3:55 Galway

Free World has long been on a slide down the handicap, but he did show a bit of spark at Cheltenham until he fell a few out when travelling well. He has come into this decent race of a break since he pulled up after a mistake at Aintree, and has in the past performed well after similar breaks. He doesn’t need to be anyway near his best to have a chance here in what looks a poor enough race for the money. There would be a question mark over the ground but he has run well on soft before. He’s worth a small bet at the current 25/1.

1 Point win 25/1 Boyles

15:40 Chester

Castles In The Air gave me the impression last time out in one of the big Ascot Handicaps that he may be about to turn a corner and come back to form. He is down to a workable mark after competing reasonably in some top handicaps and has an excellent 3lbs claimer on with the vital inside draw. He is stepping up in trip but he is worth the risk at his current price of 14/1 with the draw in his favour here.

1 Point win 14/1 Various

2:40 Deauville

Marchand D’or is one that has done me a favour being underestimated a few times in the past. He is getting on a bit now but my gut feeling is that this race is nowhere near as good as last years, when he finished well in 3^rd. Obviously Moonlight Cloud looks almost unbeatable here and I would love a market without the fav but on this course in these conditions 23 on Betfair about my selection is just wrong. He is very likely to place and had a nice enough season opener last time out when finishing well to take 3^rd behind Lockwood, when possibly the ground wasn’t soft enough.

½ pt win 23 1.5 Point place 4 Betfair

One of those days today when it could have been so much better but a very tidy profit all the same. Great run from El Viento  to scrape into 5^th to make the EW bet at 40/1 and just so close with Imperial Guest who went down by a nose in the Stewards Cup. I’ve been following him for a while and expecting him to take one of these but gutted to be so close.

Im adding and additional 1/2 Point EW on my selection El Viento in the Stewarts Sprint as he has gone out to 40/1 with 5 places and i still think he is great value..

Stewarts Cup

Macs Power has more than likely had this race in mind since his very good 3^rd in it last year. He looked last time as if he was about to come to hand, and the fact that he is now 3lbs lower than last year has to give him a superb chance here. He is drawn near the middle in 16 and that should be more or less ideal. It’s not like me to go for one as short as he in in this type of race but, he looks to have a few pounds in hand here and I’ll take the 12/1 available now as in my book he is the favourite.. I’m also going for Imperial Guest at a big price as in that same race he was 3^rd behind Macs Power but really was travelling well and didn’t get the best of rides. He is such a consistent horse that the 5places and 33/1 available looks great value. He has been very good with a few pounds more for the last year or two and one of these days it will all fall right for him and hell win one of these big Saturday handicaps yet.

1 Point win Macs Power 12/1 Tote/Betfred/Will Hill

½ Point EW Imperial Guest 33/1 5 places

Stewards’ Sprint Handicap 

El Viento looks the type to perform well here as he is relatively unexposed compared to most of the field.  He had a nice run at Newmarket a few runs ago that caught the eye, and has had a break since along with a run hopefully to get him right. He has run well in a few big field handicaps before as a 3yo and if he can improve here he might just have a few pounds in hand of the handicapper. 28/1 with 5 places in VCbet and Stanjames looks a decent price. He is drawn in the centre which should be ideal..

½ Point EW 28/1 VcBet & Stanjames

Additional ½ Point EW 40/1 5 Places Bet365

2:40 Goodwood

Sometimes it pays to keep it simple and Petara Bay is a case in point. He won this race last year of only 2 lbs lower, with a very similar preparation and he looks possibly the most likely winner again. It’s a certainty that he has been prepared for this race and I’m surprised he is not in the top 2-3 in the market. The Fav here looks way too short for what he has done, and the current 15 on betfair about my election can’t last.

2 Points win 15 Betfair

15:35 Thirsk

Extraterrestrial looks completely the wrong price here. He was a good fast finishing 6^th in the Thirst Hunt cup, has a very good course record with 2 wins, and is now of a mark he should certainly be competitive with. He is currently 29 win 6.2 place on Betfair, too me he looks like more of a 7/4 shot to place here. He is drawn low but it’s hard to know where the advantage is, although he is drawn beside the Favourite Mont Ras, which can’t be bad. I’m going to weight the bet towards placing as in fairness he hasn’t a great win record.

½ Point win 29 Betfair  1.5 Points place Betfair 6.2

Great week this week with Confessor and Ortensia both winning and Mabait coming second at a huge price. Pricewise also had a fairly spectular week with 3 big priced winners. Pricewise is now nearly back to even.

The Scores stand at Pricewise -5.65 Longshot Value +43.15

I’m going to have speculative min bet on Clarkey at a huge price here on Betfair. He suddenly came to form last year to win a Soft Ground Chase at Listowel last year after a series of poor runs. He has similarly done nothing this year but could be worth a min bet in case he is supported here. He has plenty of decent form in the past and loads of poor runs as well so his series on duck eggs this year isn’t a concern at his huge price.

 ½ Point win 75 on Betfair

Pricewise had 2 big winners at goodwood so far one at 28/1 and another at 14/1, getting him back nearer to profit. Thankfully The Confessor winning advised at 24 keeps us ahead so far.

Mabait is a gut feeling selection for me here. He ran well 3 starts ago at Chester and again ran an ok race in the Royal Hunt Cup at Ascot, when probably too far back. He travelled well last time at Newmarket but didn’t get home in the ground. The 1 mile trip on good ground may be just about right for him and I think he may be on the way back to some kind of form. He has a 7lbs claimer on today and will be in here with a very light weight.  We will know out fate early as if he gets away decently he should finish the race well. He’s worth a small min bet at 40/8 on Betfair

½ Point win ½ Point place Betfair 40/8

Ortensia is a relatively straight forward selection here. She is a good bit clear of anything in this race on form. Her last run in the July Cup was good considering the ground was very soft. I think on good ground here she should be a very strong favourite and I’m having a lot of difficulty coming up with any alternatives, as the field seems full of horses of a lower class or ones that aren’t on form. I would be slightly concerned that possibly Spirit Quartz could start his threatened run to top class here but he doesn’t seem as good value as the Aussie here, altough  ill have small saver just in case.

2 Points Ortensia win 7/1 Bet365/Coral

½ Point win Spirit Quartz 12/1 Various

The Confessor is a proven horse of this mark in the last year or two. He has run well in some of the better 7 Furlong handicaps of higher marks than he has tomorrow, and if he can improve for his last poor enough run he should be right there with a chance tomorrow at a big looking 24 on Betfair. Any easing of the ground shouldn’t be any disadvantage and he is more of a 14/1 shot here.

1 Point win Betfair 24

Deal Done is one that I have selected a few times which some decent results. He is on a long enough loosing run but I think the conditions tomorrow could suit him. He was a good 6^th in the Irish National this year when he travelled really well but just couldn’t see it out. The 2m 6f trip here on could be ideal for him and I think as well as he travels 25/1 with 5 places on Bet365 is excellent value. He is still only an 8yo and should have some improvement in him.

1 point ew 25/1 Bet365 5 Places