Gutted that my bet of the flat season didn’t get into the Bunbury Cup & my second choice is now a non-runner, but anyway nothing can be done.
Sometimes I look at a price and think some of the odds compilers must be on drugs or something. Stepper Point is no 10/1 shot here. He came up against 2 very good young horses last time out and ran a great race to be denied 3rd by a couple of bumps near the end. He is around 6/1 at best maybe less and Out Do looks the main danger.
2 Points win 10/1 Betfair/888
Kingsgate Choice is also a surprisingly big price here. He got back to form last time in no uncertain terms and judging by his previous profile when he was on form he is as consistent as any sprinter. I fully expected him to be at best 12/1 here so the 20/1 on offer will have to be taken.
2 Points Win 20/1 Sky/Stan/Lads
Sole Powers record in Group 1 6 furlong races is not as bad as many people make out. In his last 3 Group 1 6 furlong races he has ran well each time and with his style of racing he needs the breaks to win anyway. There is a price for every horse and 16/1 is just too high for the horse with the fastest kick in racing. The 2 favourites are way too short here. Muthmir may also be overpriced as the step up will more than likely suit him.
Something silly always happens in these races and my original big price selection Jack Dexter probably isn’t much value now since he has been pricewised. Steps has really caught the eye in each of his last 2 runs and he has looked to me as if the step up to 6 furlongs will suit him as he has been really finishing his races well. He was the only one really who did anything from the stand side in the Kings Stand and if he can break a bit better here I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he can sneak into a place at a huge price.
1 Point win Sole Power 16/1 Various
1 Point EW Steps Paddy Power 66/1 4 Places
Having ruled out the whole field from having no chance of winning this nightmare race, I’ve settled on a min bet on the outsider Odeon . I picked the big price winner of the a few years ago who had a somewhat similar profile in that he had some class for the year before. Odoen was 3rd in the Great Voltigeur last year looking like he would be better over shorter. The 10 Furlongs he has here will be ideal and despite the fact that he has been last in his 3 starts this year and they would be mad to be even trying here as he will go down further if he does run poorly here, at 120 on betfair I’ll have a min bet. In general his course form is very good so it would make a tiny bit of sense to have targeted this race. I’ll probably have another one for this in the morning
½ Point win 120 Betfair
I’ve decided to add Tres Coronas to my ammunition for this race because his York record is very good really and I think his place potential today is very good for a 40/1 shot. He has looked good a few times this year and has been looking like a good run is coming.
1 point ew 40/1 vc/coral/888
Now that my bet of the flat year didn’t get in, I’ve been looking at this race trying to find a margin and it looks to me as if most of the field are priced up about right apart from possibly the outsider of the lot Sirius Prospect. He blew his load far too early last time out and I was somewhat impressed he lasted as long as he did. He is proven of this mark and apart from that run had been running well this year. I’m pretty sure he is better over 7 furlongs anyway and I think he is worth a shot at 50/1 EW.
1 Point EW 50/1 VC/Stan