Stone Hard has been a disappointing horse since his very good win in a top class Gowran maiden hurdle beating a couple of very good horses including yesterday’s winner for us Don’t Touch It. He hasn’t had a run at any of the other festival’s and hopefully can get back to form here on better ground over a longer trip which I would guess should suit him. I think there is an opening here if the favourite doesn’t perform as expected as there doesn’t appear to be much between the rest of them and my selection may not have been seen to best effect yet. 20/1 looks a bit of value
1 Point win 25/1 Hills, 22/1 Coral & Generally 20/1
Baden is interesting here at a decent price. He has a couple of fairly eye-catching runs in good novice hurdles in the uk and if he can run a bit less green in this he could have a decent shout getting weight from most of these. The favourite could well skate in here but doesn’t look a lot of value. Nickey knows how to get a winner here and 16/1 looks a decent price for one that could well improve for decent ground.
1 Point win 16/1 365/paddy/racebets
Turban had been kept this year for a tilt at the Topham but didn’t jump the first few at all well and threw the toys out of the pram. He was 4th in this last year after a much busier season and off a higher mark and if he can improve on that run he’ll be right in there with a chance here. He has to give a fair bit of weight away to a few here but on decent ground that won’t matter as much. 20/1 looks a decent price. We might have a saver on Ted Veale here who has been a super consistent horse over the last year or 2 and is on a decent mark over fences. He loves the good ground and 14/1 looks a bit of value win only.
1 Point EW 20/1 Turban 365/boyles/betfair/10
1 Point win Ted Veale 14/1 Sky/coral/hills
As much as I love Cue Card I have a feeling that this may be 1 race too many this year. I felt he got very tired right at the end of the Aintree race and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if that carried forward to here. He is very short anyway so no value. In trying to get the value against there are a few obvious one like Road to Riches but I don’t think he is as good this year and 11/1 is too short. This race shouldn’t suit Djakadam as he would need softer ground . Carlingford Lough might stay on past a few of these but again I think he may be better on softer ground. That leaves me with Don Poli and I think he may well be a bit of value at 7/1. He has had a light enough season and had a fairly easy race in Cheltenham. I just think he is easily the most likely to capitalize on a poor run from Cue Card if that happens.
1 Point win 7/1 Don Poli 365/boyles/stan/betfair
Montana Belle is certainly the most experienced bumper horse running here but she has a fair bit of eye-catching form for a horse at such a huge price. If we ignore her one poor run in the Champion bumper here last year the rest of her form would put her in with a much better than 50/1 shot here. She was 4th in this race 2 years ago but then ran 2 very good races at Cheltenham including an 8th in the Champion Bumper last year behind Moon Racer. She has moved to De Bromhead’s stable and she is surly here in this race for a reason.
1 Point EW 50/1 Paddy/Stan 40/1 elsewhere NON RUNNER