Volnay De Thaix disappointed on his second run over fences on heavy ground after a decent looking debut. I’m always willing to forgive one bad run in that ground and my gut is he has been targeted at a run here rather than the spin he had around Cheltenham over hurdles. He was good here last year just going down to Jezki and Rock On Ruby in the Aintree Hurdle and is the highest rated of these over hurdles. I just think his current price of 20/1 is significantly wrong given none of the superstars are in this race. His jumping on his debut was very good until 2 out and he still won that race against 2 very decent horses.
2 Points EW 20/1 ¼ 365 1/5th elsewhere
The favourite might be hard to beat here but he is no value at all and I quite like a couple at big prices to run well here. First of all I really liked the run of Khezerabad on his debut and wouldn’t be at all surprised if he was a good bit better here. Missing Cheltenham should be an advantage. Sceau Royal didn’t seem to like the fast ground and hill at the festival and I would think tomorrows ground might suit him better. I expect him to be a lot better here.
1 Point win Khezerabad 25/1 generally
1 Point win Sceau Royal 20/1 generally
Don Poli is a rather easy pick here given the very hard race that the top 2 had the Gold Cup. I would expect the softer ground to be huge for him and although it will also favour the top 2 I think he will gain the most as he is less likely to get outpaced. 6/1 looks great value
2 Points win 6/1 888 & 32 11/2 elsewhere
I think the top 2 are plenty short for this race, given how hard a race the favourite had at the festival. Mendip Express ran a great race over these fences 16 months ago in the Beacher Chase of a mark of 144, and if he can be ridden a bit more prominently here over these fences he should outrun his 14/1 price. The softer ground will help him as well over his reasonable festival run.
At a huge price here I like the look of Dineur. He was second last year around Aintree on a mark of 130 and around this trip is ideal. He was a very consistent chaser a couple of years ago and I think his 2 hunter chase runs are decent enough for one that never really performed on Heavy Ground. 66/1 with 4 places looks huge.
1 Point win Mendip Express boyles/vc/lads/hills
1 Point EW 66/1 4 places Dineur tote/fred/paddy/betfair
Croco Bay had an early fall in the Grand annual but I wouldn’t think he is the least likely here to win at a very big looking price. He is another that will be suited by the slight cut in the ground and has a couple of runs this year that have him in with a chance here. I’m sure he is primed for this time of the year and 25/1 looks a great price.
1 Point ew 25/1 365 22/1 elsewhere.
I dont really use a tracker much in NH racing but have to for the flat as there are better races mid week with horses im waiting for and dont want to miss. Jacks Revenge is a tracker horse for me and what it says is sure to run well over a mile on soft ground. He gets that today and has a very decent record of running well when fresh so today may be the best day to be on him. Half the field here can be ruled out with the ground and the 10/1 about my selection looks a bit of value id imagine he may go off about 7/1.
1 Point win 10/1 Generally
Ill be emailing the first of the Aintree bets later on today.