I’ve looked at this Handicap a few times this week and I keep stopping at the same horse Palace Moon. He just ticks a few boxes that may give him a chance at huge odds here. He won 3 handicaps last year starting at the mark he is of now. He has also on numerous occasions followed up poor runs with very good races, and has had a quite enough season compared to most of these. He started out this year with a decent enough run in a Listed Race in which he didn’t get the best of runs against higher rated rivals. He has had a couple of down the field runs in handicaps in fairly quick succession, which has resulted in a decent drop in mark. He has had a month break this time which is more his normal break and has a Tongue Tie on for tomorrow. I’m hopeful that he has had these end of season handicaps on his radar this year. He is currently 50/1 with 5 places at Skybet and that stands out as a very decent price.
I’m sure ill be putting up 1 or 2 more for this race this evening.
1 Point EW 50/1 5 places Skybet
I’m going to go with one of my Favourite horses again here for a min bet just in case. I had in my mind if Excellent Guest got to 30 on Betfair I’d have 1/2 a point as his Ascot record is exceptional, and he actually won really well there earlier this year. He is 5lbs higher here now but he has run well of that mark before, and I’d be disgusted if I didn’t have a small bit on at that price. I’m also going with the stable’s other runner in Rebellious Guest, he has been running in these handicaps rather poorly but he has come down to what looks a decent mark and with a good 3lbs claimer, my gut feeling is that he may run well today.
½ Point win Excellent Guest 30 Betfair
½ Point win Rebellious Guest 70 Betfair
I had been looking at Sirius Prospect for the big race at Ascot, but he has turned up here in a weaker race. He has been running in top races, and his mark here of 102 looks workable enough in this race. I’m not sure he would have to be at his absolute best to win this and at 14/1 he looks well worth a small bet in case he decided to put in a decent performance here.
1 Point win 14/1 Various
Secret Witness has a very decent record at York and looked to be getting back to some kind of form last time out in a Group 3 in Ireland. By the looks of the big handicap today at york he may well have the best draw and he has come down to a workable mark after a generally below par year. He looks a nice bit of value at 25/1 EW and may well be difficult to pass here at his favourite course.
1 Point EW 25/1 Lads/365
Crackentorp, ran his best race for a while at Newcastle last time out and back here on his favourite course he must have a very decent chance of a return to form of what looks a decent mark. This race doesn’t look to have many great other options and I would expect Crackentorp to go of shorter than the 10/1 available now.
1 Point win 10/1 Betvictor & WillHill