I think there is a pretty big mistake in the prices here regarding Cotton Mill. I don’t think there is much between a lot of these behind the fav but he is here on probably the best terms only 1 lb. outside the handicap and I don’t really fancy the 2 that are on their proper mark, Court Minstrel or Flaxen Flare. Given that he clearly didn’t stay last time out at the festival, most of his other runs have been more or less to this mark this year. Anything resembling his second in the Betfair Hurdle behind My Tent or Yours would be good enough to at least place here, and I think 20/1 is far too big. A slight ease in the ground here will probably suit him. I can’t resist going with my favourite horse even if he stands seemingly little chance at the weights. Barizan can be hard to peg back if on form especially with only 10:04 on his back and the 50/1 with Paddy Power is still worth a min risk just in case.
2 Points EW Cotton Mill 20/1 Various
½ Point EW Barizan 50/1 Paddy Power
3:50 Ayr Scottish Grand National
Roberto Goldback looks to have been given a great chance here the way the weights have worked out. He has been running well enough this year, and really caught the eye last time out at the festival staying on for 3rd in the Kim Muir. Amazingly he is down another 2lbs for that run and I think nowadays he looks a dour stayer and 20/1 with 5 places looks a very decent bet . He should be suited by the decent enough ground, and with more than half the field out of the weights he looks a bargain at that price. I’m going with a gut feeling selection in Lie Forrit who has been steadily climbing the handicap in hurdles this year and won of a mark of 140 in his latest race last month. His 3rd in the Fixed Brush Hurdle is particularly strong form, and I just think if he can jump well at all here, he could get involved of his mark, even if he is 5lbs out of the handicap.
1 Point EW 20/1 Roberto Goldback 5places Betfred/Sky
1 Point EW 25/1 Lie Forrit 5 places Betright
I’m not happy to be back looking at these big field flat handicaps, but I’ll have to get back into it sooner rather than later. Magic City could well get involved here as he is back to within 2lbs of his easy success at Goodwood, and looks too big a price at 33/1. I don’t think he will be too inconvenienced by the step up in trip and if he is ready to go that looks value. Ill be keeping stakes low on the flat for a while.
½ Point win 33/1 Various