Triumph Hurdle

Diakali really shouldn’t beat Our Conor today, but the way he put his head down behind him last time out gave me the impression that he would be better at Cheltenham. The hill and fast pace should suit him and he looks decent value at 14/1 today,. The ground could get soft by the time fo the race today and that should also suit him better.

1 Point win 14/1

Ante Post Hunters Chase

Chapoturgeon @ 5/1 I’m still happy with this bet and he is my nap of the meeting. Im hoping he can improve past Salsify today with a better ride. He has a touch of class and has been aimed at this all year.

2 Points win 5/1 Antepost (9/2 still available)

Gold Cup                                       

I’m not all that convinced that the new generation of horses are up to the mark this year. There doesn’t look to be a lot between them, and Bobs Worth who looks to be the best of them hasn’t had enough runs this year, and also looks too short. I think Long Run is sure to run better this year than last and the prospect of softer ground for the race will do nothing but improve his chances. He is 11/2 at the moment and that looks worthy of a 2 point bet

2 Points win 6/1 Paddy Power

Ante Post Grand Annual

French Opera looks the best of the Nicky Henderson Charges that he is sending out to win his father’s race. He is down to a very decent mark, off which he has been second in this race before. He is probably the class horse of the field and has been waiting for decent ground after a somewhat disappointing season so far with only 2 runs. I’m hoping he has been prepared for this race given his decent mark and 20/1 NRNB could look good value on the day.

1 Point win 20/1 NRNB Various Grand Annual

Grand Annual

Oiseau de Nuit, is one of my favourite horses, unsurprisingly as he won this for me 2 years ago at 50/1. He has a few bad runs of soft ground this year, but his seasonal opener of 1 lb lower than today was a great performance in winning easily by 10 lengths from Kumbeshwar. He looks to be underestimated here again ad is available at a huge looking 44 on betfair.

1 Point win 1 Point Place Betfair 44/9

2:05 County Hurdle

Hisaabaat stormed up the hill last year in a very good Triumph and even though he has been poor enough this year so far, the trainer would not be sending him here without expected improvement. He represents the class form in the race along with scope for improvement and 25/1 EW with 5 places looks great value.

1 Point EW 25/1 5 places Various

Ronaldo Des Mottes is a  gut feeling selection here. He came back after a long layoff on soft ground in Sandown to run a nice race and finish 4^th. Although he was poor next time out he does have the capability of getting involved here at a huge price, and if he can reproduce just failing to give Get me out of Here 7lbs a a couple of years ago in the Totesport Hurdle. He with a small risk at 40/1 ew.

1 Point EW 40/1 5 Places Various

4:40 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle 

Double Ross has been running well this year, has great course form and I think his run style is suited to this race. He looks to have a great chance of placing at least and 25/1 looks value. The Stable has hit form in no uncertain terms and he will go on softer ground if it rains today.

1 Point EW 25/1 Boyles BetVictor

Ma Filleule has some great form last time out beating Swincombe Flame, and looks to have been given a very decent chance by the handicapper. The step up n trip looks sure to suit and 10/1 looks value. I wouldn’t be surprised if she went of 3-4 points less than this.

1 Point win 10/1 Various

4:40 Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup

Frisco Depot sticks out here as a possible improver in this race. The better ground should help him and he looks to be on a decent mark. He looks from his last race or two if there is a big race in him. 16/1 with 5 places looks a bit of value.

Galaxy Rock has some very good course form and is still on a decent mark. He is very likely to have this race in mind, and will be helped by the better ground here. He has the assistance of a very decent amateur and that means a lot in this race. 14/1 looks Value.

1 Point EW Frisco Depot 16/1 5 places Frisco Depot

1 Point win 14/1 Galaxy Rock

4:00 Byrne Group Plate

I’ve been expecting Poquelin to get back to form this year when the ground improves and I’m hopeful that today is the day. He has been poor enough his last 2 runs, but he is down to a great mark considering he won a similar C&D race here of 15lbs higher 2 years ago. He also had a reasonable run first time out this year on decent ground at Ascot. 25/1 looks a great price and he is well capable of giving weight to a lot of these on this ground.

