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LongshotValue

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LongshotValue

Category Archives: Festival Selections

5:40 Punchestown, Kildare Hunt Club Fr Sean Breen Memorial Chase

23 Monday Apr 2012

Posted by longshotvalue in Festival Selections

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No Notions ran what looked a decent race last time out in a vastly better race than this at Fairyhouse. Although he pulled up just before the last he had travelled well until just before then. I just don’t fancy either of the 2 ahead of him in the market, and any improvement from this 6yo would give him a great chance here. In fact anything like his first hunter chase run last year when 2nd in a race that had his 2 main market rivals behind would make his current 7.8 on Betfair look like great value. He is 6/1 with Bet365, and my gut feeling is that he may be gambled on tomorrow.

2 Points win 6/1 Bet365

15:05 Aintree Kalahari King

13 Friday Apr 2012

Posted by longshotvalue in Festival Selections

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Kalahari King has been very poor this year, but he tends to blow hot or cold anyway and has plenty of times in the past come back from poor runs to top class, last years Ryanair being one example. He made a bad mistake in this years ryanair, and had nothing at the finish, but Aintree is a great place for shocks and given his decent course form and the chance that he can suddenly get back to form I think the 42 on Betfair is worth a small bet. Albertas Run will be hard to beat but he looks short enough and Poquelin is solid but he always seems to find a few too good in these Grade 1’s.. This is a bit of a shot in the dark on Gut feeling but probably worth a min bet.

½  Point win 42 Betfair

16:50 Aintree Orsippus & Ski Sunday

12 Thursday Apr 2012

Posted by longshotvalue in Festival Selections

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Orsippus is one I’ve had in mind for a race here all year. His last 2 races have been eye-catching enough. He has won at the meeting before, and has proved he can handle this mark as he was 3rd in the Coral Cup last year of the exact same mark. I think the 22 available on Betfair is worth a bet, as he looks sure to get competitive here.

1 Point win 22 Betfair

Ski Sunday is a bit of a shot in the dark as I had tipped him at Cheltenham but he fell early on. He has decent course form being 2nd in the Grade 1 4yo a few years ago. He has shot down the weights this year and has a good jockey on for the first time tomorrow. Gut feeling more than anything tells me he might just improve here at a big price. Ill go for a small bet at 40/1 and 5places.

.5 Points EW 40/1 Bet365 5 Places

15:40 Aintree Frankie Figg

12 Thursday Apr 2012

Posted by longshotvalue in Festival Selections

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Frankie Figgs day is more than likely tomorrow after a somewhat disappointing season. Looking at the race he does stand out as being on a good mark, with course & distance form. The stable is really firing now and it wouldn’t be much of a surprise to see him back to his best in what has to be assumed has been his target all season. He is on exactly the same mark with which he won the Grand Sefton 2 years ago. He’s had a nice break from his last run, and 11/1 with Will Hill could look very good value tomorrow as I would fully expect him to be backed into favourite here. In addition he is only carrying 10:03 and with a lot of the field out of the weights, it all seems to stack up in his favour.

1 Point win 11/1 Will Hill

14:30 Aintree Gottany O’s

11 Wednesday Apr 2012

Posted by longshotvalue in Festival Selections

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Gottany O’s is the sort of horse that seems to do well at the Aintree Festival. He looked very good on his second last run soundly beating Lyvius. He was poor next time out, but it did seem too poor to be true and Im hoping that the Tongue Tie might just do the trick to see him finish out the race better. He was much the same standard on the flat as most of the favs and 25/1 warrants a small bet. Not having run at Cheltenham can be a big advantage.

.5pt Win 25/1 Various

17:25 Aintree Star of Angels

11 Wednesday Apr 2012

Posted by longshotvalue in Festival Selections

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Star Of Angels looks to have the right kind of profile for this race. He’s had less racing than most of the field this year, and didn’t have a hard race at Cheltenham as he was brought down at the 3rd. He has plenty of decent form in the past including a good 4th in the Coral Cup a few years ago. There is a good possibility he was readied for a good end of season campaign by pipe. Once there are no ill effects from his fall at Cheltenham the current 22/1 with Coral is a standout price, given that he is generally 16/1 which looks more likely to be around the correct odds.

1pt win 22/1 Coral

16:50 Aintree Menorah

11 Wednesday Apr 2012

Posted by longshotvalue in Festival Selections, Saturday Selections

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Menorah has in my view about the same level of form as Al Ferof, and his price of 11/2 with Stan James looks exceptional value compared to the 11/10 or evens about the Fav. He did finish ahead in the Arkle when both made mistakes, but I think he is still capable of a big run and the step up in trip should suit along with the easier track.

2 Points win 11/2 Stan James

15:05 Aintree, Betfred Bowl Chase What A Friend

11 Wednesday Apr 2012

Posted by longshotvalue in Festival Selections

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What A Friend ran a very good race at Newbury behind Long Run when like Burton Port he was closing at the end. He fell at the 2nd in the Gold Cup and with that race probably having taken a huge amount out of his principle adversaries here he looks a good prospect at a decent price. He has won this race before and in my view should be 3rd Fav here behind Riverside Theatre and Burton Port. The fact that they both had exceptionally hard races at Cheltenham should bring him closer to them. I got a bit of 11/1 this afternoon but the 9/1 available in a few places still looks a bit of value. Ive just noticed a bit of 10/1 available in Ladbrokes

1pt Win 9/1 Tote/Betfred/Coral 10/1 Ladbrokes

Irish Grand National Report

11 Wednesday Apr 2012

Posted by longshotvalue in Festival Selections

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Deal Done ran a great race to just get run out of the 5 places at 40/1, the other 2 selections never figured at all really. Pricewise’s selection just failed and traded at 1/7 going down to the last so he was very unlucky there. Daldini ran a good race to be 3rd at Huntington and might be one to watch soon enough of this mark. Overall a loss of 8 points on the day which is poor and brings the pricewise race closer at Pricewise -6 LongshotValue +13.6 both Advised. Overall stats https://longshotvalue.com/longshotvalue-v-pricewise/

16:15 Aintree, Oiseau de Nuit

11 Wednesday Apr 2012

Posted by longshotvalue in Festival Selections

≈ Leave a comment

Oiseau de Nuit  has been very consistent really over the last 2-3 years. He was travelling really well last time out in the Grand Annual when he was brought down 3 out and it looked to me he was defiantly getting involved there. He has a few extra pounds in hard over the likes on Thanks for That who was 2nd and considering he was 2nd in this race last year off 2 lbs higher I really think he is in with a big chance here. The 12/1 available with Paddy Power and Bet365 looks exceptional value and worth a EW bet.

1 pt EW 12/1  PP/B365

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