I’ve been waiting to bet Maarek for this during the week as I wanted a nrnb at decent odds. He is very unlikely to run if it doesn’t rain and will shorten significantly as soon as it does. The 25/1 now available with Sky bet, will look exceptional value of it rains. His last run was poor but his previous run behind Society Rock when 5th makes those odds looks very attractive as an EW bet. Obviously the more rain the better but he’ll have some chance if he runs at all.
1pt EW 25/1 SkyBET Non Runner No Bet
This race looks on the face of it between the top 2 in the betting here. They have proved a number of times to be a step ahead of most of the rest of the field here and its hard to see any change in that today. There is an unknown in Sea Siren and possibly Slade Power but I think the value here has to be the 8/1 Available about Gordon Lord Byron. There isn’t a lot between him and Society Rock, who is one of my favourite horses, but 8/1 looks too good to resist, and I think he is more of a 5-6/1 shot. I also have Maarek bet earlier in the week in the hopes of rain, which now doesn’t look like arriving, but he still may get into a place.
2 Points win Gordon Lord Byron 8/1 Paddy Power
Elusivity’s win record is poor enough really but in general he has been consistent enough. He sticks out here as being overpriced at 25/1 with 5 places on Paddy Power, and has a touch of class that a lot of these have yet to prove. He has been good form in all his runs this year and it’s a bit of a surprise for me that he is that unconsidered in this handicap at a mark he is more or less proven off.
1 Point EW 25/1 5 Places Paddy Power
I’m going for a min bet on a gut feeling selection as well, which is fairness has almost no reasoning behind it. Bapak Chinta won a very good 2yo race at Ascot a couple of years ago, and really didn’t show anything at all after that. I did see a tiny glint of hope last time out and he has dropped considerably in mark which might give him a tiny chance back here. It be kicking myself if he improved here and i wasn’t on at 80/1 on Betfair.
½ Point win 80 Betfair
Silver Lime looks a fair bit overpriced here considering his very good run in the Ladbroke’s mobile over this c&d and conditions last year. He also showed up well on his seasonal reappearance at Newmarket and although he was outpaced over a shorter trip next time out he has surely been aimed at this race. He has a first time hood on tomorrow and 22/1 with Paddy Power looks well worth a bet.
1 Point EW 22/1 Paddy Power
I’m going of something fairly straightforward in the 2yo race. Aidan O’Brien’s Friendship is available at 14 on Betfair at the moment, and despite the fact that he didn’t win on debut (which doesn’t mean anything as they always improve for a run), that price is too big to ignore. I find these 2yo races a total lottery at the best of times but the stable choice of runner here isn’t a 14/1 shot.
1 Point win 14 Betfair