Grand National Day
5:15 Grand National
I’m going to start early with my best bet of the race. Home Farm has scraped in to this at the bottom of the handicap and although he has been a bit of a disappointing horse more than once he is on a mark there that if he does improve he could well be right in the firing line. On his first run for his current trainer he had a great win over a good field in Thurles and although he was a bit disappointing after he looks to have this race as a plan for a long time. He has had only run 2 hurdle races this year before coming here and it just ticks too many boxes from a very good trainer both around here and of chasers. He also has good form in the best trial for this race the Irish National with a good 3rd 2 years ago. 100/1 is just great value and although I’ll be taking advantage of bet365’s fantastic offer of free place bets, I can’t really include that in my figures as there the only bookie.
2 Points EW 100/1 5 Places 365/paddy/VC(6places)/lads/stan and others
My other longer term selection for this is Buywise at a big price. I think he is a strong stayer and although he will need to brush up his jumping which can happen over these fences anyway he looks value to me at 66/1. He doesn’t need to be very close to the leaders as they turn in to have a huge chance of finishing well up the long straight and he has had a nice light enough season and a decent break. 66/1 is value
1 Point EW 66/1 Boyles/Stan
I had my balls on the line for Sgt Reckless at the festival and although he was a disappointment there he did give me some hope over this kind of trip. The ground is improving so hopefully it won’t get any softer. I nearly fell of the chair when I saw Nina booked for this Amateur and conditionals race and that alone makes the 25/1 value. He is well in of a mark of 136 and hopefully he will give his running here.
1 Point EW 25/1 Generally
I had my mind made up that at 14/1 Silviniaco Conti would be great value for this race. Away from Cheltenham this horses record is nothing short of stellar in Grade 1 races and if he stays up here we could all be looking at ourselves after the race thinking of course sure he’s miles well in here. He is a strong traveller great jumper and in my view a strong stayer 14/1 is definatly too big.
2 Points win 14/1 Paddy/Betway/Betfair/boyles
Grand National Bet365 Offer
I’ll go for 1 more and do a small bet on the Bet365 offer that everyone should be able to take. I couldn’t put it up on every horse as I’m not sure of the max stake is enough for everyone but for 1 horse it will be fine. BallyCasey is a decent traveller and jumper. He came back to form last time at Cheltenham and really could be suited by this race. He was brought down last year after seeming to enjoy the fences and if he stays (which is the main question) he could travel do well her eof a very nice weight. 80/1 with 5 places on bet365 with half the bet back straight into the account is brilliant value and is basically 160/1 which is madness
1 Point EW 80/1 Bet365 (costing 1 point)
At fishers Cross has been poor enough his last 2 runs, but on softer ground here (Cheltenham may have been good-firm really) is think he has a decent chance of a nice mark with a 5 lbs claimer on. The EW part is poor value as if he is on form he wins and of not hell be last so I’ll go win only here.
1 Point win 25/1 generally
Aintree EW Double
I fancy The Game Changer to be second to Douvan here as the second favourite really hasn’t beaten anything yet. At 25/1 ¼ odd place he makes a very nice ½ of a ew double with Shaneshill at 14/1. Shaneshill is a very consistent horse and I think Different Gravy beat nothing last time out and isn’t at all proven at this level.
Both to place pays about 18/1 so it looks value.
1 Point EW double
Little john looks a horse with potential not so long ago and I think he is overpriced to get back to form here. He looks a stayer and the step up in trip could bring out the best in him. He was badly hampered at the festival so hopefully didn’t have a hard race there. This is actually a poor enough race and 33/1 looks value
1 Point EW 33/1 VC/Stan/32