Bright new dawn is stepping back up in trip here and has been running well all this year for his new trainer. He strikes me as one that will take to this test. He came good at this time last year winning a very good handicap at Punchestown of a 1lb higher mark and also caught the eye last time out in the Grand Annual when probably caught for pace near the end after traveling really well. I think 40/1 is a huge price with 6 places for a very consistent horse.
I’m also going for Quite By Chance who started the season in top form and if he can improve after his little break and run in the Grand Annual he could also run a big race here at a big price.
1 Point EW 40/1 Bright new dawn 6 places Paddy 33/1 6 places Sky
1 Point ew 33/1 Quite By Chance 6 places Sky/Paddy
I think 9/2 is just too big about Moon Racer here. He just never got going in the champion hurdle and this race is light years weaker. He should be able to travel well here and if he is anywhere near 100% he will be hard to pass in the finish. He will go off shorter. I have a sneaky suspicion that American Gigolo will improve here and I’m going to go with a small place bet at 16/1
2 Points win Moon Racer 9/2 stan/32/888
½ Point place American Gigolo 16/1 Sky/365
I’m not convinced that Gods Own is really in top form this year and to my eye Sub Lieutenant may want a sterner test. This race should be the just right for Josses Hill. He has looked better than ever this year apart from the Ryanair, which really doesn’t suit him. This race over all looks very tight with any of the field holding a chance. 14/1 looks value as I think he is more of an 8/1 shot here.
1 Point win 14/1 Paddy/Betfair/Betbright
I think this flat track 3 miles on good ground is really going to suit strong flat stayer Beyond Conceit . He was superb in the Supreme despite it probably being too short a trip. He is certainly going to travel well here and give us value for our bet at a big looking 16/1, considering none of the top 3miles novices are here.
1 Point win 16/1 Generally
This is a tough race but I like the look of unexposed Crievehill who ran a decent race in the County when it is probably just too good a race for him. He is on a nice mark here now in this weaker race over a longer trip and I think that will suit him. His 3rd behind Neon Wolf and Elgin reads well considering the time of that race and the fact he stayed on well at the end. He looks value at 33/1
1 Point EW 33/1 Generally