Punchestown Day 4

5:30

I think we may have a couple of major mistakes here in the betting. Vroom Vroom Vag has basically beaten nothing of note and in my view its total mental that it’s now favourite here. My guess is that My Tent or Yours may struggle after a fairly torrid race at Aintree, and Identity Thief is a hugely overrated horse still. That leaves me with the simplest pick imaginable in Sepmre Medici. He looked an improving horse this year until the Champion Hurdle where he simply couldn’t go the end to end gallop. It won’t be remotely like that tomorrow and is estimate him being a 6/1 shot or maybe 8/1 at most and the current 14/1 is way too big. If MTOY is well after his last 2 races he would win this on the bridle but that just can’t be assumed here.

2 Points win 14/1 365/sky/vc/sj/hills

4:20

Guitar Pete is a horse I’ve been waiting for to win this type of race and on the face of it last time out he was very poor, but that was simply too bad to believe and he may well be suited by the step up in trip here, which is the opposite of what I was thinking before. I still think he has a race like this in him of the current mark and I was shocked to see him in that egg and spoon race last time out. This is a more sensible target for a Grade 1 horse like him of a decent mark and is fairly similar to the winner we picked last year Blood Cotil. 20/1 is huge and if you have a paddy power account they have an extra place which is a big bonus here.

2 Points EW 20/1 boyles/paddy/betfair