I’ve been waiting a long time for Barizan to get his ideal conditions and it’s finally here. He was poor over the last year or 2 but came back to life lately on unsuitable ground with a good win and an equally good 4th in the Imperial Cup. The trainer says he has sorted out his issues and if that is the case he has a huge amount in his favour here. He is on a great mark, has absolutely top class form on good or better ground, only being unplaced once, and that was a very good 6th at the Festival of 12lbs higher. His form reads 13111223611 on his favoured ground. He didn’t get in to anything at the festival of this mark and I’m hoping he’s been waiting for an opportunity. The 20/1 with Bet Victor looks exceptional value, and although I’m tempted to wait and see if anyone will beat that, it’s a great price, & I’ll be going in again if the price is better anywhere else. It think there is a significant chance that it’ll be a case of Barizan never getting caught tomorrow with his light weight and fast ground.
3pts EW 20/1 VCBET
IT won’t be a surprise to anyone that has seen my previous selections that I’m going to side with Excellent Guest here tomorrow. He has an excellent course record and has generally performed well in these types of races. He has been knocked back to what looks a very reasonable mark here of 93, for a poor run at the end of last season, and considering his 2nd here in the Royal Hunt Cup last year of 1 lb higher he should be able to get competitive here of that mark. He has run well in the past first time out and generally goes better on decent ground. 25/1 5 places with a few bookies looks very decent and worth a bet given his level of consistency in these races.
1 Point EW 25/1 5 Places 365/Paddy/Sky
I can’t not have a bet on Australia Day here tomorrow. He absolutely scooted up over fences a week ago on fast ground and on the best of his flat form he is well in here. It’s a pity there are no fences to jump but he obviously is in great form and I’ll have to have a bit of the 8/1 available. He could well be hard to catch around here in his favoured conditions
2 Points win 8/1 generally
I’m not one for generally backing favourites in these handicaps, but I thought Attaglance would be shorter here. He is very well in on his chase mark after a few poor enough novice chase runs. He seems to prefer good ground judging by his very good end of the season last year, with good wins at both Cheltenham and Aintree. The Aintree race was won of a mark of 144, which does make his chase mark of 133 very interesting. We’re taking it on trust that hell improve now handicapping but I’m prepared to take that chance at the best price of 7/1
2 Points win 7/1 Ladbrokes and others
Rocket Rob, ran an eye-catching race last time at Sandown when coming from last to snatch 2nd behind Tagula Night. That run looks to confirm that a step up to 6 furlongs will be an advantage and he looks overpriced here at 20/1. He has been competitive of higher marks in the past and has been reasonably consistent. The draw at the lower end is probably fine and he’s worth a small EW bet.
1 Point EW 20/1 BetVictor / Sporting Bet/Betfair