Mad Max looks too big a price in this race. He had what looked an ok return this year, and if he is fitter for that run combined with a few pounds dropped he could well get involved today at a huge looking 20/1 with William Hill. On looking at his past form he is 111 from 3 runs of soft ground. He also has what looks a nice racing weight of 11:04 here and in my view has been written of too quickly here.
1 Point win 20/1 William Hill
A very difficult race to be happy with any selection here given the ground and what looks a poor enough race quality wise for such a big pot. I’m going to go with a bit of value with a low weight, and an unknown quantity in Katenko. He has some very good form on soft ground in France a couple of years ago, and in fact there may not be that much between him and the other ex French horse much lower in the betting Katkeau. He is worth a risk of a decent weight, with a canny trainer well capable of getting him ready for a tilt at this type of race.
1Point win 20/1 Katenko BetVictor / StanJames
In my view todays slog will suit Long Run much better than the rest of this field and he doesn’t need to be within 10lbs of his best to win here. Silviniaco Conti is a pretty obvious danger but at 9/4 he is no value at all and needs to improve a hell of a lot to take this. It’s well within the realms of possibility that he might improve enough but can’t be backed at that price. He also hasn’t run on this type of ground before. All that makes the 7/4 about Long Run look a superb bet and he looks at best and evens shot to me if not odds-on, and that margin makes a more sizable bet a must
4 Points win 7/4 Long Run Various
Mark the brook warrants a small bet here purely for the fact the he loves heavy ground. Before he missed 2 seasons in 2011/2010 he was a very consistent chaser in heavy ground ,and had a nice win again last year on his second run. 34 on Betfair looks worth a min bet as if he is fit enough he should be still going when other have long cried enough.
½ Point win 34 Betfair