I’ve updated the Challenge and now things are heating up with Pricewise having 3 winners this Saturday, there is only 1 between us on Advised prices. But showing how difficult it is getting on at the Pricewise prices there is still 50pts between us on Betfair SP prices

https://longshotvalue.com/longshotvalue-v-pricewise/

William Hill Ayr Silver Cup

I’m happy enough with the 1 Point win on Grissom at 33/1 previously advised and I’m going to supplement that in this race with a bet on what looks one of the more progressive horses in the race in Lightning Cloud. He had been steadily getting better until his last run at Ascot and has a very good 5^th in the Victoria Cup of 2lbs more than this on soft ground. That run was after a break and he has had a break again since Ascot which should freshen him up nicely for this race.

1 Point win Betfair 19

William Hill Ayr Gold Cup

The Cheka’s form on soft ground this year is right out of the top drawer with a 2nd and 3^rd in 2 Groups 1s. He is clearly much better on soft and as hard as I’ve looked I can’t find anything with anyway near that form in this race. Most of the main competition for him is going to come near the top of the weights and really he looks well capable of giving a few pounds to these. If he runs to form he stands a great chance even of this mark and he looks overpriced at 19 on Betfair

1 Point win Betfair 19    

Newmarket 3:55

Riptide looks a bit of value here stepping back up in trip from his last 2 runs. He ran a very decent race in the Queen Alexandra at Ascot considering the conditions of the race, and if he can get near to that form here he’ll have a decent shout at a big looking 27 on Betfair. He is certain to be staying on at the end and could be a nice horse for EW multiples.

1 Point win 27 Betfair

Rothesay Chancer looks worth a min bet at a decent price here as he is one of the few in the field to have decent form on heavy ground. He was poor last time out but that was after a break and if that has got him right, he may be up to these conditions of this reduced mark. Min Bet for fun..

½ Point win Betfair 27
Ran very well – Placed in 4th, only one of the high drawn horses to feature at all ..

Gold Cup

Jonny Mudball sticks out for me at the prices in this race. He was 5^th 2 years ago of a 2lbs higher mark. He has had very little racing since and really hadn’t looked his best in his few runs this year. On his last run he did show a bit of speed but ran out of steam in the last furlong, if that run has got him right for presumably his main target then he won’t be without a chance and a huge price. He certainly has the capability on his past form and although he has no form on heavy ground he’s easily worth a small bet.

½ Point win 50 Betfair

NON RUNNER

Silver Cup

Grissom is one I’ve followed in his last few runs, bit I think he may have his ideal conditions here. He walked away with a heavy ground Scottish Steward’s Cup earlier this year of only 2 lbs. higher, and has had what I thought was a few unlucky runs lately, but it seems more likely that he may be targeted at this race and he will be one of the few in the race that has proven heavy ground form. He is currently 33/1 with boyles Ladbrokes and a few others and that’s worth a bet.

1 Point win 33/1 Boyles/Ladbrokes
Bronze Cup

Parisian Pyramid is a better horse on soft ground and has dropped to a very enticing mark. I thought his last run at Ripon looked  a bit of a return to form, and if he can kick on from that to anywhere near his 2 good runs on soft ground earlier this year, his current price of 40/1 with Sky bet will look huge tomorrow.

½ Point EW 40/1 Skybet

NON RUNNER

I’m Going to give Hillview Boy another chance here of an ever decreasing mark. He is surly going to collect shortly. He didn’t get the best of runs last time and was awkward in the finish but still ran a eye-catching enough race. He was backed that day and I can see him being backed again tomorrow. He will handle he ground here no problem and just looks overpriced at 12/1. He is deserted by Graham Lee but that is what probably makes him value.

1 Point win 12/1 Bet365 and others

Meeting Abandoned

I’ve updated the Figures, and although i had a bad enough week, and a particularly poor Saturday, the score stands at Pricewise -11. Longshotvalue +36.

In my view at the moment Pricewise is picking far too many favourite’s in these big Saturday handicaps and that just can’t yield a profit..

My ROI isn’t great to be honest, but I’d be happy to end the flat season in profit and roll on the NH season..

Portland Handicap Doncaster 3:00

I’m going to add another 1 point win on Captain Dunne at the available odds of 60 on Betfair, in additional to the ½ Point EW already advised at 33/1

https://longshotvalue.com/2012/09/13/saturday-portland-handicap-early-bet/

1 Point win 60 Betfair Captain Dunne

I’m also going for another big priced one in Fratellino, he has been running very well lately in similar races to this, apart from his last run and there has been what looks, an overreaction to that run here. Any return to his earlier form would make his current price of 40/1 for 5 places look value.

1 Point EW 40/1 Fratellino Skybet 5 places

1:50 Doncaster

I’m going for Mia’s Boy, he has loads of very good course form, has had a nice break and is down to what looks a very workable mark of 92. He has pleny of good performance last year of higher marks and if the break has put him right for this he looks well overpriced at 14/1

1 Point win Mia’s Boy 14/1 Coral

Chester 1:40

Bertoliver won this race of 6 lbs. higher last year after a similar stretch of poor runs. In general he bangs one in every year mixed between a load of poor runs and hopefully this race is his turn again. He is drawn in the middle which is probably fine and 16/1 looks a few points too big.

1 Point win 16/1 Various

Poor week, after a great Saturday.

White Frost just lost out in 2nd

Marine Commando ran well enough, but was probably drawn on the wrong side, i think he will be ready for a repeat win in a week or so.

Noble Storm continued his bad form

Dickie’s Lad, was very poor after being backed heavily.

Today Blue Bajan wasn’t helped by the slow run race and couldn’t get in a blow in the sprint in the end.

Webbow, was just out of the places in 5th and ran well, hell surely be winning soon..

Saturday 3:00 Doncaster

I’ve had a look at the Portland a few times this week, and from the start Captain Dunne has stood out for me. He is down to mark he can work off, had a nice pipe opener a couple of weeks ago, and usually takes a run to get right. He hasn’t had a lot of racing this year which is an advantage at this time of the year and certainly has the capability of winning this at a very decent price.

½ Point EW Coral 33/1

Doncaster 4:05

Maybe I’m being over simplistic but I can’t see how Webbow is as big a price as he is for this race. He is proven of this mark over this trip and on this course and had a very good run last time out in a much better race than this. The slightly shorter trip here will help and not much more needed to justify odds of 16/1 currently with Paddy Power. I’m also going to have a min bet on Imperial Djay at a huge price on Betfair just in case he is let loose tomorrow. He is below his last winning mark and I’d be raging not to have had a min bet at the huge price of 55 currently on Betfair.

1 Point win Webbow 16/1 Paddy Power

½ Point win Imperial Djay  55 Betfair

Doncaster 1:50

Blue Bajan is one I’ve selected on his last few runs and he did nothing on his last run that would stop me going with him again here. He got no sort of passage at all and ran a very good race considering to be 4^th, behind the hot Fav here. He is 6lbs better off with Sir Graham Wade now and although he will be a difficult nut to crack as he too had a poor passage and still won that race, I can’t let him go off here at 6 times the price.

1 Point win 12/1 Paddy Power

As Both Horses look overpriced and seems to have superb chances of placing I’m going to go for an additional Double.

½ Point EW Double with Paddy Power at 16/1 & 12/1 (Webbow & Blue Bajan)