I’m loosing the plot here because I picked A Good Skin earlier while on the boat over and when I eventually get here he has been backed into 25/1 from 33/1 earlier. I still feel he is the value play EW here as he is 3 lbs lower than last years second to Cause or Causes. He is getting weight from nearly everything and has surly been readied for this race all year. I had a bigger bet in mind at the 33/1 price but well reduce it to a standard 1pt EW. I feel the place part is very good with his course form and 5 places.
1 Point EW 25/1 5 places 365/hills/paddy/vc 6 Places sky
This race has been wreaking my head as it looks a poor enough renewal. Ive finally settled on Hammersly Lake, who looks to have the best form in the race. He will be suited by the ground and has good festival form in the past with a decent run in the coral cup last year. He seems overpriced here at 18/1. Runs behind Le Prezien and Top Notch look the best form on offer.
1 Point win 18/1 sky/hills/vc/stan
Ive been flipping coins as to which of the big priced horses to go for in the EW market here and the dart has landed on A Hare Breath. His last run needs to be forgiven but that is always the case with a 50/1 shot. He strikes me as one that could run well in this race and can pick up the pieces to run into a place. He had a great run in the Greatwood hurdle this year and on ratings 50/1 is simply too big. He looks a 4 or 5/1 shot to place here so 12/1 is easily big enough to make a bet.
1 Point EW 50/1 1/4 odds 365 50/1 1/5 odds vc/paddy/betfair/coral
Previously advised running today
Last year I went for My Tent or Yours ew and he ran a great race after a long absence. I think he is being underestimated again this year. He is one of the only horses in the field with genuine Champion Hurdle form which is all that counts in this race. He hasn’t been great this year but between soft ground and not having the race run to suit at Christmas I think he could well be a different horse after a break at the festival. Of the shorter priced horses half won’t run and the other half are just out of novice company and don’t even look like the top of the novice tree from last year either. 50/1 NRNB is massive now with Faugheen out and when he turns up here he is a 20/1 shot at best. I’d be going for a bigger bet if there were more bookies at the 50/1 but we’ll leave it at 1 pt ew.
1 Point EW 50/1 NRNB totesport/Fred
Identity Thief Arkle NRNB
I’m temped to take a bit of the 16/1 nrnb before he runs today . It’s a simple case of if he performs well here he’ll run and have a chance if not he won’t run . On form he’ll be the 2nd best horse in the Arkle if going .
2 points ew 16/1 sky paddy Betfair . Arkle
Non Runner Money back
National Hunt Chase
I’ve been looking at this race quite a few times in the last few days and I just can’t get past Arbe De Vie at a huge looking price for one with such potential. I’m not sure how many of these would be capable of a very unlucky second in a top 2m4 handicap hurdle of a mark of 144 on Good Ground. He has also finished 4th at the festival in the Alfred Bartlet when he looked a sure stayer even when that was on softer ground. He again ran well enough in the Coral Cup last year when possibly left with a bit too much to do but still finished in 10th only 5 lengths of the winner. I think he will be better on decent ground here and if his run behind the subsequently very good Acapella Bourgeois can be taken at face value, where he was only 4 lengths away in 2nd, this form stacks up well against the other Irish horses at the top of the market here. He jumped really well in that race and the whole package of a Good Ground stayer that can jump and with a bit speed is just about perfect for this race where the first lap is often slow enough. I’ll go for a win bet now at the huge looking price of 25/1 but might top up again on the day if 4 places are available. Im not that concerned which one Paddy chooses here, but I think he will be making a mistake not to be one the selection unless possibly Bellshill goes for this instead of the RSA.
2 Points win 25/1 365/VC/betfair
Day 1 Overpriced double
I’ve had a bit of success with these “I’m having a bad day” accums before at Cheltenham before. These aren’t necessarily my picks in the races but I feel there is a double available in a few places that is certainly overpriced. Petit Mouchoir is 7/1 in the Champion Hurdle and Apples Jade is 5/1 in the Mares. Both of these should possibly be fav for both races and as much as I’d be tempted with a bigger EW bet I’ll go with a small win double as I can’t let it pass at these prices
1 Point win Double Petit Mouchir & Apples Jade 48/1 Paddy & Betfair 44/1 Sky