I think the market may have got it wrong here with the Nichols pair. The 7lbs claimer is on Rebel Rebellion more than likely to take 7lbs of his top weight rather than him being 2nd choice here. He ran a great race last time out in the Grand Sefton and is effectively 8lbs better off here. He should like the conditions and trip etc and to be honest seem the most likely winner to me. 6/1 looks a huge price in this race. The favourite Black River finally got it going last time out in a weak enough novice handicap and he seems way to short of his new mark.
2 Points win 6/1 generally.
If in doubt on a Saturday and the ground is soft, it’s so tempting to go for a Venetia Williams horse blindly. I’ve looked a Leviathan a couple of times for this race and as his price has gone out now to 22/1 I’m getting more and more interested. He was really poor last time here, but had run twice in 3 weeks on soft ground and I’m hoping that had taken its toll. If he can get back to his previous form of that win at Ascot also on soft ground he won’t be out of the equation here as he won well there and is only a manageable 5lbs higher here. I’ll go for a min bet as if it wins and I didn’t put him up the remote would be lodged in the middle of the screen.
½ Point win 22/1 Generally
Oscar Prarie is hard enough to catch on the right day , but this time last year of around this mark with a claimer on he won a similar race in similar conditions, and if he needed his seasonal opener and can get back to a bit of form here he can get competitive at a big looking 20/1
½ Point win 20/1 Bet365 & Will-Hill
I’m not a huge fan of pick one out of the weights here but On Trend has won a similar race to this here on the same ground as today of a higher mark that the one he runs of here. I’d imagine he needed his rather poor seasonal introduction and given his previous over the C&D that today may have been the plan. 10 stone will be a nice weight to slog around here today and at 20/1 he is worth the risk
1 Point win 20/1 Bet365 / Lads