Long Shot Saturday Part 1

Newmarket 3:50

Since I looked at this race a few days ago Gabrial’s Kaka has interested me at a big price. I’ve been waiting for the extra place specials to come alive for this and now most bookies are 5 places. Last year he won the Spring Cup and put up a fair few decent performances after that of marks of 103. He has been fairly poor most of this year but until his last run he has been improving steadily as he has dropped the weight’s. He has a few excuses for this last run when well supported and I think he may be value at a huge looking 50/1 with Paddy Power. He is 40’s elsewhere and that would also be fine. My gut is he may be put up by one of the more prominent tipsters and it could be worth getting on before then.

1 Point EW 50/1 Paddy Power

This one ran well and was backed but on the wrong side and never stood a chance

Market Rasen 2:50

Edgardo Sol is a frustrating animal have no doubt about that but my gut is he has found a good opportunity here. He ran really well first time out for this stable last year and he is down to a very good mark here after 2 poorer runs at the end of last season. This is his best trip and ground and he may be picking the best time to oppose some of the shorter priced runners in this race. If he can get near the form of his first run last year in the Old Roan Chase he’ll be difficult to beat of this mark. 12/1 with paddy power is very good value and I’d be happy with the 10/1 available elsewhere.

1 Point win 12/1 Paddy Power

He clearly wasn’t ready for this run, and needed it.

Haydock 3:55

Robot Boy ran better than his final placing suggests in the Portland 2 weeks ago and is probably better over 5 furlongs. He showed plenty of speed there and if he was to get away here in a similar vein he may be more difficult to pass over this trip and off a better mark. 25/1with Paddy Power is the value and id also be happy with the 20/1 available elsewhere.

1 Point win 25/1 Paddy Power.

He ran really well after being slow away to finish 4th, its possible the value will be gone next time of 5 furlongs.

 

 Newmarket 5:35

Field of Dream came back to form 2 runs ago and I wouldn’t be surprised if he can outrun his odds again. He was poor last time out which explains the big price but in these races I can easily forgive 1 run. He is well capable off this mark and at 20/1 worth the risk.

1 Point win 20/1 Generally

He Ran very poor and well have to leave him alone for a while now

Newmarket 3:50

I’ve been looking at this race a lot all week and along with my first selection I’ve been drawn to Fire Fighting at a huge price. Some of his handicap form this year is very good and I think his chance of getting involved here is very good for a 50/1 shot. He has been very consistent this year in big handicaps and that augers well for his place chance at least here. It’s asking a lot of this mark but he has a touch of class and is worth the risk at that price.

The other I’m going for here is Educate. He has had some strange looking runs this year and is of a very favourable mark over this favourite trip and course. I had set a bar of a price id get interested in and 28/1 is comfortably over that price.

½ Point EW 50/1 Fire Fighting 6 Places SKYBET 5 Places elsewhere

1 Point 28/1 Educate Generally

Neither ran up to form in an admittedly tough race.

Haydock  5:05

I can’t resist a small bet on Ile De Re here at a huge price. Alright he has been poor for a long time now but these really are his conditions and trip. He is down to a very low mark and gets genuine soft ground that he certainly needs. He has performed well of this kind of break before and if there is to be a time he will ever get back to some kind of form this race may well be it. 50/1 is just too big not to take the risk.

1 Point EW 50/1 Paddy Power & Coral

Ran like the 100/1 shot he went of on betfair. So it’ll be a while yet before he wins.