1 Point EW 25/1 Generally

5:15 Glenfarclas Handicap Chase (Cross Country)

I’ve selected 2 on monday for this and I havnt changed my mind.

I’m suspecting there could be a change here from the specialists in this race. Both Bostons Angel and Any Currency have easily the best Chase form of any of these and look to be well treated here. Bostons Angel will be ready to run today and has very good course and festival form in the past, including some decent form in similar races this year. Any Currency just looks exceptionally well treated on his top notch recent chase form, including a good 3^rd in the Bet365 Cup last year. I’m going with a win bet on both.

1 Point win Bostons Angel 11 Betfair

1 Point win Any Currency 14/1 generally

2:05 Pertemps Final

Captain Sunshine looks to have a nice profile for this race. He is just out of novice https://longshotvalue.wordpress.com/wp-admin/post.php?post=1285&action=editcompany where he won at Cheltenham, has run a very good race last time out and should improve for the decent ground here today. He is 20/1 with 5 places and that looks a bit of value.

1 Point EW 20/1 Generally

Ryanair Chase

Ghizao is a pure gut feeling selection for me. He will be much better on the good ground today and has looked a few times this year as if he might get back to form with better conditions. He stayed on nicely in his last few runs behind Captain Chris and Cur Card and if he can improve around here today he might outrun his 33/1 price.

1 Point EW 33/1 EW Betvictor

Coral Cup 4:00

Orsippus has a great record of running well in these big field handicaps and has in fact finished 3rd in this race 2 years ago off 2 lbs higher. He had a break lately and came back with a decent run behind Pedlers Cross. He is 50/1 with Coral which looks great value given his consistancy and the 5 places offered. He would probably be shorter if the ground was a bit better but its not a total bog.

1 Point EW 50/1 Coral 5 places

I’m going with 2 more big prices in the Coral Cup. Crack Away Jack looks to be getting back into form and looks to have been given a half decent chance by the handicapper despite have near top weight. He could well improce considerable on the decent ground today and may well be very difficult to knock out of the places at a decent looking 33/1. The other I’m going for is Big Easy at a very big looking 50/1. He has some decent course form hasn’t had a hard season. Last time out here he looked to be travelling well until a poor jump 3 out. He was poor last time on heavy ground and that is the reason for his big price. He looks to have a bit of potential and a nice weight.

½ Point EW Crack Away Jack Various 33/1 5 places

½ Point EW Big Easy 50/1 EW Coral 5 places

4:40 Fred Winter

Ruacana looks to have been underestimated here. He has the best form in the race with his very decent looking 3^rd behind Our Conor in Leopardstown and is also a Grade 1 winner in the UK. His mark for this race doesn’t appear to be too bad and he is a very decent price as he appears to be the stable second string here. I doubt there is much between him and Bordini here and the additional 3lbs that he will get from his claimer jockey won’t go astray. Im surprised he is 20/1 and that’s easily worth an EW Bet

1 Point EW 20/1 Various

I also have a 2 Point Ante post bet on Boston Bob at 7/1 in the RSA , which looks a decent bet now that Dynaste isn’t running.

None of the ante post bets came off with Dodging Bullets, and Binocular not running up to scratch and Fruity O Rooney running well to be 5th after some poor jumping. The 2 picks in the cross country are postponed until Thursday.

Thankfully Tullamore Due ran a great race to be 4th at decent odds of 33/1 for a decent profit of 7.25 points.

Johns Spirit ran well, but jumped very poorly. He still stayed on strongly to 6th and will be one to watch on a flatter track of this mark.

It makes for a 2.25 points profit which is getting out of jail.

One of my Antepost Bets Dodging Bullets @ 14/1 runs in the Supreme tomorrow, and id imagine he won’t be suited by the ground but that price is still nice Value.

