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LongshotValue

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Author Archives: longshotvalue

Chelenham Day 1 Last Minute

16 Friday Nov 2012

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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I like thelook of Total Excitement, at a huge price in the 3:35. He has run well last year in a similiar race of a much higher mark and despite poorer form over fences lately, he may well be at his best here.

1 Point win 1 Point Place Betfair 70/10

 

Im also going for BattleCry at a big price in the last , he has great course form, and should be ready for a good performance today after a poor enough looking seasonal return. He does have a good record in these types of races and looks value at 50/11 on betfair

1 Point win 1 Point Place Betfair 50 win / 11 place

Long Shot Saturday

10 Saturday Nov 2012

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

≈ 1 Comment

3:35 Wincanton

A Straight forward and obvious selection here in Diamond Harry, he goes well fresh has come down to far in the handicap after obviously having problems last year and this race looks a weak enough affair with even greater question marks about the rest of the field. 17/2 looks too big

2 Points win 17/2 StanJames

2:50 Wincanton

Having a small bet of the big outsider herein Escort’men. He has proved himself of this mark over hurdles having won before and although he was a disappointment over fences I’m hoping that the condition of this race will suit him. The Top weight has a lot to do and I’m not totally convinced about Prospect Wells, given all that the 33/1 available about my selection looks decent value.

1 Point win 33/1 Various

2:35 Doncaster

Hillview Boy not for the first time this season will be one of my selections here. His last run looked an improvement and although he faded in the finish he had a huge amount of work to do to come from the back of the field, and it’s somewhat understandable that he faded after that effort. He is well handicapped on his best form and the slightly better ground should help him stay the trip here. 40/1 with 5 places in a few firms look a decent bit of value

1 Point EW 40/1 Paddy Power/Skybet/365  5 Places

I’m also going with a min bet for gut feeling selection Darley Sun, he looks to have it all to do stepping back in trip but is on a nice mark and Buick might just be able to use his proven staying ability here. This race can be a bit of a grind and he has had very little racing which can only be in his favour.

½ Point win 60 Betfair

3:10 Doncaster

The Cheka looks a bit of a forgotten horse here, he has won over C&D in a similar race earlier this year, and although he has put in a few poorer runs this year overall he has been running right up to his mark. 14/1 with StanJames look over generous and easily worth a bet. There are a few that could improve to take this but haven’t proven anything yet .

2 Points win 14/1 Stan James

Melbourne Cup

05 Monday Nov 2012

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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My main hope for this Lost in the Moment hasn’t got in unfortunately so I’m going to so with a few big outsiders.

Both Bart Cummins big outsiders have the look of ones that have been prepared for this race and have some decent form in the past. Precedence & Sanagas are a few points too big from a trainer with a great record. Sanagas had a very decent record in the states and didn’t get the best of runs in the Caulfield Cup. Precedence may struggle to stay but could well be ridden differently this time and is sure to be ready for this race.

I’m also going with a bet on Cavalryman , he looks treated well enough given his best form and has been better this year stepped up in trip. He is closely matched with my original selection and 34 on Betfair looks a decent bit of value

½ Point win all 3 Betfair

Precedence 160, Sanagas 55, Cavalryman 34

Monday 14:40 Kempton

05 Monday Nov 2012

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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Beyond looks dangerous here considering he was 3rd in this last year of a 5lbs higher mark. Although he has been somewhat of a disappointment over hurdles this trip will suit him and his light weight could make him very difficult to catch if he blasts out in front as usual. I’m surprised he is 14.5 on Betfair and had expected him to be shorter.

2 Points win 14.5 Betfair

Long Shot Saturday

27 Saturday Oct 2012

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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On holidays this week so only a few very quick selection for today

Doncaster 2:30 Mirza. Step back to 5 Furlong s and down a couple of pounds might just give him a small chance

½ Point win 20/1 various

Moorhouse Lad Shot in the dark gut feeling at a huge price.

½ Point EW 50/1 Various

Aintree 3:30 Gauvain is always better first time out and a lot of his form last year would give him in my view a favorite’s chance here so the 7/1 currently available looks very generous. He seems to me to be the most likely winner.

2 Points win 7/1 Various

Doncaster 2:00 Hillview Boy, seem to have conditions in his favour today and 24 on betfair looks a bit of value.

