This race is a head wreaker for me as I had Donjuan Triumphant in mind for this for ages, especially if the ground was on the soft side. He was 33/1 all week and I waited for extra places etc and now he is 20/1 so the value is gone. I’m going to go with a lot of the trainers opinion instead a general opinion that high draw may be best. Mobsta has a couple of eye-popping runs this year on softer ground that would put him right in the picture here. A repeat of his Duke of York run from earlier this year would actually be enough to win here and after a few bad runs of fast ground he looked a bit better last time out. My guess is he will be ready to fire today at a huge price. The more I look at it Growl may well be far too good for thee with a very good 7lbs claimer on but I just can’t go with an 8/1 fav in this field. Unfortunately with no value low in going to have to go with another high draw. Outback Travelerpaint will like the ground we can safely assume that he is well capable of picking up another of these race soon enough and 28/1 is value of a workable mark.
1.5 Points EW Mobsta 50/1 7 places Sky 50/1 6 places Ladbrokes/Coral
1 Point Win Outback Traveller28/1 Hills/Lads
Felix Mendelssohn looks a real stayer and has form in the book already that makes his current mark look doable. He has a lovely racing weight and is actually fairly unexposed compared to a lot of these. If he improved from his very good seasonal reappearance he will be close. The ground shouldn’t be any problem. 12/1 is decent for what looks one of the more likely winners
1 Point win 12/1 Generally
I’m a sucker for a 3 figure price. Retreive has been on the downgrade but some of his runs have shown promise that and increase in fitness would give him hope. HE also has pleny of form on soft. Don’t get me wrong he is a 50/1 shot at best but 50/1 shots that are prices at up to 125/1 have to be backed. His mark and a 7lbs claimer with a low weight mught just wake him up.
1 Point EW 125/1 Lads 100/1 Generally
Stellarta ran well in this last year. I think there is a chance she will be better on softer ground even though there is no evidence yet to prove it. She is very consistent on the AW surface and that augurs well for this surface. 28/1 seems a decent price for a consistent horse that might just be hard to know out of the 5 here.
1 Points EW 28/1 5 places paddy/fred/tote