• 100/1 Real Longshots
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  • Betting History Overall Total 840 Point Profit
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  • 2016 Bets +40.5 Advised
  • Cheltenham Festival Huge Priced winner’s since 2010
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LongshotValue

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LongshotValue

Author Archives: longshotvalue

Friday/Saturday Report

22 Sunday Jul 2012

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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Friday was unlucky enough with Imperial Guest not getting the best of rides when finishing in 3rd full of running after getting stuck behind a wall of horses at the wrong time. Tagula Night ran a great race at a huge price to be placed.

Saturday Qulinton did come back to form as I thought he would but found 2 other too good to finish in 3rd, after travelling well throughout. Damika was again very unlucky in running getting stopped at the wrong time, but wouldn’t have beaten the good winner of that sprint. He is definatly one to watch soon. Unfortunately one of my most confident bets for a long time came unstuck with a very poor ride. St Nicholas Abbey was given far too much to do and finished like a train, when having to come from the back and wide. Joseph has in fairness been brilliant this year but it wasn’t his best to say the least. At least we got the first 3 right in the sum up of the race

15:55 Ascot

21 Saturday Jul 2012

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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15:55 Ascot

Bronze Prince won this race last year of a 5lbs lower mark than today, but he is still a relatively lightly raced horse and on looking back at last year’s race, he did win with a bit in hand having come from miles back to snatch it. He ran a decent race over c&d last time out on unsuitable ground. He’ll surly be ready to run for his life today and looks a huge price.

½ Point win Betfair 48

King George

21 Saturday Jul 2012

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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Although it looks a strong field i still can’t have anything other the Nathaniel ,St Nicholas Abbey or possibly Danedream winning. St Nicholas Abbey looks to have a hell of a lot in his favour here, with the drying ground. I don’t think he got the best ride or was at his best in this last year and the victor then Nathaniel has had a hard race only 2 weeks ago. Sea Moon was comprehensively beaten by my selection in the Breeders Cup last year and I can’t see him turning that around. Of the rest I can’t see Dunaden being quick enough and it all points to the 4/1 with Paddy Power (which also get refunded if he is second to Nathanial) looking like superb value and worthy of a bigger bet than normal.

4 Points win St Nicholas Abbey Paddy Power Money Back Special 4/1

Long Shot Saturday

21 Saturday Jul 2012

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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15:55 Ascot

Imperial Guest was in my view very unlucky yesterday and although it seems silly to think he can run well again just a day later, the race didn’t look to take much out of him. I don’t think he’ll run if he not about to put up a decent show, and I just think he is a horse on his way back to good form. The better ground this time compared to what he has faced in his other big 7f runs a Ascot earlier this year should really help and he worth a small bet at 33/1 EW with 5 places.

1pt EW 33/1 5 Places Bet365 & Boyles

14:35 Newmarket

Damika has been getting back to form lately, and this has the look of a weak enough race she he may be able to dominate. This tough 5 furlongs might just be about right. The win at Nottingham and close 6th at Doncaster next run are both decent and give him a definite chance here. 14/1 looks about 4 points too big.

1 Point win 14/1 BetVictor and StanJames

15:45 Newmarket

Pravda Street is one of my old favourites and on the form of his 7th in the Victoria Cup of 6lbs higher would be easily enough to take a hand in this weaker race. He was poor last time which is probably the reason for the big price, but he is back 1 furlong in trip from that run and looks better in general on softer ground. 22 on Betfair certainly looks quite a few points too big and worth a bet.

1 Point win Betfair 22

15:25 Market Rasen

Qulinton won this last year of a higher mark, and I’m just going to ignore his runs since then as id be pretty sure that today is the day yet again. He showed a bit of a return to some kind of form last time out when he stayed on for 4th in a Hurdle, and the fact that he has been hurdling in his last few runs makes me think they have found his right mark over fences after a long series of poor runs. The trainer is well capable of getting one ready to be spot on for a particular day and the way he walked away with this race last year must surly give him a great chance of a repeat.

2 Points win Betfair 10.5

Friday Long Shots

19 Thursday Jul 2012

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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Ascot 3:55

Imperial Guest looks to be better suited to this test tomorrow over his favourite course. He has run well enough on his 2 runs so far this at Ascot but hasn’t looked to have stayed in the soft ground. The 6 Furlongs on better ground should be just about perfect and he looks exceptional value at 14/1 on Paddy Power , I would think he would go off less that 8/1 for this. He has got a 3lbs claimer on with a decent mark, and has run well in better races than here of a higher mark.

2 Points win 14/1 Paddy Power

Ascot 4:30

Tagula Night is a pure gut feeling selection. He is down to a mark he can perform off, and has come back to win a few times off a couple of poor runs. 3 runs ago he performed well behind Lui Rei & Judge & Jury when a staying on 4th over 5 Furlongs on Soft Ground. That form could hardly have worked out any better, and I’m having difficulty picking anything with conviction in this race.  He is worth a min bet at 28/1 With Will Hill.

½ Point win 28/1 William Hill

19:35 Pontefract

Blue Jack has given a few signs that a return to form may be imminent. The form of his 2nd to  Mirza at Newbury a few runs ago has worked out really well, and he again ran better than his finishing position last time at York. He is down to an interesting mark here and looks a bit of value at 12/1 in a few places. He also should be better on good ground.

1 Point win 12/1 Various

20:15 Killarney

18 Wednesday Jul 2012

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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Dancing Tornado is one I’ve followed a few times a big priced lately without a lot of success, but his last run was eye-catching in a better race than todays. That race at limerick was also over 2 shot a trip and the extra 6 furlongs here along with being 2lbs lower in the weights should only help. But for a mistake at the last he would have been a lot closer to the winner and started to run on again near the post. He looks a bit of value on Betfair at 32.

1 Point win 32 Betfair

Stats Update

18 Wednesday Jul 2012

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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Slade Power won nicely to put us in profit both in the longshots and the Shorties can be value. He looks like a horse for the future.

 

 

15:05 Fairyhouse 6f Belgrave Stakes

15 Sunday Jul 2012

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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Slade Power looks great value for this race at the moment at 4.7 on Betfair. There is a considerable question as to how well he can handle the soft ground as he has never raced on soft, but the form of his last 2 runs couldn’t have worked out any better, and as he is a Sprinter that looks on the upgrade against a few well exposed sorts and a disappointing Filly in After, I think he is worth taking a chance with at that price. Hi last run when beating Es Que Love looked great at the time as that horse nearly got away but since then Es Que Love has run very well in the Group 1 Diomond Jubilee and the 3rd Lethal Force ran a great race at Ascot.

3 Points win 4.7 Betfair

54/1 Winner Kings Warrior

15 Sunday Jul 2012

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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Its about time we had a decent result with Kings Warrior winning the John Smiths Cup yesterday at advised odds of 55 on betfair. Ill be updating the stats later on.

Image

18:50 Longchamp Juddmonte Grand Prix De Paris

14 Saturday Jul 2012

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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Top Trip looks seriously overpriced here at 13 on Betfair, he  had to come from the back in the French Derby and finished really well having gone outside into the straight to be 5th. Not as unlucky as Imperial Monarch, but looks to have a great shot here at a good price

2pts win 13 Betfair

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