I was all over Suzi’s Connoisseur last week until his price got too short and I couldn’t advise him at the odds for a competitive handicap. He had on the face of it a bit of a shocker but on another watch he got pretty severely boxed in and bullied around with 2 furlongs to go and faded after that. He likes softer ground so it won’t matter what the ground get like tomorrow. 16/1 is just too enticing, and coming out again 7 days later strikes me of a retrieval mission. He has simply not won enough In his carreer so far but of this mark in these conditions around here, if he can get back to gform after last week 16/1 is going to look big.
I also have to go with a horse I have been banging on about this year in Hawkeyethenoo. He was a great 3rd for us at 40/1 around here in the Victoria Cup which was a stronger race than this and really hasn’t had an ideal race since then. I thought he showed up well at the Shergar Cup meeting with a decent tenderly ridden 4th over far too short. It would be better for him if the ground didn’t get any worse. 16/1 altough isn’t what ia may have hoped for is till value and ill have egg on my face if he doesn’t show up soon enough.
Under normal circumstances id be going EW with these (if I had only 1 pick in the race) but with 2 in its probably better in the long run to stick 2 pt win bets on both.
2 Pts win Suzi’s Connoisseur BetVictor & William Hill & Betfair Exchange
2 Pts win Hawkeyethenoo 365/pp/coral and more
Heartbreak is the only word for Suzi’s there 2nd.. Dragged across track..
I’ve been looking at this race all week and as much as the 3yo’s are all top of the betting I think this could be an overreaction having a closer look at all their races. Only Mattmu has really performed at this level and in that race he didn’t really look to be staying much further and had the advantage of being on the right side behind the pace. Given they all look under-priced I’m going to go with Pearl Secret who despite being far too fresh before the race last time finished well from way to far back. If he can reproduce his finish in the Kings Stand when he really ripped up the last furlong from the wrong side to finish a really strong 4th this race could suit him. He was 5th in this last at a big price when perhaps it was on ground to fast. 25/1 with 4 places is far too big for this horse that in the past has needed a run after a break to be seen at his best.
2 Points EW 25/1 4 Places Sky/Hills 22/1 4 places with 365
Looks like i fell into the trap of ignoring the new talent here again. Pearl was nowhere near his best but the 3yo’s dominated.
I’m always ready to forgive a sprinter a poor run as in these races anything going wrong ruins a chance. Fairway to Heaven has been disappointing for a while but on his second to last run he was just denied with a great run at Goodwood and a reproduction of that after the break he has had since his last run would give him a shot here at a big price. He is certainly capable of this mark.
1 Point win 16/1 vc/pp/coral and more
He was well backed and came there with a chance but not good enough on the day
I’m going right down to the bottom of the betting here in the hope of a return to form for B Fifty Two . I think he ran well enough in a high class Ascot sprint on his last run given that he raced in the centre on his own somewhat. He ran too freely next time out at Goodwood but is back to below his last winning mark and has some decent form on softer ground. I think that Ascot run of 5lbs higher than today would put him in with a chance in this much weaker race and he worth a shot at 28/1.
1 Point win 28/1 365/VC 25/1 Elsewhere
I dont know what to say here, 2nd by a fast diminishing Short Head.. 2 Fairly Sick Results there