Catterick Dash 3:25
Rural Celebration has a great record on soft ground. She never really got in the race last time as the leaders were never caught but I wouldn’t be surprised if these conditions suited her. She has a couple of big field good runs this year and caught the eye in the Bronze Cup at Ayr. She looks the value at 12/1
1 Point win 12/1 Generally
This ran a great race to be 3rd (backed into 9/1) just not getting there after coming with a great run
Forgotton Rules won this race last year with a bit in hand and although he has been a bit disappointing this year, except for a good 3rd in the Gold Cup, I think he will be the one to beat in this race getting a bit of cut in the ground today. He has been trying to lead in shorter races on better ground but has lacked pace, that won’t matter today and I think he should be a fairly solid favourite here. 6/1 looks at least 2 points too big.
2 Points win 6/1 generally
This was an infuriating race to watch. He traveled like the best horse for much of the race and just could not get out in time in the Straight. It looked unlikely to me that he would have got to the winner but he never got the chance after being involved in a few scrimmages in the last 2 furlongs. He was backed into 9/2
The top 4 in the market here look very difficult to beat but really none of these are value at the current prices. Of the rest only Naadir at a huge price and Adaay really interest me. Naadir looks to me to be improving since he has been gelded mid-season and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he was involved on the finish here at a huge looking 50/1. I’m always looking to forgive a sprinter 1 bad run and Adaay fits into that category. He still has a few top class runs this season and it wouldn’t be a huge surprise if he could get back to that form today I think he is worth the risk at 25/1.
½ Point EW Naadir 50/1 4 Places 365/Sky
1 Point win Adaay 25/1 Sporting Bet & Betfair Exchange
I wouldn’t have been swapping the 50/1 about Naadir with a furlong left here as he was really travelling well but he got done for toe by the 3yo’s to finish 5th for another near miss. Adaay finished really well to finish 6th from the back of the field. We probably got the best value here with both Naadir being backed into 20/1 from 50’s.
We’ll start with the obvious one, Empire Storms chances of being involved in the finish here are huge given his course form and his last run. He is now on better terms with the 2 ahead of him last time at 20/1 with 5 places Bet365 is huge. I’d also be happy with 16/1 5 places or 20/1 with 4 places as in Boyles. He has everything in his favour. Also I’m going with 2 small win bets on my other 2 fancies as I can’t make up my mind on which to have a decent EW bet. Professor is of his lowest mark ever and has had a couple of eye-catching runs this year he looks value, in addition I like to look of Fort Bastion again of a decent mark and with some gradual improvement lately. I wouldn’t be surprised if this race was his main target.
1 Point ew 20/1 Empire Storms 5 places 365
½ Point win Professor 28/1 Sporting and bigger on Betfair Exchange
½ Point win Fort Bastion 25/1 sky/888/coral/betfair
Empire Storm and Fort Bastion ran well to be 6th and 7th just outside the paying places.