Beyond looks underestimated here of this mark. If he improves from his last run at all he can get involved. Decent horse in the UK with some good runes over here.

1 Point EW 50/1 Generally

Longshot Saturday

26 Saturday Jan 2019

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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@CheltenhamRaces 1:50

Casse Tete is interesting here at a big price. He ran well at the festival last year when not staying 3 miles and has a decent record of winning when down to a reasonable mark. He has jumped poorly this year but if that can be sorted, he could well go close here.

1 Point EW 20/1 5 places Hills 4 places Paddy

@CheltenhamRaces 3:25

I’m going to forgive Sam Spinner his last 2 runs and give him a chance here at a price that’s worth the gamble. The top of the market looks weak apart from Black Ops. 14/1 is too big and if he does win 33/1 is massive in the Stayers Hurdle.

2 Points win 14/1 hill/betfair

½ Point win 33/1 NRNB Stayers 365

3:00 Chelt

No matter where you look the form of Jarvey’s Plate is top class. He was beaten just by a grade 1 winner, horses he has beaten have won since. He should be fairly short here and 3/1 seems great value.

2 Points win 3/1 paddy/sky/vc/

Tyestes Day

24 Thursday Jan 2019

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

≈ Comments Off on Tyestes Day

3:00 Gowran

Valseur Lido is a pick of mine for the national after a very good run last year with a big burden. He isn’t even in the betting for this year’s one so maybe he will be trying here. He has hardly run over 3 miles since his grade 1 days and I think he will get competitive today. Its not out of the question he is the classiest horse in this field and of this mark he is great value

1 Point EW Ladbrokes 33/1 5 places 28/1 Betfair, and also 6 places ast 25/1 with paddy and sky.

1:50 Gowran

Mala Beach seems interesting here at a huge price. He has a great record around here and although he is after along layoff 40/1 makes it worthwhile. .

1 Point EW 40/1 Generally

Tyestes Day

24 Thursday Jan 2019

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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3:00 Gowran

Valseur Lido is a pick of mine for the national after a very good run last year with a big burden. He isn’t even in the betting for this year’s one so maybe he will be trying here. He has hardly run over 3 miles since his grade 1 days and I think he will get competitive today. Its not out of the question he is the classiest horse in this field and of this mark he is great value

1 Point EW Ladbrokes 33/1 5 places 28/1 Betfair, and also 6 places ast 25/1 with paddy and sky.

Long Shot Saturday

19 Saturday Jan 2019

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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Aidan O’Hara‏ @LongShotValue now

Ascot 3:00

Flying Angel looks to have a decent shot here at a big price with some good course form. He steps back in trip and that should help. With the 4 places still on offer here in a lot of places 18/1 looks value

1 Point EW 18/1 4 places lads/sky and more

@haydockraces

3:45 Dicosimo is one I’ve fancied to do something this year, and this softer ground 2 miles should be ideal. He is off a good mark and wont be far away here 9/1 is value

1 Point win 9/1 sky/vc 8/1 elsewhere

Ryanair Ante-Post

17 Thursday Jan 2019

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

≈ 1 Comment

Ryanair Chase

The top of the market for this race is mad at the moment with most of them not showing up here for this race. Monalee and Politologue look the most likely favs on the day. I’ve had Coney Island in mind for this since his very good run at Leopardstown over Christmas and I just can’t get over his price at the moment. He is a very lightly raced horse with bags of potential and in my view this is his trip. He really ran well in the Savills chase when a poor jump at the last and perhaps a lack of staying power cost him what looked a likely place. He has had a lovely prep with only 2 runs this year both with promise and considering his novice form I think he is the forgotten horse in this market. He hasn’t been entered in the Gold Cup, so hopefully this is his target. The trainer’s horses always run well at the festival and I’m sure he will get there in top shape. If he does he will go of about 10/1 or lower. 33/1 NRNB is great price with no risk.

2 Points EW 33/1 NRNB 365 ¼ place 1/5th place SKY

Long Shot Saturday

12 Saturday Jan 2019

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

≈ Leave a comment

No Time for Write up this morning

Fair 2:10 Tycoon Prince 14/1 1 pt win

Asc 2:40 Milrow 25/1 1 pt EW 5 places Paddy

War 3:35 Holly Bush Henry 12/1 1 PT win

Sunday Outsider

06 Sunday Jan 2019

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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1:50 @NaasRacecourse

Apart from his last run which seemed too bad to be true Magnium has the form the be in the picture here at a big price. He has been close to some of the best novices this year and ahead of a few of these already.

1 Point EW 33/1 Generally 1/4 place 365

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