Mr David is one I’ve selected a few times and he really hasn’t done me any favours, but today he has the ground he needs, has really dropped in class, along with a significant drop in handicap mark after a few poor runs on softer ground. He has first time blinkers on today and after being supported last time out I’m hopeful that he is showing something at home that can give him a decent chance in this weak looking race.  9.2 on Betfair looks a bit of value considering the race.

2 Points win 9.2 Betfair

Galway 5:35

Captainofthefleet is an interesting type in this race. He had very decent 2yo form, and although he has obviously had his troubles since (as he hasn’t been seen that much for a 5yo), he caught the eye last time out at the Curragh over 12 Furlongs as potential improver with a step up in trip and perhaps better ground. A mark of 78 given a small bit of improvement and a half decent experienced jockey on board would make the 40/1 about him look big and in my view he doesn’t deserve to be the outsider of the field here.

1pt EW 40/1 Boyles

Damika was a selection of mine last week and ran an eye-catching race when seemingly having a good bit left to give after a troubled passage. He is down a further 1lbs for that run and looks to be obviously coming into form. 12/1 in Paddy Power is well worth a bet.

2 Points win 12/1 Paddy Power

Ascot 2:55

Fitz Flyer has had a couple of decent runs this year. He was 5^th on his seasonal debut at Doncaster and latest an eye-catching 10^th in the Epson Dash when getting far from a perfect passage and being noticeably eased once his chance was gone. That last performance put him on my radar for a decent performance in similar conditions at possibly a decent price. He is down another 3lbs for that Dash performance and that has to put him in with a decent shout here. He has in the past been rated at over 100 and his current mark of 90 looks exploitable. He is 65 on Betfair and that certainly looks value.

1 Point win 1 Point Place Betfair 65/9.6

York 2:35

Able Master is one I’ve been following this year with a few points profit and I think the fact the K Fallon is on board is a significant factor today. He is a horse with plenty of ability who just doesn’t bother to show it in a lot of his races. Hopefully Fallon can galvanise him early in the race as he is more or less certain to finish the race well. 14/1 with Ladbrokes looks bit of value with him being bottom of the weights.

1 Point win 14/1 Ladbrokes / Coral

Newmarket 2:45

Demolition looks to have everything in his favour here. He looks to be coming back to form a bit judging by his recent runs. 10 Furlong’s is his best trip and good ground looks a big positive when looking back on his career. Looking at the rest of the field nothing else really stands out and the 12/1 available looks great value.

2 Points win 12/1 Coral Betfred

York 4:50

Deauville Flyer again is one that looks to have conditions in his favour today. He has a very decent course record and most of his good form is on fast ground over 16 furlongs. This is his first run over that trip this year and it is significant when combined with his preference for york. This looks a tight enough race without any standouts and the selection looks to be easily the best value at the 18/1 on Paddy Power and a few others.

1 Point win 18/1 Paddy Power/Blue Square/Will Hill

3:05 Newcastle

Al Muheer is another I’ve been following for a while; he ran a very decent race last week at Ascot in a much better race than this. He came from the back to finish well but could never really get near the leaders. He looks to be in decent form at the moment and it’s no surprise to see him out again quickly. This class 3 handicap is probably more his level at the moment and with the 5lbs claimer on he has a very decent mark here. 10.5 on Betfair looks a bit of value.

1 Point win 10.5 Betfair

York 3:45

Last Bid will be up against it somewhat as a 3yo here, but he has an exceptional course record and has really only had poor runs when on softer ground. He could easily improve significantly back at york on fast ground. He had a very good 2^nd in Listed race as a 2yo and again was second here in a handicap earlier this year, when looking like the step up to 6 furlongs would suit him. I’m having trouble finding any value in this race and a small bet at a big price should be worthwhile.

½ point win 28/1 Paddy Power

Rowe Park is a risky enough bet given his recent form but when i look back this year his second last run back of a break was in fact decent enough given how the form of the race has turns out. He is obviously not a patch on what he was but he wouldn’t need to be to have a small chance here. He won a similar race here 2 years ago of a 20lbs higher mark, and although it looked very poor last time out he did get left at the start. He also has looked a bit uninterested in the last year and the application of blinkers here might just waken him up. At his current price on Betfair of 50 hes worth a small shot.

½ Point win ½ Point win Place Betfair 50/10.5

Eland Ally is a relatively unexposed horse compared to the rest of this field, and has a few very decent runs last year given his handicap rating of only 79.  He had a superb 2^nd in a similar race at Doncaster at the end of last year off 2lbs higher, and although he had a few poor runs since, including his first run back this year last time out, he did give the impression that he will improve for that run. He clearly has a very decent shot of that mark if back to form and is worth a small risk at a huge 50 on Betfair. There is a step up in trip to think about but the way he travelled in that Doncaster race and finished it would seem to be an advantage.

1 Point win 50 Betfair

Bertoliver interests me in this race at a good price. His last run can be forgotten about as the ground wouldn’t have suited. He has always seems to put in a stinker before a win, when I look back on his form and of a career low mark, he could easily be hard to catch here. He is 2lbs lower than his last win in September in Chester, and if he get away may be hard to peg back on this fast 5furlngs.

1 Point win 14/1 BetVictor, Boyles, Will Hill

In a similar vein to Slade Power last week, I think Katla should be a very strong favourite for this race. She won it last year, and really came back to form last time in a much stronger race than thin when a fast finishing 3^rd to Definightly and Judge & Jury. The step up to 6 Furlongs will suit and I think she is overpriced, as After is again under-priced and really should be too slow to take a hand in the finish here. There does appear to be a gap to the rest of the field and 11/4 looks generous. In my eyes she is more of a 7/4 shot.

3 Points win 11/4 Various

Great result yesterday with a win for Taajub at 20/1 and Fratellino 3rd Placed at 40/1

Ascot 17:05

Taajub has been running well lately at Epson, particularly a very good 4^th in the Dash Handicap. He didn’t appear to like the step up to 6 last time and I think the step back to 5 furlong’s here should be ideal. He wouldnt need to do any more than he has already been doing this year to have a very decent shot here and the 21 available on Betfair looks at least 5-6 points too big. He is ideally drawn near the centre.

1 Point win 21 Betfair

Fratellino hasn’t had the best of luck in the last while, but has plenty of very decent runs of this mark or higher. He has had a small break since the beginning of june and a break has helped him in the past. His form figures lately look poor enough but in fairness he was in a very good listed race last time where he was rated 10lbs lower than everything else and got hampered at the start of a York handicap before that. He has won a listed race this year on the AW, and the form of that race has worked out very well since. 40/1 with William Hill looks far too big and worthy of a decent bet EW.

1pts EW 40/1 William Hill