There is nothing I like more than watching a horse being supported for what appears years, at prices that are too short, to then row in when the price is big. Donncha is certainly value here. He always looks like a horse that needs further when he runs over a mile but I’m convinced he just needs a really fast 7 furlongs and he is going to get that here. He is also possibly drawn well in 18. He is well capable of this mark and 28/1 and 5 places with paddy and betfair is just a huge price.
2 Points EW 28/1 Paddy & Betfair 5 places
Naadirr is a horse I expected to give me a big payday at some stage a few years ago. He nearly did that when 5th in a group 1 at a huge price. This time last year he won a very good conditions race giving him a mark of about 108. He had a few solid runs after that and also ran well a few times of high marks in Mayden. He had a fairly normal Mayden headache on his comeback in May and hopefully that has put him right for a big run here. He can certainly perform of this mark and hopefully the step back to 5 will be fine for a strong traveller. 40/1 is worth the risk to find out
1 Point EW 40/1 vc/coral/black 33/1 Generally
I’m not 100% sure that the 3yo’s are as good as they seem. I suppose we will know today but Caravaggio looks very short to me and that is making a lot of decent horses a bigger price than I would expect. In these sprints what I like is a horse that has shown the form before to be competitive at a huge price. Growl fits the bill today. He was a very good 2nd in the Group 1 Champions Sprint at Ascot at the end of last year after improving all year. He had a couple of underwhelming performances earlier this year but I’m always willing to forgive a sprinter. This race could well be run to suit and it should be a mad pace early and I think a few could begin to panic early as Harry Angel won’t be easy to peg back. Growl will be closing late and I’m hopeful enough of him getting involved to be very interested in the 100/1 available. I don’t this he is a 20/1 shot to place here.
1 Point EW 100/1 vc/paddy/betfair 80/1 365 ¼ place
G-Force looks to be getting back to form at the end of last year. He was a superb 4th in the Ayr Gold cup of a higher mark and is a big price here because of a poor performance in Ascot on the wrong side. I’m certain that today’s race will be high in the plans for him this year and with a 7lbs claimer on of this mark if he gets back to last year’s form he will be very close. 25/1 is certainly value and I can see him being backed.
2 Points EW 25/1 Generally
After the fav here there is very little between most of the rest of these. Intricately is in that group that has a decent chance of getting involved here and her price is huge compared to other fillies near her level like Rain Goddess and Alluringly. If the step up suits her 50/1 is a big price for her
1 Point EW 50/1 fred/vc/paddy/betfair
Dragon Mall finished with plenty left in the tank last time after a very slow start. He has some very decent group race form and has been running well of higher marks than todays. The draw probably isn’t the best but might suit a closer anyway. 33/1 is overpriced and hopefully he gets away in decent time today. He also has first time blinker on.
1 Point EW 28/1 5 places paddy 33/1 4 places sporting/coral/black