Court By Surprise is dropping down is class here and I’m having trouble finding any viable alternative bar the favourite who has to cope with a big rise in handicap mark. He will need to get over a poor enough run last time when he appeared not to stay after traveling well, but this is a few furlongs shorter and he has been given a decent chance by the handicapper here. I missed the 6/1 last night but 11/2 is still plenty of value and he could well have a bit much for these.
1 Point win 11/2 Various
I’m very late on the Saddlers Rock bandwagon which is no harm as he has been a talking horse a long time without anything falling right for him but he looks a decent price for his today. On his day he is well capable of winning a race like this and the 25/1 with Hills looks a decent price. The favourite has the best form in the race but is very short. I’m going to be sticking with min bets on the flat this year for a while.
½ Point win 25/1 William Hill 22/1 elsewhere
Sole Power has done me a few turns in his time and again here he looks a bit underestimated. Although Shea Shea has the beating of him here, he is far too short and the price difference is way too big to ignore given how little there has been between them. He will need luck in running but certainly has a better than 7/1 chance of timing it right. It isn’t a very deep race really I have him more of a 4/1 shot.
1 Point win 15/2 BetVictor 7/1 Generally
It is somewhat depressing having to look through these races after the excitement of Cheltenham but the NH will be over shortly and I’ll have to get back on the flat handicap train for the Saturday Fix anyway. I had some difficulty finding anything well handicapped here but one that I felt stood out a bit is Born to Surprise. He has a great course record with 2 wins and a decent run out of 3 runs here albeit over 7 Furlongs. He does look like he needs the step up in trip looking at some of his races and in certainly well handicapped on his best form which includes a win with 4 pounds higher. He had a pipe opener on the All Weather lately and ran on well when not really in the race. I’d be hopeful that the trainer has prepared him for this as he doesn’t have many turf runners and the 25/1 with 5 places with BET365 looks the best option here.
½ Point EW 25/1 5 Places Bet365 28/1 4 Places elsewhere.
I hope Magician win this well and goes on to be a superstar this season, but one of my old favourites Meandre in running here at a big price and has been in decent form this year. It is sort of difficult to see him winning here but he has a very good place record and I think he is overpriced to place at 7/1 with Paddy Power and 9/1 on Betfair for small money. On Official handicap mark he is one of the highest rated in the field.
1 Point place Betfair 8/1