I also have a nice Antepost bet at 14/1 on Fruity O’Rooney put up last week that now looks a great bet and he should have a great chance in the JLT.

5:15  Rewards4Racing Novices Handicap Chase

Johns Spirit might have disappointed here last time out but, the form of his second at Sandown behind Katenko getting only 3lbs reads exceptionally well in the context of this Novice Handicap Race. He is still on that mark and if he can reproduce that form here he is vastly overpriced at 20/1.

1Point EW 20/1 Stan James / Skybet & Betfair

2:40 JLT Specialty Handicap Chase

Tullamore Dew has been running well this year, but has dropped to an enticing mark here, especially considering his last run here in a very good Murphy Group Race here over a shorter trip. He stayed up the hill is excellent fashion and a repeat of that performance which came on heavy ground would give him a great chance of getting into the first 5 here. 33/1 with 5 places seems great value.

1 Point EW 33/1 5 Places Generally

4:00 Glenfarclas Handicap Chase (Cross Country)

I’m suspecting there could be a change here from the specialists in this race. Both Bostons Angel and Any Currency have easily the best Chase form of any of these and look to be well treated here. Bostons Angel will be ready to run today and has very good course and festival form in the past, including some decent form in similar races this year. Any Currency just looks exceptionally well treated on his top notch recent chase form, including a good 3^rd in the Bet365 Cup last year. I’m going with a win bet on both.

1 Point win Bostons Angel 11 Betfair

1Point win Any Currency 14/1 generally

First in the Queue, was a non-runner, so it was all down to Barizan yesterday. He ran a superb race in ground conditions that wouldn’t have suited to finish 4th, for a 3 Point profit overall. To me he looks a long way well in on his current mark if he finds good ground shortly and it’s only a matter of waiting for the opportunity.

3:15 Sandown

Barizan is one of my favourite horses in training, and he appears to be getting back to form judging by his last run. He is off a great mark here on his best form and there isn’t any way i can look at this race without selecting him. The Soft ground is a pity but with a light weight he stands a decent chance on never seeing another horse..

1 pt EW 22/1 5 Places Paddy Power

I’m also going with the outsider of the field for a min bet. First in the Queue has enough decent runs to suggest a decent possibility of placing, and although its more gut feeling than anything here I wouldn’t be surprised if he grabbed a place at a huge price. He was a good 2^nd to Petit Robin who has gone up 18 lbs since at Ascot and a repeat of that run might give him a small shout.

½ Point win 130 Betfair 1 Point Place 15

One of my favourite horses is entered here on Saturday, and I’m hopeful after a win last time out on unsuitable soft ground, that conditions will be right for him to have a great chance here. Barizan will likely try to win it from the front and if he is to get into any of the festival handicaps he certainly needs the penalty he would get for winning this. Fingers crossed he blazes a trail from the start and the ground stays Good. 25/1 looks a bit of value and worthy of a small bet.

1 Point win Barizan 25/1 Skybet

My plan of backing both of the Aidan O’Brien runners at what looked decent odds work out when Shield won despite still looking very green in the finish. He can only improve for that run and with Joseph in the Saddle at the festival I’m hopeful for further improvement.

Leopardstown 2:40

Mossley should be better on the better ground here today than what he ran on last time. His win 2 runs ago at thurles looked decent, and despite this trip being shot of his best 16/1 looks a great EW price as there are a number of questions about a lot of those ahead of him in the betting

1 Point EW 16/1 Paddy Power and others

Leopardstown 5:10

I’m going to go with a bet on both Aidan O’Brien Horses here as they looked likely enough improvers after their somewhat tender rides last time out on Heavy Ground. The going today will be far more suitable and given the trainers to give a fairly easy first runs on the flat I think there is every chance of a lot of improvement. They are 8/1 and 9/1 and a point on each look the bet.

1 Point win Shield 9/1 Paddy Power 1 Point Win Egyptian Warrior 8/1 Blue Square