National Hunt Chase
I’ve been looking at this race quite a few times in the last few days and I just can’t get past Arbe De Vie at a huge looking price for one with such potential. I’m not sure how many of these would be capable of a very unlucky second in a top 2m4 handicap hurdle of a mark of 144 on Good Ground. He has also finished 4th at the festival in the Alfred Bartlet when he looked a sure stayer even when that was on softer ground. He again ran well enough in the Coral Cup last year when possibly left with a bit too much to do but still finished in 10th only 5 lengths of the winner. I think he will be better on decent ground here and if his run behind the subsequently very good Acapella Bourgeois can be taken at face value, where he was only 4 lengths away in 2nd, this form stacks up well against the other Irish horses at the top of the market here. He jumped really well in that race and the whole package of a Good Ground stayer that can jump and with a bit speed is just about perfect for this race where the first lap is often slow enough. I’ll go for a win bet now at the huge looking price of 25/1 but might top up again on the day if 4 places are available. Im not that concerned which one Paddy chooses here, but I think he will be making a mistake not to be one the selection unless possibly Bellshill goes for this instead of the RSA.
2 Points win 25/1 365/VC/betfair