Society Rock sticks out straight away here as too big a price at 11 on betfair for this race. He was an unlucky 3rd last year on his reappearance, and 2 unproven horses are ahead of him in the betting. They have a fair way to go yet to get to his top class form and although they may improve enough to win here there aren’t any guarantees of that. Society Rock is almost always in with a shout in Group1s so 10/1 about this Group 2 looks great value. I’d be tempted to go for both him and Gordon Lord Byron but he does seem to be better over longer. In my view he is the Favourite here and 10/1 seems nearly double what he should be.
2 Points win 11 Betfair
Very difficult race and nothing really stands out but I’ll go for a min win bet on Silvery Moon here. He won a very similar if not better race in similar conditions last year at Doncaster with 1lb more to carry. He looked in need of the run first time out this season, which he also did last year and the current 16/1 available generally looks decent. If he can reproduce that form here or even the 3rd over c&d last year he will stand a small chance.
½ Point win Silvery Moon 16/1 Bet365 and others
Tax Free was still producing the goods last year on a few occasions and won here last year from Mass Rally, of 4lbs higher. He also had a good 2nd at Ripon and a few other decent performances. I Thought his last run a little over a week ago showed some spark and but for the fact that he got tight for room 1 furlong out he may well have been a lot closer than he was. He is down another 2lbs for that that has to give him a small chance here. 28/1 looks a bit of value and worth a min bet
½ Point EW Bet365 28/1
Cosmic Sun is a formally decent horse who has been very poor for the last year or two. I’m not sure why I think there is a small chance that could change tomorrow, but if he were to show anything at all this mark will give him a chance. A top stable has stuck with him for a long time for it to be completely worthless and he is tried in a tongue tie tomorrow in the hopes of finding the key. Its more gut feeling than anything, and I’d be raging not to have a min bet at decent odds just in case my gut feeling was correct.
½ Point win 32 Betfair