3:50 Kempton

Going to go with one of the big outsiders here in Hectors Choice, he was second in this race last year of 1lb higher, and won a very decent race at Cheltenham of only 1 lb lower. He is clearly a good ground horse and it looks as if he’ll be getting that tomorrow. He has had a prep race over hurdles on unsuitable soft ground lately and should strip fitter for that run. Hopefully this race has been the plan after last year’s good show and 55 win 10 place on Betfair looks huge.

1 Point win @ 55 1 Point place @11 Betfair

3:50 Kempton

What a Friend, looks to have been given a small chance by the handicapper here, especially considering his run this time last year in the Denman Chase. He had one poor run at Aintree last year after falling in the Gold Cup and that is the reason for his big price here. He has a very decent record fresh and loved better ground. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he can stay on into a place here and 33/1 looks decent value.

1 Point ew 33/1 Various

Newcastle 2:55

Our Island, is one I was going for a couple of weeks ago before he was a nun runner and this race could well be ideal for him. It looks a weaker race than what he has performed well in for the last year or two and is down to his lowest mark ever. He actually looks the most likely winner to me and as such I’m surprised to see him 6th in the betting at 10/1. He has had 2 very decent runs in the Welsh National of higher marks and the trip and ground will be of no difficulty to him.

2 Points win 10/1 Various

3:20 Chepstow.

Cornas, has a very decent record fresh, and in my view has been dropped a generous amount for his poor run in April last year. Other than that run he was a model of consistency during the year and despite not running this year he looks a big price here at 12/1.

1 Point win 12/1 with Bet365