½ Point win 24 Betfair

Tepmokea, gut feeling on best form on softer ground should have a tiny squeek

½ Point win 95 Betfair

Doncaster 4:45 Monsieur Chevalier , can possibly get back to a bit of form here after having only 1 run this year. Worth a shot at 17 on betfair.

½ Point win 17 Betfair

Monday 5:20 Pontefract

22 Monday Oct 2012

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

≈ 3 Comments

Damika is one I’ve backed a few times this year without success, but I feel the soft ground 5 Furlongs here might just put him in with a great chance of staying in front. He has been running well without last home over 6 Furlongs on a few occasions, and although he is shouldered here with top weight he looks to have a much better than 16/1 chance here and is worth a small bet

½ Point win 16/1 Paddy Power

Long Shot Saturday

20 Saturday Oct 2012

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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3:40 Cheltenham

Exmoor Ranger sticks out for me as being overpriced in this race. He is proven of this mark has pleny of very good course form and has an excellent record fresh, so today may be the best time to have a bet at a decent price on this substandard renewal of this race. His jumping can be poor enough but whenever he does stay up he is generally very competitive and had a few very decent runs last year including 3rd in the Fluke Walwyn at the festival of this mark. 29 win on Betfair looks a  good few points too big.

I’m also going to have a small saver on Knockara Beau as well, as on his day he is well capable of running a big race here given his course form, and I’d be jacking myself if he wins this of a big looking 20/1 without having a small bet.

1 Point win Exmoor Ranger 29 Betfair

½ Point win Knockara Beau 23 Betfair

2:30 Cheltenham

Gilbarry has been a very disappointing horse since his novice days and as a result is down to a career low chasing mark of 130, which if he can recover some sparkle might just give him a small chance at a big price in this competitive looking race. He is still a young horse with hopefully plenty of potential and has won before on season reappearance. 40 on Betfair is well worth what is possibly a risky bet.

1 Point win Gilbarry 40

1:45 Ascot

Rite Of Passage has a lot to do on the face of it with so little racing since his gold cup win but, he is sure to go on the ground and his trainer is well capable of getting him ready for this with no prep run. His Gold cup win was one of the better ones in recent years and 9/1 in a few places looks a bit of value

1 Point win 9/1 Various

2:50 Catterick

Shoshoni Wind has proven form on soft ground, is well capable of running of a mark of 90 and has blinkers on and Philip Makin back on today. That’s enough signs for me to have a small bet in case she is going to get back to form here. 33/1 in a few places looks value

1Point win 33/1 Bet365/Coral/ Boyles

2:55 Ascot

I’m going to have a small min bet of Vow here, as there is not a lot between the fillies herea dn although she was poor at Ascot and had a break, if her last run has put her right she is too big a price here at 20/1 . Has a little bit of form on soft.

½ Point win 20/1 VCbet

Wed 15:15 Nottingham

17 Wednesday Oct 2012

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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I’m going to go with a huge price here for a min bet in Hung Parliament.His last run on Firm ground obviously didn’t suit this listed soft ground winner and he hasn’t been on the course since then. His first run this year of a mark 12 lbs higher when a running on 5th over a mile a lingfield in a class 2 handicap might just give him a tiny squeak here. He is a huge 290 on betfair and I’m going to have a min bet on him

½ Point win 290 ½ Point place 17 Betfair 1234

Saturday Report

15 Monday Oct 2012

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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Blue Bajan ran by far the best of my 3 big outsiders in the Cesarewitch, finishing in 6th just 1 outside the placing’s . He was my biggest bet in the race 40/1 EW 5 places, so close but no cigar. Mirza looked to be in with a shout but weakened in the last ½ Furlong. Best run by a long way was Mostly Bob just failing to close in on the winner at an advised price of 46 on betfair. Unfortunately he was advised as win only but still roll on NH Season.

Monday 14:40 Musselburgh

15 Monday Oct 2012

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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Klynch looks the wrong price here given his last run, where he ran well from the wrong side of the track, in what was probably a better race than this. He is back down to a mark he has won of before and goes on any ground so should have an excellent chance here today. 21 on Betfair is a lot higher than what i expected and is worth a bet.

1 Point win 21 Betfair

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