5:35 Ascot

Excellent Guest must be one of my most profitable horses; he has given me a few wins at big prices and also got placed on a number of occasions. He loves Ascot, 7 furlong’s is his best trip and is back down to his last winning mark. 25/1 with 6 places in paddy power is a very decent concession and worthy of a larger than usual bet for me.

2 Points EW 25/1 6 Places Paddy Power

Scratching around looking for backup in this race and came across Georgian bay who won the race on the wrong side of the track in the Victoria Cup last time out here. There were some very good Ascot Stalwart’s over that side including my fancy Excellent guest and given that he is very well drawn today in 28 he should stands a much better chance today. The 6 places with paddy power again looks value at 28/1 . In addition I picked Santefisio the other day and he ran an eye-catching enough race, and will surely be set to run a repeat of last year when he also ran in both and finished a good 4^th in this again on the wrong side. He is well drawn near the middle and although I was hoping for a bigger price I’d be kicking myself not to have a saver on him now.

1 Point EW Georgian bay  28/1 6 Places Paddy Power

1 Point win Santefisio 25 Betfair

 

3:05 Ascot

Wigmore Hall looks down to a great mark should love the ground and really after only 1 run this season should be spot on for this. He has been dropped too much for a poor AW run at the end of last season. 22/1 with 4 places looks miles too big.

2 Points EW 22/1 4 Places BetVictor

1 Point EW Double Betfair SportsBook

22/1 4 Places Wigmore Hall and 25/1 5 Places Excellent Guest

4:25 Ascot

Tapestry is an interesting price looking this race as for some reason I can’t like anything lower priced. She was a very good 2yo but flopped badly in the 1000, when obviously not right. I’m going to give her a decent chance to get back on track here. 12/1 looks value enough for the risk.

1 Point win 12/1 Various

Ascot Gold Cup

Saddlers Rock hasn’t really lived up to expectations in the last 18 Months, but does have his favoured fast ground today. He has had a couple of good runs at the end of last year and if he can get back to form he is capable of getting involved he on a course he generally runs well on. 50/1 is above the threshold that I can avoid selecting him for E/W value as his place chance is much better than 12/1. There is also the option of 40/1 with 4 places with coral, and its close as to which is the best value. I think I’ll err on the side of caution and go for the 4 places here.

1 Point EW 40/1 4 Places Coral

Royal Hunt Cup 5:00

Santefisio ran a superb race last year in the Buckingham Palace here when 4^th off this mark. He comfortably won the race on his side and I think he may well be suited by the step up in trip. His last 2 runs have looked to have him back to form and I’m pretty sure than this race has been his target. 50/1 looks good value for good Ascot Form which means a lot here.

1 Point EW 50/1 5 Places Stan James / Ladbrokes

Also in this race Trumpet Major’s form on good or faster ground is very good and as well as he ran last time I think he will be better here over 1 furlong  shorter as all his form is over 1 mile. He could well be the class horse of the race and a rating of 106 looks a tad generous as he was a solid 114 horses only 18 months ago. He has had just 2 runs this year and I wouldn’t be surprised if this was his target.

1 Point win 18/1 Betfair/Ladbrokes

Sole Power superbly scuppered our huge price 100/1 shot Stepper Point , but at a place price of 25/1 we’d have to be happy with that.

Ascot 5:00

Waterclock sticks out for me considerably here at the prices. The Trainer is boasting a very good strike rate at the moment and especially with Graham Lee on board. He was a great 2^nd at the end of last year in the Cesarewitch off only 2 lbs. less and looks sure to be better for the step up in trip. His first run this year can be discounted as he was never in the Chester Cup, being behind all the way. 33/1 looks a fairly significant overprice compared to the rest of the field and as a 5yo with more improvement to come over this type of trip he looks great value.

1 Point EW 33/1 Various

Ascot 4:25

War Command has some of the best 2yo form possible and blew away the field here in the Coventry here last year. I think he could well improve massively from the 2000 and wouldn’t be surprised if he went of much shorter that 15/2. That price is just 2-3 points to big at least as has to be taken for value

1 Point win 15/2 Stan/888

Ascot 3:45

I really think this is between Sole Power and Shea Shea, but I think I’ve found a possible wrong priced horse in Stepper Point at 100/1. I’m not sure there is much between him and the likes of Steps who is a far shorter price. His close 4^th behind Sole Power and Hot Streak in similar conditions reads really well and if we can put 2 poorer runs in France behind him a repeat of that form might have him in with a big chance to outrun those odds.

1 Point EW 100/1 Stepper Point BetV/888 

Doncaster 4:15

The outsider of the field here looks to be underestimated on his seasonal reappearance. Secret Look should be able to perform of this mark, being only 1 lbs. higher than his win in a good Newmarket handicap last year. He actually has run well on both his seasonal reappearance’s, and as a 4yo sprinter could well improve this year. 33/1 seem a ridiculous price hopefully there will be a few quid for him before the race.

1 Point EW 33/1 Various

I’m also going with the 12/1 about Secret Witness here as he has a decent course record and is certainly coming into form at the moment. Top weight is a negative but he has done it in the past.

1 Point win 12/1 Stan James

A Few big priced placed efforts today broke the 500 point total for the overall history of logged bets.

Strictly Silver and Masamah both placed at 25/1.

Royal Ascot next week so fingers crossed.

Chester 4:15

Strictly Silver ran a decent race here 2 runs ago off a 9lbs higher mark and a repeat of that with an additional 5lbs claimer on today should bring him right into the firing line. We have to forgive a poor run last time out but that is reflected in what looks an over generous 25/1. He won last year of 97 and if he can get back to form at all that price is going to look very big.

1 Point EW 25/1 Various

York 5:35

Going with a shot in the dark here in L’Ami Louis. He has been out of form for a long time but has slipped to a very low mark and is bound to pop up at some stage. He wouldn’t have to get back to his best to be competitive of this mark.

½ Point win 25/1 Various

Musselburgh 2:30

Above Standard was very consistent last year and considering he won first time out last year I wouldn’t be surprised if he is ready to go here today. He has a 7lbs claimer on today and 14/1 looks a couple of points too big.

1 Point win 14/1 Various

Musselburgh 3:35

This is one hell of a tight 5 furlong handicap and I’m going to go with a couple of big outsiders that will require a return to form to get involved.  Doc Hay is going to need a miracle based on his current form but he should be suited by the conditions here and is down to a decent mark here for this big prize. 33/1 is over the threshold where it worth taking a risk. In Addition Masamah looks overpriced at 25/1 given his very decent place form over the last year or 2 and he is well capable of getting out in front and not getting caught here.

1 Point EW Doc Hay 33/1 Various

1 Point EW Masamah 25/1 Various

7:30 Fiaryhouse

Here I go again over the cliff, Norville running in this weak looking affair. The negatives are its not the Curragh and its over 7 furlongs but 14/1 is too big as he is obviously in decent form give his good run at the weekend.  I’ll go win only as I don’t think the place side is value.

2 Points win 14/1 Lads/Vic/Betfair

We got out of the slump with a nice 28/1 winner in Clockmaker. He was backed into 10/1 and obliged under a great Hayley Turner ride..