One of my Favourite Races, and I think I’ve found one that is hugely overpriced here. Grissom had a great win a few runs ago in the Scottish Stewards cup of a mark of 90. He then ran poorly at york of ground that was too fast for him, but next time out he ran an eye-catching race in the Stewards Cup at Goodwood, when getting blocked on a few occasions in the last 2 furlongs when looking ready to run a big race. He is only 3lbs higher than his last win and judging by his last race he can go well of this mark. Skybet are paying 5 places at the moment and are 25/1 which looks huge to me, and means a decent bet for me. Has the look of one that could shorten tomorrow, possibly if he is a pick of a certain value tipster.
2pts EW 25/1 Skybet 5 places
Damika has looked to me to be bubbling under ready to run a big race for his last few runs, and where better than the scene of his biggest triumph a couple of years ago in the Great St Wilfred over c&d. He has been noted by me a few times lately, finishing his races well. He is drawn near the middle which should be fine and looks overpriced at 24 on Betfair.
1 Point win 24 betfair
I’m going to give Medici Time another chance here. He ran an eye-catching race 2 runs ago here on softer ground over 5 Furlongs, and although he was poor last time he is down to mark he can certainly win of. He is 6lbs lower than his win at Newmarket last year and any kind of return to form at all will give him a great chance. The fact that he was punted last time gives me hope that he is performing at home.
1 Point win 20 Betfair
Kiama Bay racked up a nice sequence of runs over 12 furlongs last year including over course and distance. He has been tried over further this year but I fancy the step back in trip and reduced mark will give him a great chance here in what looks a decent opportunity. He is currently 10/1 with Paddy Power and to me he looks more of a 7/1 shot. The 2 favourites look to me to have a bit too much weight to carry.
2 Points win 10/1 Paddy Power
Kyllachy Star has been creeping back to form while dropping gradually in the weights. He is here of a mark he can score off and in my view is one of the more likely winners. He is 3lbs lower than his very good 2nd on his season opener and this race represents a drop in class from what he has generally being racing with credit in this year. 8/1 with Bet365 looks value. He nearly always runs his race and if he does that in this race of this mark he won’t be far away.
2 Point win 8/1 Bet365
Lutine Bell has a very good record around here, never running a bad race and all of marks higher than today. His last 2 runs have been eye-catching when finishing well in stronger races than today having not got the best of starts both times. Should he get away he looks to be clearly coming back to form and although I’m late for the 14/1 that was available a few minutes ago 12/1 still looks plenty of value.
2 Points win 12/1 various